FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 23 minutes ago, wake4est said: No joke, they brined the roads today in Raleigh. We've had some shifts to colder surface temps today. One more shift colder and Raleigh is in an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 It might not be perfect but the fv3 has shown ice/low farther north hybrid whatever u Wana call it for several days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Nasty sounding in NE GA on the 3km NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Frame before that actually has surface temp as low as 24. Gotta think the NAM is overdoing it otherwise that’s gonna be quite the ice storm. Ice doesn’t worry me with borderline temps, but if it gets into mid 20s the damage will be done before wedge gets scoured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Does anyone think this will be a situation in which Northern NC and Southern VA get placed under an ICE Storm Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Does anyone think this will be a situation in which Northern NC and Southern VA get placed under an ICE Storm Warning? Not unless they start thinking someone will get .5 inches of ice. I don't anticipate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Does anyone think this will be a situation in which Northern NC and Southern VA get placed under an ICE Storm Warning? I think there's a chance. I know .25" of freezing rain warrants a Winter Storm criteria, but I'm not sure what warrants an ice storm warning. Edit: Thanks CentralNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Does anyone think this will be a situation in which Northern NC and Southern VA get placed under an ICE Storm Warning? They usually use WSW with mixed precipitation. It does seem like there's going to be a pretty decent sized swath of ice somewhere with this storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Maybe we can get the mulch white: out to 48 (18z) furtherest it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Notice Dew points over Mack in the teens at this same time frame. lot of virga probably with this pup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z trending 2-4 degrees colder over southern NC/SC/Ga. with dewpoints vs. 12z and this is only out to 30 hours -- pretty significant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z GFS is also ever so colder with the surface temps for the main event. It now has ice just past Greensboro; whereas at 12z it was just NW. Also it has more development for the Monday event. Lots of 1/2 to 1" totals across central NC up into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18z GFS 10:1 ratios. Most of central NC totals are from the Monday event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 18z GFS 10:1 ratios. Most of central NC totals are from the Monday event: Yeah it had a weird little fart of frozen something Sunday night and then filled in a tiny bit more. Interesting for sure, but not optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I know it's the Rgem but it looks healthy at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'm also surprised that WINTER STORM WATCHES have not been issued yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Really wish this was coming in Sat morning!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: I'm also surprised that WINTER STORM WATCHES have not been issued yet. Tomorrow, as needed. Most of the precip would be overnight Sat night then into Sunday and lingering into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Tomorrow, as needed. Most of the precip would be overnight Sat night then into Sunday and lingering into Monday. Agree that’s it’s a little early yet. 18z NAM gave gso 0.51 of freezing rain. Was about half that at 12z. Mainly temps were a degree or so colder. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: I'm also surprised that WINTER STORM WATCHES have not been issued yet. I don't know about VA but the current forecast for the Triad is an advisory level event right now and obviously less south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, beanskip said: 18z trending 2-4 degrees colder over southern NC/SC/Ga. with dewpoints vs. 12z and this is only out to 30 hours -- pretty significant change. 22 dewpoint... I got a feeling some major crap is gonna hit the fan if each run keeps dropping. However, that is for midnight on SATURDAY, we need the dews for Saturday night to be that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Agree that’s it’s a little early yet. 18z NAM gave gso 0.51 of freezing rain. Was about half that at 12z. Mainly temps were a degree or so colder. TW Afternoon pkgs tomorrow will probably have watches in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GSP afternoon disco: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 PM EST Thursday: The latest trends suggest more of a warm nose developing in model profiles for the weekend wintry weather event. This will toggle our forecast a bit further toward the freezing versus frozen end of the ptype spectrum, but still with a very mixed mag of ptypes across mainly western NC. We expect this event to unfold from the influence of a 500 mb trough deepening slightly over the southern plains on Friday night. The resulting upper trough is expected to remain strongly positively tilted, with the main shortwave and associated DPVA moving toward the southern Appalachians Saturday through Saturday night. A coupled upper jetlet structure will set up east of the trough to provide the best deep-layer forcing Saturday night. Isentropic lift could start up from the south a bit earlier on Saturday as southerly flow sets up over a developing surface-based cold layer strengthening from 1033 mb high pressure over Pennsylvania. The Friday night through Saturday forecast remains difficult because profiles will be far from saturated, but the cool and dry air could wet bulb down to support some sleet and snow at onset across a good chunk of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia, especially if moisture flux from the eastern Gulf of Mexico arrives at lower levels a bit sooner than expected. However, the deepest moisture and forcing should begin to arrive Saturday evening and cross the region overnight through Sunday. Although the upglide diminishes a bit as winds turn more westerly through the day on Sunday, steeper lapse rates under the lower heights aloft could increase precipitation rates under redeveloping showers. Regarding the thermal setup, the 1033 mb surface high pressure will provide a very favorable cold air damming setup by daybreak on Saturday. Surface wet bulb temperatures will become increasingly critical Saturday night as the wedge becomes entrenched. The cooler raw model guidance will be followed in this regard. A NAM/GFS blend on profiles will bring a more robust warm nose across the region to trend precipitation from frozen to freezing Saturday night from south to north, with the best chance of advisory level, or better, snow/ice accumulations occurring along and north of I-40. Since the heaviest of the wintry precipitation will occur in period 5, and we are we still bouncing around on QPF and ptypes given the likely transitions, we will hold off on any Watch issuance for at least another model cycle and keep the Outlook information going. Mid-level dry slotting will likely wrap in from the southwest late Sunday through Sunday night. In addition, the briefly warmer temps and profiles by Sunday afternoon will start cooling again from the north through Sunday night as the surface low pressure system gets wrapped up offshore and begins to pull away. This could lead to a transition back to snow showers from north to south across western NC for late weekend. Additional vorticity will remain very channeled south of the elongated trough axis through Sunday night, so precipitation rates should be a bit lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Well everything I'm reading says most models are starting to come in colder than anticipated but GSP isn't sounding that way yet, anyhow maybe if models keep showing this by morning it will reflect in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 They're waiting on the 0z suite before back peddling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 18z Euro bumped up with precip overall and has solid amounts thru our forum (though not hefty). Temps were similar, maybe just a touch warmer. For GSP-CLT-RDU, the Euro has high temps around 40 degrees on Saturday with dewpoints from 20-25...during the height of the precip, the temps hover around 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, griteater said: 18z Euro bumped up with precip overall and has solid amounts thru our forum (though not hefty). Temps were similar, maybe just a touch warmer. For GSP-CLT-RDU, the Euro has high temps around 40 degrees on Saturday with dewpoints from 20-25...during the height of the precip, the temps hover around 34 degrees. @griteaterCan you show the Snow and Ice map from the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FWIW, the SREF plumes for RDU show a mean of almost 1"... I know they aren't that reliable, but I'm still surprised they even show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hour 42 Nam 0z has snow all Triad Cant post map on phone. Off PIvotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @griteaterCan you show the Snow and Ice map from the 18z Euro? you mean this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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