Waiting on snow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Welcome back to reality! December spoiled people. This one is a painful reminder that this is the south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6z Nam total qpf through 84 hours as this Novelity is pulling away: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: 6z Nam total qpf through 84 hours as this Novelity is pulling away: .05" of rain for me? I call so much bs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I really don't know what to believe with the models. I suppose good old fashion meteorology is what we need to be looking at. We'll need to keep an eye on how low the dew points / wet bulbs get, and I know I'll be closely reading RAH/NWS discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 RAH believes we'll have mostly freezing/frozen here in the triad. The euro supported that with about .60" falling before 9 am Sunday as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Honestly, I think we need a decent bump south and a couple of degrees to make warning criteria here in the triad. Hope it works out. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Friendly reminder to keep whining to the banter or sanitarium thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: RAH believes we'll have mostly freezing/frozen here in the triad. The euro supported that with about .60" falling before 9 am Sunday as a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Honestly, I think we need a decent bump south and a couple of degrees to make warning criteria here in the triad. Hope it works out. TW I'm thinking this is gonna wind up on the dried fruit side of the envelope and qpf isnt gonna be stout enough to get to warning criteria more so than temps. But temps have their issues as well. If its a cold rain, oh well. Was only hopeful to get a 2-3 inch snow out of this earlier last weekend when the chase started in earnest. Good news is we can root for the colder surface temps and safely see the lmbs only coated in about .25 of ice. That will be safe and not cause any power issues. Also pattern looks like we should be chasing a big dog next weekend. Looks like potential for one to run up the coast which usually invites temp issues, but it can work out for alot of folks as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: 6z Nam total qpf through 84 hours as this Novelity is pulling away: Of course I Jackpot, because it’s rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We get one good one a year maybe. We already had that. It is extremely tough to reel in a second system in NC in any given year outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: We get one good one a year maybe. We already had that. It is extremely tough to reel in a second system in NC in any given year outside the mountains. It's January 10 and the pattern has sucked the past few weeks. That's like saying tropical season is over on the last day of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It's January 10 and the pattern has sucked the past few weeks. That's like saying tropical season is over on the last day of August. I am simply saying it is rare to get more than 1 good snow event in any given winter east of the mountains in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am simply saying it is rare to get more than 1 good snow event in any given winter east of the mountains in NC. And I wholeheartedly agree with you. It just seemed that you were inferring that winter is over outside the mountains or that there wont be any other decent snows. It still seems to be a consensus that we are still going to enter the pattern we were looking for all fall soon (maybe) Also, the Euro took a step south last night with wintry precip and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: I am simply saying it is rare to get more than 1 good snow event in any given winter east of the mountains in NC. I don’t know. I guess it depends what you mean by good, but the Triad and NW Piedmont outside the mountains tend to reel in at least two to three decent snow events each season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: I don’t know. I guess it depends what you mean by good, but the Triad and NW Piedmont outside the mountains tend to reel in at least two to three decent snow events each season. Good for this region is warning level (3 inches or greater I believe). Obviously getting to double digits is very rare for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 RAH stills gives us a little hope for something. ZR is my fear though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 32 minutes ago, eyewall said: We get one good one a year maybe. We already had that. It is extremely tough to reel in a second system in NC in any given year outside the mountains. Statistically you are correct. However a significant snowfall in early December is anomalous. If the "one good one" happens in Jan, Feb or even early March I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, eyewall said: We get one good one a year maybe. We already had that. It is extremely tough to reel in a second system in NC in any given year outside the mountains. Happens more than you'd think, especially for foothills, western Piedmont. Also depends on how one defines "A Good One." If you look back at land falling Hurricanes over the past 100+ years in US. You'll notice each decade is different. You go through cycles where you have several years of multiple hits, then several years of no activity. Winter patterns are the same and no doubt come n go. Its important to realize that we aren't located in the Great lakes. So we aren't getting multiple double digit snowfalls in the same winter. However you can go back to periods like January 2000. Everyone remembers the crusher. But here in the Triad we where under 4 separate winter storm warnings in a 2 week span that winter. One of which was the crusher. That was an abysmal winter pattern that year, save for the last couple of weeks of January. There are others I could site, but its usually multiple events of 2-6 inches of mixed events that happen 3 or 4 times. Not saying its a common theme every other year. My criteria for a good one is a winter Storm warning. That can be defined or reached with 4+ snow or .25+ freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 IMO, the storm in December has no bearing on the rest of the winter, not that anyone is saying that it is. I’ve seen several times the stat about we don’t usually get more than one big snow event. While true, I don’t see the value in such a metric, as it pertains to how the rest of the winter is likely to play out. It would be the same as if we hadn’t gotten a big storm already and someone used the same stat in a “we’re due” manner. It only really matters as a footnote. Realistically, more than half of the winter is left, and we likely haven’t even gotten into the most favorable climo period or pattern that we are likely to see. I’d say, based on that, the odds of another significant winter storm or two are fairly high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z nam has a wetbulb of 26-27 at 18z saturday, Gboro and precip hasnt arrived yet, hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, NCSNOW said: 12z nam has a wetbulb of 26-27 at 18z saturday, Gboro and precip hasnt arrived yet, hour 57. That high is coming in a little stronger (compared to 6z) as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Quote I’ve seen several times the stat about we don’t usually get more than one big snow event. Agreed. If a quarter lands on heads 10 times in a row, the odds are still 50 percent on the 11th flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12 NAM looks to be a significant ice storm for northern foothills and NW Piedmont into S VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: 12 NAM looks to be a significant ice storm for northern foothills and NW Piedmont into S VA. Still not finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 What the NAM shows as ZR the Euro shows as snow over the same areas. 6-8" in Stuart and 2" here in INT-GSO. So is the Euro suggesting a better thermal profile aloft? Or is the NAM the favorite for sniffing out ZR this close? Something seems off here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: What the NAM shows as ZR the Euro shows as snow over the same areas. 6-8" in Stuart and 2" here in INT-GSO. So is the Euro suggesting a better thermal profile aloft? Or is the NAM the favorite for sniffing out ZR this close? Something seems off here. Lots of ice on the Euro too. Shows .25 inches of ice on the detailed wxbell maps for the entire Triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Lots of ice on the Euro too. Shows .25 inches of ice on the detailed wxbell maps for the entire Triad. Got it. Just read RAHs 4am synopsis as well and they appear to be suggesting a blend of both precip types for the triad including 1-2" of snow and .25 ZR. So its both. Sloppy Sunday incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Got it. Just read RAHs 4am synopsis as well and they appear to be suggesting a blend of both precip types for the triad including 1-2" of snow and .25 ZR. So its both. Sloppy Sunday incoming! Yeah I think in Triad it will be primarily remembered as an ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: And I wholeheartedly agree with you. It just seemed that you were inferring that winter is over outside the mountains or that there wont be any other decent snows. It still seems to be a consensus that we are still going to enter the pattern we were looking for all fall soon (maybe) Also, the Euro took a step south last night with wintry precip and snow. no comment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Only goes out to 48, so starting to get in range with nam. Gives us some new tools to start watching for trends: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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