Buddy1987 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Boy this thread died quickly!! Dang yea it did! Hard to have a conversation with anyone bc I’m literally stuck in the middle of two threads with my geographic location. One being here and one being in the Mid Atlantic. Don’t want to be that guy that asks imby questions so gonna have to rely on watching model trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCentralWakeCo Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1083195116297302016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 NAM gave GSO 0.24” of zr by 7 am Sunday morning with 30 degrees and moderate zr continuing. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The NAM is a mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, BornAgain13 said: The NAM is a mess... Good or bad? also when is next model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Quite a bit of Ice for the triad on the NAM. Models are rolling in over the next hour or so. ICON is out to 90 and is south of 18z. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Keep an eye on radar tonight. Might get a quick snow shower northern ciastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z NAM freezing rain totals through 7am Sunday. I-40 Corridor looks to be the zone for best icing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Canadian just crushes N.C. CAD areas with ice. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 0z GFS and 0z Canadian both move north.... next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Orangeburgwx fail. Cant deliver a simple 2-4" snowfall. Drops 14" on me in December and now crushes me with ZR. Cant deal with these extremes. Gonna need to vote in a new thread starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z GFS and 0z Canadian both move north.... next Gfs wasn’t North. Has the low going S of ATL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Canadian just crushes N.C. CAD areas with ice. Wow. Total QPF of .50, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Gfs wasn’t North. Has the low going S of ATL Must be lack of high pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: Total QPF of .50, maybe? 1.25 in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 One of the experts like @griteater or someone else can help here... I noticed one of the locals here suggesting we get more snow than what is modeled ... his reasoning is because of how far south the cold dry air will be and the evaporational cooling... he said the models dont take that into effect... just curious yalls opinion... hes a great meterologist... and he says he is confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: 1.25 in NC And most of it falls with temps in the Upper 20s from Morganton to Hillsborough in the middle of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: One of the experts like @griteater or someone else can help here... I noticed one of the locals here suggesting we get more snow than what is modeled ... his reasoning is because of how far south the cold dry air will be and the evaporational cooling... he said the models dont take that into effect... just curious yalls opinion... hes a great meterologist... and he says he is confident. Curious, what forecaster or station covers your area? Someone in Danville or the Triad stations? You are about 40 miles north of GSO, plus some elevation. So this event could certainly be quite different for you vs N NC and the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said: Curious, what forecaster or station covers your area? Someone in Danville or the Triad stations? You are about 40 miles north of GSO, plus some elevation. So this event could certainly be quite different for you vs N NC and the piedmont. ABC 13 out of Lynchburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Cmc amps and keeps primary to strong while all other guidance fizzles it,then it still keeps the primary going after the coastal revs up. You can see thats not supose to happen at h5. 0z runs so far has nam, gfs icon all agree the primary shears out west to east and the runing into the mtns,cad dome and press from the north is gonna chew this thing up. Whats left energy wise will be on life suport by time it transfers or reforms off SC coast. Looking like euro had right idea from earlier this week and lets lead wave dampen out and we get light moisture over cad as passes just to the south of NC and heads off coast ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: ABC 13 out of Lynchburg Flickenger? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I give up on anything coming down and out of the Rockies. Unless it's a baja low that traverses the waters of the GOM, I'm not interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: ABC 13 out of Lynchburg I hear you my friend. But Lynchburg is quite a bit different than Danville. Danville is one of those towns right in the middle of two tv markets. Right smack between the Triad, and the Roanoke/Lynchburg area. Makes it difficult to get an accurate forecast compared to other locales, because you don't have a met paid to specialize in that area. In addition, you're also on the border between Blacksburg and Raleigh NWS offices. Both of them try, but the reality is that they typically build their 'base' forecast based on where they are HQed, and then go out from there.. I should clarify that I lived in Danville for a bit during my teen years. Yours truly was dissapointed more than once when focusing on the VA mets for potential storm impacts. They surely meant well. But in the end, I found that taking what was predicted in Winston-Salem was a pretty accurate forecast for what would happen in Danville. (and that meant focusing on the Triad Mets instead of VA) Edit: I just realized you're in Dry Fork instead of Danville. But seeing how that is S of Chatham, I don't think it's too much of a difference between the N outskirts of Danville Proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Gheezzzzz, this is worse than trying to thread a needle, NEXT!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS hellbent on that ATL to CAE track! Yawn, so foothills see a little mix. Next weekend is a Rainer event!! This pattern change is amazeballs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Sampling day as all the pieces finally come onshore. So if there are corrections to be made, today is it. I really dont want to be sitting here Sunday without power and playoff games. So if ZR is the only option, lets punt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Man what's up with the NAM. I don't know if you cry or laugh at this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Well here is the 0z CMC for freezing rain. It's basically the last model showing a significant storm for areas from NW Ga to Charlotte to Raleigh. You would have to lean towards the other models but it is what it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Are ensembles (euro) still showing anything for Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 And from RAH: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 430 AM Thursday... The focus of the long term again remains on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Latest suite of model guidance is indicating generally less snowfall amounts across the NW Piedmont, with slightly greater ice accretion. Any slight changes in the thermal profiles though can drastically change precipitation amounts and types. Synoptic setup: During the day Saturday an omega block will initially be setup across Idaho/ Montana with an upper level trough axis centered just east of Maine. Over Kansas and Missouri a shortwave trough will be lodged between the two. By late Saturday night into early Sunday morning some of the energy from the trough axis will head east while some energy remains over the Midwest. Another shortwave over California will then be pulled underneath the ridge transitioning the Omega block to a Rex block. At the surface polar surface high pressure will be located over Ontario. A surface low pressure will also be heading east across Mississippi/ Alabama. Late Saturday night into Sunday morning still shows the most impressive upper level support as surface low pressure will strengthen near the North Carolina/ South Carolina coast, with the RAH CWA located between the subtropical and polar jet streams. The split jet puts RAH in a LFQ (subtropical jet) and RRQ (polar jet). During the day Sunday multiple rounds of PVA will wash across the region as energy from the Midwest continues to eject east. Monday into Tuesday morning the remaining upper level energy will push east offshore as the block breaks down. Precip chances: Much of the day Saturday looks to be dry as 0.20" PWATs will take some time to modify. GFS forecast soundings show low level dry air (in the 700 mb to 975 mb layer) remaining through most of the day with widespread mid and upper level clouds. Saturday night into Sunday morning, or 03z Sunday into 18z Sunday, still appears to be the time period with the greatest chance of precipitation and QPF amounts. Strong DCVA and split jet dynamics (as mentioned above) will provide impressive upper level lift. Current FGEN fields also support the best QPF totals across central North Carolina (near U.S. 1). Sunday afternoon, mid and upper level dry air will pour into the region helping to support lessening PoPs. Low level saturation will remain though Monday and with the trough axis still west of the area have kept PoPs in. Precipitation type: Latest suite of model runs have advertised slightly warmer thermal profiles (and therefore thicknesses) which would support more freezing rain (and less snow) than previous runs. The best chance for wintry precipitation will be Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Taking a look at forecast soundings and max temperatures aloft, the chance for any pure snow precipitation appears transient for most of the CWA. The NAM would support some IP mixing in (at least) for most of the time across the entire CWA. The only exception would be across the far northern zones and the NW Piedmont. The ECMWF and GFS are very similar to one another with snow possible mainly along and north and west of Interstate 85. The transition looks to be quick though with only about a ~6 hr window between 00z Sunday and 06z Sunday with all snow supported. After 06z Sunday soundings profiles across the northwest change over to IP and eventually FZRA. South and east of Interstate 85 the chance of seeing pure snow falls off pretty quickly with the primary threat being FZRA. Temperatures for FZRA will be marginal, but with dewpoints Saturday afternoon in the 20s, wet bulbing should help bring lows down Sunday morning to below freezing (mainly north and west of U.S. 1). Sunday afternoon saturation in the DGZ will be lost helping to transition precipitation lighter with more of a drizzle and freezing drizzle supported. Amounts: Snowfall amounts have been decreased slightly with an inch or two possible in the Triad with amounts quickly falling off near the Triangle. Ice amounts have been raised slightly, with totals up to around a tenth of an inch possible (again mainly near Interstate 85). Tuesday into Wednesday the trough axis will be southeast of the region with weak high pressure overhead. High temperatures will slowly recover into the 50s by Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement here with shortwave energy heading east towards the Ohio Valley Wednesday. As of current the area looks dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.