Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Have fun, time to see if I keep batting 1.000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Let's reel it in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Let's reel it in!! Are you sure you want to reel this in (12z CMC): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow haven Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 yes! that's means in get paid for working from home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 96 hours-ish from potential precip start here in NC Triad. Reel. It. In. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 I swear if I go 2/2 I should start every winter thread (jk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Are you sure you want to reel this in (12z CMC): Except the CMC!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, CARDC79 said: 96 hours-ish from potential precip start here in NC Triad. Reel. It. In. I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm. 12z NAM dew points: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z UKMet has the parent low way up in N MS, but the endpoint is still a low moving off the NC coast (with damming in between). GFS/CMC/UKMet from 12z are fairly similar. The damming high yields a fairly high chance for an impactful, mixed precip winter storm over the favored CAD areas IMO. I would be surprised if this moves to a more snowy solution over the coming days, and a way north, low impact event with mostly rain seems unlikely as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm. 12z NAM dew points: Just remembering the past few storms but does the Nam tend to overdo the cold at it's outer range? Always seems to show a great solution initially and trend warmer closer to the event. Probably depends on the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z UKMet has the parent low way up in N MS, but the endpoint is still a low moving off the NC coast (with damming in between). GFS/CMC/UKMet from 12z are fairly similar. The damming high yields a fairly high chance for an impactful, mixed precip winter storm over the favored CAD areas IMO. I would be surprised if this moves to a more snowy solution over the coming days, and a way north, low impact event with mostly rain seems unlikely as well UK seem to show Snow to ICE for southern VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm. 12z NAM dew points: That dew point for me is 18 degrees.... Good lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Thor said: Just remembering the past few storms but does the Nam tend to overdo the cold at it's outer range? Always seems to show a great solution initially and trend warmer closer to the event. Probably depends on the system. The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just a thought but for the last two years ive had snow around 7th-9th in December and Around the same time in January too ironically. if this storm verifys it will be 3 years in a row with snow around the same time frame in January. Climatology maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, FallsLake said: The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS. When is the expected onset of precip in our area? Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z GEFS had a little jump in QPF compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, CaryWx said: When is the expected onset of precip in our area? Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well. Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday: Saturday A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Seen DPs shoot up rapidly in situations like this as well. Moisture influx is a double edge sword that we can't get rid of. Yes, it increases totals, but at the same time in draws in warm air like a vacuum cleaner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Wet bulb is a better indicator than dp as it basically factors in saturating the atmosphere TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday: Saturday A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal. Try clicking a few miles south and you'll see the rain enter the forecast for southern Wake. The point-and-click is already showing the traditional rain/snow line through Wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GEFS had a little jump in QPF compared to 6z Looks slightly warmer as well -->The high to the north is slightly weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: Looks slightly warmer as well -->The high to the north is slightly weaker. It looks like means should hold steady, just for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 12z GEFS had a little jump in QPF compared to 6z 12Z GEFS looked like it bumped stronger with the storm, bit more amped, a bit north. High a touch weaker, but a 1040 is still solid. Wish it would creep down to Merica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just looking at my sounding, it looks like my back yard is literally on the sleet/snow line for the best precip, followed by freezing rain. I dont think it could be any closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Notice qpf spike futher east with latter development. Have to watch this transition line and timing of the mix if it involves freezing rain. Nothing like 2-4 inches of snow and .50+ freezing rain on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Notice qpf spike futher east with latter development. Have to watch this transition line and timing of the mix if it involves freezing rain. Nothing like 2-4 inches of snow and .50+ freezing rain on top. Notice where the blue is? Same areas Florence hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 UKIE is nice: 6 most of triad and I40 east past Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 UKMET with a killer run. Half a foot(or more depending) from Lake Norman to South Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: UKMET with a killer run. Half a foot(or more depending) from Lake Norman to South Boston. Maps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Gefs is ramped up qpf as well. seeing alot of 1.0-1.25: No suprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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