Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, zinski1990 said: yep us here in central Indiana know more than most on this forum about getting the shaft. GHD 2011 even over an inch of ice was forecasted here we got mostly sleet too Speaking of ice. I'm still trying to figure out why KIND is forecasting freezing rain as a possibility up here. I haven't seen a model warm the column up this way. Might be above my head why but not sure why we are getting freezing rain mixed when points south aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I feel like some of you are being too conservative. I get it though. Agreed. At least for the spots that aren't sweating a northern gradient, it seems like most everyone is fairly conservative at the moment. Seems like a widespread 3-6" for IN and most of OH. Central/Southern IL and most of MO are almost guaranteed warning criteria snows. STL the real winners, which you don't get to say often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Jackstraw said: Speaking of ice. I'm still trying to figure out why KIND is forecasting freezing rain as a possibility up here. I haven't seen a model warm the column up this way. Might be above my head why but not sure why we are getting freezing rain mixed when points south aren't. It could be maybe the heavy freezing drizzle possibility? I know in Iowa NORTH of the snow shield they’re forecasting freezing drizzle. If that gets heavy enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm not sure if I've ever seen models this aggressive with QPF in St. Louis. I have my doubts that we'll see 10:1 ratios, but who knows. I will say that during the March 2013 storm the temperature remained above freezing during a huge part of the that event and that was after the daily high reached 41F and the day before was 58F and the airport still recorded 12.5" with 1.25" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3k NAM doesn't kill off the snow anywhere near as fast as the OP. Results in better totals farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I'm not sure if I've ever seen models this aggressive with QPF in St. Louis. I have my doubts that we'll see 10:1 ratios, but who knows. I will say that during the March 2013 storm the temperature remained above freezing during a huge part of the that event and that was after the daily high reached 41F and the day before was 58F and the airport still recorded 12.5" with 1.25" liquid. Certainly looking potent for you guys. Nearly every model has double digits. LSR's may be low but so much moisture and long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm liking my spot here in Indy. Feel like well get a good one out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The models are settling on ~0.20" for Cedar Rapids. The dry air is really going to push back against the moisture around here. The GFS has really sharpened the north edge, which should barely get north of CR. If the dry air is more robust than expected, CR could easily drop down to <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The models are settling on ~0.20" for Cedar Rapids. The dry air is really going to push back against the moisture around here. The GFS has really sharpened the north edge, which should barely get north of CR. If the dry air is more robust than expected, CR could easily drop down to <1". It almost always is more robust than expected. I'm expecting <1" at my location on the far north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 28 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The models are settling on ~0.20" for Cedar Rapids. The dry air is really going to push back against the moisture around here. The GFS has really sharpened the north edge, which should barely get north of CR. If the dry air is more robust than expected, CR could easily drop down to <1". Gonna have to keep an eye on that. 00z HRRR seems a bit south with the northern fringe compared to some other guidance. These northern fringes always trend sharper as we get closer, so wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty big gradients on tomorrow's runs. Really wouldn't be surprised if Waterloo/Dubuque go flakeless while the I-80 corridor cashes in with 4"+. EDIT: Another thing to watch will be if an enhanced band can set up on the extreme north fringe as the dry air tries to fight the northward movement. Sometimes you can get some overperforming with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Geeez.. 0z Nam has <3" for Cincy and 15" for St. Louis.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: Geeez.. 0z Nam has <3" for Cincy and 15" for St. Louis.. Rare bird coming for STL. They are going to get popped good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: Geeez.. 0z Nam has <3" for Cincy and 15" for St. Louis.. Do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Do you have a map? No. I went to Coolwx.com which has NCEP stats. Go to hourly model precip and click on state, then city.. I'm basing on 10:1 ratio. Might not be that high even.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z FV3 Kuchera map from COD. Will post from Pivotal when it comes out far enough. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Looks like there have been about 12 storms that have dropped at least 12" in St. Louis. This may not quite be correct -- I simply searched by highest totals within a few day period and didn't check to see if there were any instances of separate storms adding up to 12+, e.g. 7.8" on 1/20 and 5.3" on 1/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 00z FV3 Kuchera map from COD. Will post from Pivotal when it comes out far enough. Sent from my SM-G965U using TapatalkPivotal wx 00z fv3 kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FV3 has been pretty consistent and now has nudged more north. Very interesting. Likely a bit overdone though. But definitely wishcasting for this to verify. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Do you have a map? http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KPFN&model=nam&time=current&field=DEF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: FV3 has been pretty consistent and now has nudged more north. Very interesting. Likely a bit overdone though. But definitely wishcasting for this to verify. Lol Yeah FV3 slams most of ILX 9-11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Central Illinois said: Yeah FV3 slams most of ILX 9-11" What is its track record like with past winter storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The 'ol lady said it's gonna happen, "the pink looks just like one of our dogs" lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Pivotal wx 00z fv3 kuchera Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Wow! That really sux for most of Ohio and me in SE Indiana... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: What is its track record like with past winter storms? I think its been pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: I think its been pretty decent It sniffed out higher totals in that November storm before other models started catching on, but placement was off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FV3 GFS gets warning level snows up to I-80. Hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: What is its track record like with past winter storms? It bombed with the Nov 25th storm. Was adamant about heavy snows much further northwest than all other guidance until at the last minute. Other than that I'm not sure how well it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Wouldn't be surprised if KIND added some counties north to the watch/warning in the overnight as the 00Z models come in. Column seems to saturate quicker on the models at least in Central In. Even the Grinchy GFS is being generous. I'm Lebowski excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 If this storm would have came in about 12hrs later the Chiefs game Sunday afternoon would have been one to remember. The snow will have just left the area by the time the game starts around 3pm IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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