Stebo Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Locking in my 0.cirrus for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 3-4" seems like a decent bet around here at this time. If that happens, it would be the biggest snow so far this season. Something around 1-3/2-4 seems most reasonably out here too. We could double our snowfall for the season if the higher end of that range pans out. 9 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said: Yeah with that new Euro I have a feeling other models will tick south. I’m going to go for 1-2 inches in my area. Could be more but I’m being conservative now Seems like this has happened at least a few times this season now... most notably with the late November storm for S/E IA. If we see any hints of a southern trend on the 18z/00z I'd start shifting my bets heavily to the Euro's side, but given the close agreement on basically every other model I'm not sure I'd buy in just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: Something around 1-3/2-4 seems most reasonably out here too. We could double our snowfall for the season if the higher end of that range pans out. Seems like this has happened at least a few times this season now... most notably with the late November storm for S/E IA. If we see any hints of a southern trend on the 18z/00z I'd start shifting my bets heavily to the Euro's side, but given the close agreement on basically every other model I'm not sure I'd buy in just yet. Though one would hope November was long enough ago that this storm wouldn’t be forced by the same setup. Still though it makes me very nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @10:1 GFS showing Cincy getting 6" . Nam says only 3" ... 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Not really sure models ticked south with the upper level or surface features. More like the higher accumulations weren't as north. Likely due to the very dry air mass eating away at the northern precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 34 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Not really sure models ticked south with the upper level or surface features. More like the higher accumulations weren't as north. Likely due to the very dry air mass eating away at the northern precip shield 18z NAM? It was definitely further south at the surface and 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z NAM? It was definitely further south at the surface and 500mb. 18z was yes. But I posted that before 18z was out. Was referring to 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 ILN issued WSWatch for the lower criteria counties around and including Cincy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 This storm looks structurally different and larger and less intense than the late November storm but with that I-80 cutoff looking similar to it, how does this storm compare to the late November storm? With that storm the models headed south further out (2 days) than this one, but it really does look very similar for my neck of the woods. I’ve only had 1 inch of snow IMBY all season so far, and the November storm only gave us a dusting while 30 miles south got a foot! The 18z GFS is coming in not so much looking further south but a little bit of a tighter cutoff on the north side for IA. I’m thinking we still look better for this than the NOV storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said: This storm looks structurally different and larger and less intense than the late November storm but with that I-80 cutoff looking similar to it, how does this storm compare to the late November storm? With that storm the models headed south further out (2 days) than this one, but it really does look very similar for my neck of the woods. I’ve only had 1 inch of snow IMBY all season so far, and the November storm only gave us a dusting while 30 miles south got a foot! That was a whole different animal. That was a strong mid latitude cyclone with a classic trowal. This is more of an upper level low with the surface reflection much further south. An inverted trough extending from the low is allowing the snow to fall a lot more north of surface low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Locking in my 0.cirrus for this one Lol that’s pretty much what I’m expecting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 KIND pulled the trigger on a WSW just north and south of I70. for 4-7 (There ya go Buck!) Still calling for 2-4 to the north with freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 Tough call here as we'll be pretty close to the northern edge. Looks like a 1-2" type event. Enough to make it look wintry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Tough call here as we'll be pretty close to the northern edge. Looks like a 1-2" type event. Enough to make it look wintry again. Yep. Thinking an 1” here. Nice to see the south area which missed the earlier blizzard get a solid plastering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Tough call here as we'll be pretty close to the northern edge. Looks like a 1-2" type event. Enough to make it look wintry again. Yup. Thinking the same in these parts. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Going with DAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Going with DAB I say 1.3” at MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's also nice to see the areas that got missed by the last blizzard get missed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 In the battle between how much it has snowed on the Missouri Iowa border this season which is south of us, they’ve gotten twenty times as much snow as we have up in Des Moines so far this year and it puts climo to shame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Yep. Thinking an 1” here. Nice to see the south area which missed the earlier blizzard get a solid plastering Excited. Banking on a good 3-5” event here. Trends are looking good, and juicy. I need this for my sanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, ConvectiveIA said: In the battle between how much it has snowed on the Missouri Iowa border this season which is south of us, they’ve gotten twenty times as much snow as we have up in Des Moines so far this year and it puts climo to shame The hi res guidance trends won’t help with this statistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I don't have a lot of faith in any model during winter but this damn FV3 has been pumping 7-10 inches for me for 5 or 6 runs. If it happens the FV3 will be my God for the rest of the winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I feel like some of you are being too conservative. I get it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Hoosier said: I feel like some of you are being too conservative. I get it though. I'm afraid being so far east it will all dry up by the time it gets here. I see how all the models show precip diminishing as it gets further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: I feel like some of you are being too conservative. I get it though. You're spoiled, you've been away from pinger town too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I feel like some of you are being too conservative. I get it though. The 00z NAM still comes in juicy for me. The 00z HRRR does not but that’s extreme long range for HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: You're spoiled, you've been away from pinger town too long yep us here in central Indiana know more than most on this forum about getting the shaft. GHD 2011 even over an inch of ice was forecasted here we got mostly sleet too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 On 1/10/2019 at 9:17 PM, Hoosier said: I feel like some of you are being too conservative. I get it though. I am riding 0.cirrus to the grave on this one for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Going to be a razor sharp cutoff somewhere in the I-88 vicinity. 00z NAM gets higher totals further north, but sharpens the cutoff on the north edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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