Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah you guys are looking pretty good down there. Looks like you'll be safe from the sharp northern cutoff. I'm guessing you will be included in the winter storm watches that will be issued in a few hours. Can you believe I haven't seen a double digit snowfall here since GHD Blizzard 2011? Have got close but no cigar. Would be awesome to get walloped again one of these days. But inverted troughs are notorious for over performing so maybe we could be in for a surprise. Compared to the 12z run which had 7in+ here it has backed off some but still a high end advisory/low end warning snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Gonna go with 1.1” for ORD.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Pour some sugar on me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 As I expected watches were confined south. Still looks like a solid advisory event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 3km NAM looking pretty nasty with that northern cutoff. Keeps areas north of I-80 bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I guess the trends overnight were not good. NWS in Wilmington says only 2-3" for the I-70 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL. Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower slightly less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow. Edit: still as Buckeye and others have noted, an improvement from previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 nam is back with the rest of the models showing a general 3-4" for i-70. 2-4"...advisory looks really good right now. then after whatever happens with that one over the weekend, we might be tracking a larger event 5-7 days out. I've seen every possible model scenario for that storm....rain or snow or mix...but the signal for something is pretty strong and consistent across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL. Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk it's actually improved further east for us as well...coming in line with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 it's actually improved further east for us as well...coming in line with the other models.Yeah, true, was more pointing out relative to same latitude zone farther west why the same huge totals aren't expanding east and narrower area of decent totals. Looks possibly more mesoscale banding driven farther east just eyeballing it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Yeah, true, was more pointing out relative to same latitude zone farther west why the same huge totals aren't expanding east and narrower area of decent totals. Looks possibly more mesoscale banding driven farther east just eyeballing it. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk these type of storms seem to like i-70 for some reason when it comes to that narrow banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Improvements farther west on 12z NAM12. Slightly stronger h5 low closes with better height rises ahead of it. Also stronger more compact 850 low for a time. The northern stream confluence stays farther northeast so the dry air issue is reduced westward, resulting in a much better run for and gradient shunted northward a bit in northern IL. Issue I'm seeing farther east into IN and OH is related to the slower and stronger ULL, keeping stronger forcing farther west, which makes for a narrower less intense precip shield, likely also more of a struggle with dry air at least initially. By the time the system slowly tracks eastward, upper wave dampens and cuts off the accumulating snow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3km NAM also much improved for I-80 through IA/IL/IN with at least some precip up to the WI/MI border. Still not as far north as its 12km companion, but definitely much more in line with most of the models at this point. It will be interesting to see if we continue the northward shift or if we readjust back to the south a bit over the next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Anyone notice how much slower the snow arrival is on 3km nam? 12km nam brings snow into me around 12-1am versus 3km which is around 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 In addition to the farther north surge with the moisture, it's equally great that models are slowing the system so at least half the snow falls during daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: In addition to the farther north surge with the moisture, it's equally great that models are slowing the system so at least half the snow falls during daylight. Not sure that's great. Lol. Temps will be warmer with lower ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Not sure that's great. Lol. Temps will be warmer with lower ratios I'm tired of, seemingly, 90% of our snow events dumping their loads in the middle of the night. As I get older, I just don't feel like getting out of bed at 3am to look at snow in the street light. I want to see beautiful snowflakes pouring down in daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I just want to see snow!! Daytime, Night time, anytime!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: I'm tired of, seemingly, 90% of our snow events dumping their loads in the middle of the night. As I get older, I just don't feel like getting out of bed at 3am to look at snow in the street light. I want to see beautiful snowflakes pouring down in daylight. Totally understand that. But better when you have cold temperatures during the day. These are pretty marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV-3 for those curious. A little north and a little juicier across most of IL. UKM was pretty close to its 00 solution from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: FV-3 for those curious. A little north and a little juicier across most of IL. UKM was pretty close to its 00 solution from what I can tell. looks the like the 12z Ukmet had a decent increase in QPF large area across MO/IL now showing 1.00-1.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 looks the like the 12z Ukmet had a decent increase in QPF large area across MO/IL now showing 1.00-1.20"Very solid run all the way into OH. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3-4" seems like a decent bet around here at this time. If that happens, it would be the biggest snow so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Not a bad run at all but probably overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I am anticipating 2-4" here although i am hopeful i get lucky and get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I am anticipating 2-4" here although i am hopeful i get lucky and get more. That's a good bet right now. If it pans out as currently forecast totals in Central In. will depend on the low level dry air. The quicker the column saturates the better. Models currently showing 70-80% humidity at the onset so it won't take much. There's also some convection down south that could potentially sap some moisture. It's not going to be a storm per se, just 24 hours of snow globe. There can be surprises + or -. I'll take what I can get and agree 2-4 is a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 if we can't be in the sweet spot, at least it's nice to see indy in there. Hopefully we can also score a respectable hit before the precip peters out too much. I've seen in the past where these hold together better than models were showing, especially along i-70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Not a bad run at all but probably overdone. I love the optimism of us Central In. folks lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 12z Euro kuchera is a doozy for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The 00z euro ticked south for my area and now the 12z euro jumped even farther south. The euro went from most bullish to driest for CR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 00z euro ticked south for my area and now the 12z euro jumped even farther south. The euro went from most bullish to driest for CR. Yeah with that new Euro I have a feeling other models will tick south. I’m going to go for 1-2 inches in my area. Could be more but I’m being conservative now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.