Jackstraw Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Snowing heavily still here at Fortville but looks like we will enter dry slot for awhile this afternoon before more returns from EVV nw to Carbondale come ne. Those returns are currently rain, but hopefully they will remain as snow when they get this far ne. We still have the upper level system later this evening. It's a long shot but some places could see double digits if that dry slot keeps filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: It's a big win for us after facing a possible DAB event not too long ago lol. I love these long-duration events. The better northward surge of the moisture helped a lot of people on the forums. There are lot of members in the Lincoln-Omaha-Des Moines-Cedar Rapids-QC-Chicago corridor. While we won't see any heavy snow, I'm certainly satisfied with the daytime light-to-moderate 4-incher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I-72 nice hit 1140 AM HEAVY SNOW JACKSONVILLE 39.73N 90.23W 01/12/2019 M14.0 INCH MORGAN IL MESONET MEASURED 14.0 INCHES OF SNOW ON VANDALIA STREET IN JACKSONVILLE. 1.5 ADDITIONAL SNOW BETWEEN 9 AM AND 1140 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: It's a big win for us after facing a possible DAB event not too long ago lol. I love these long-duration events. It's remarkable how far north the northern edge of the snow made it today compared to what guidance had been suggesting. Waterloo is all the way up to 1.5" too. Here in Ames we have roughly 1.75-2.5" depending on where you want to measure. Some main roads are still in rough shape but not bad otherwise. Looks like DSM is sitting around 4" or so. If we can get to 3" I'll be pleased. Much happier than I was checking RadarScope after several drinks last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: The one where IND got like 12.5”? I remember that one. And I’m enjoying. Out working out in it! Yeah, that one. We grinded our way to about 5" in LAF. Radar trends looking up so may get into some better stuff here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Really impressive rates under the 30+ dbz bands. Flake size dramatically improves under those bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Duh! I forgot all about that one since it was such a narrow path of snow and we got whiffed on it. I'm thinking the official total was somewhere around 10 and half inches We normally do a little better than Indy, and we're only a mile west! Not sure why but I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Street said: We normally do a little better than Indy, and we're only a mile west! Not sure why but I'll take it! I'm in Avon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, AppsRunner said: It's remarkable how far north the northern edge of the snow made it today compared to what guidance had been suggesting. Some guidance just did not do well. GGEM/FV3/ECMWF did the best, no doubt. The OP GFS needs to be replaced by the FV3 ASAP, because it was horrible. The NAM/HRRR/RAP were beyond horrible . The SLP ended up further north than most guidance expected even just 1 day ago, as well as some guidance overestimating the power of the dry air advecting in...usually it's the opposite. This time yesterday the HRRR had 0 snow for much of the Chicago metro, where 2-5" is likely now and was shown by most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: It's remarkable how far north the northern edge of the snow made it today compared to what guidance had been suggesting. Waterloo is all the way up to 1.5" too. Here in Ames we have roughly 1.75-2.5" depending on where you want to measure. Some main roads are still in rough shape but not bad otherwise. Looks like DSM is sitting around 4" or so. If we can get to 3" I'll be pleased. Much happier than I was checking RadarScope after several drinks last night Snowing pretty good here as well I’m your old neighborhood up by the Franklin Park Mall. Can only imagine what the snow rates towards BG are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Overperformer underway in the metro, finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Overperformer underway in the metro, finally! Nothing about this is really over-performing really. Quality guidance had 2-5" for the metro, which is on track to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Some guidance just did not do well. GGEM/FV3/ECMWF did the best, no doubt. The OP GFS needs to be replaced by the FV3 ASAP, because it was horrible. The NAM/HRRR/RAP were beyond horrible . The SLP ended up further north than most guidance expected even just 1 day ago, as well as some guidance overestimating the power of the dry air...usually it's the opposite. This time yesterday the HRRR had 0 snow for much of the Chicago metro, where 2-5" is likely now and was shown by most other guidance. The american CAMs all seemed to be pretty awful this time around. The RGEM and the globals you mentioned were all decent, though I don't think any model came close to showing the extent of the northern push until an hour before it got there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Nothing about this is really over-performer really. Quality guidance had 2-5" for the metro, which is on track to occur. I would say the system generally overperformed expectations in our neck of the woods. The “quality” guidance didn’t really show much for the city and north until yesterday. Cook county didn’t even have an advisory posted. Could have easily gone the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I would say the system generally overperformed expectations in our neck of the woods. The “quality” guidance didn’t really show much for the city and north until yesterday. Cook county didn’t even have an advisory posted. Could have easily gone the other way. Not an over-performance at all. FV3/GGEM/ECMWF all showed 2-5" across the metro for the past 1 day+, so that's not really correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Not an over-performance at all. FV3/GGEM/ECMWF all showed 2-5" across the metro for the past 1 day+, so that's not really correct. I’m sorry I disagree. Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well. There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCIWxGuy Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Measured 5.8" just now. Hit a lull over the past couple hours but still slowly accumulating. Have a feeling it's going to be a slow climb from here on out to our final total, probably around 7", might hit 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: I’m sorry I disagree. Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well. There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer. If you were even following the OP GFS that tells me all I need to know. These totals were always in the envelop of possibility. The cut off was the main issue point, and ended up in the southern tier of Wisconsin counties, which was always a possibility as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, Chicago Storm said: If you were even following the OP GFS that tells me all I need to know. These totals were always in the envelop of possibility. The cut off was the main issue point, and ended up in the southern tier of Wisconsin counties, which was always a possibility as well. Lol it’s the first global to run of the suite man, gotta get my fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now, mimillman said: Lol it’s the first global to run of the suite man, gotta get my fix I know, I just gotta get my shots in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Snow has been surprisingly fluffy here. Not too much water content. Temps remained colder. 29-30 pretty much all day. Have had periods of larger flakes within those mesoscale bands. Overall been moderate snow all day with periods of heavy. Looks like dry slot should stay just east of IL River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 To me, it looks like Champaign-Urbana really missed out on a lot of the snow. Just really bad luck, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 inches now north Muncie, and large dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, homedis said: To me, it looks like Champaign-Urbana really missed out on a lot of the snow. Just really bad luck, I guess. I was thinking 6-9" for that area, and they're in the lower end of that range. So I don't think the did too bad overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Eyeballing it we’re closing in on 2” and counting. Nice flake size for the whole event so far. This is easily an over-performer for us on the northern periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I’m sorry I disagree. Even just looking back at old ECMWF runs now, it didn’t really start showing the higher amounts until 12z yesterday, maybe you could argue 00z. Sure the GGEM was amped, but that’s a typical bias of that model so I was discounting some of those runs. The FV3 admittedly did well. There was enough short term guidance and the good ol’ OP GFS suggesting this would not happen. I don’t think many of us were expecting the push this far north with respectable totals. Therefore for me personally, this is an overperformer.Euro had a run a few days ago that had the higher totals farther north. In general, it did a better job getting halfway decent accums into the metro even with the run to run variance and closer with the northward extent to what is verifying. Can say the same for the FV3 and GGEM and RGEM at longer leads as has been established. The op GFS did a horrific job through and through. The NAM was as it turns out too affected by dry air, it wasn't bad with mass features. I've noticed that the NAM is very binary when affected by dry air. Even if soundings show what look like snow all the way down to a fairly shallow dry layer, it severely cuts or even removes snow accums. In the case of the north end cutoff, what it showed wasn't unrealistic but just too far south based off mass features like h5 and slp track etc.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I was thinking 6-9" for that area, and they're in the lower end of that range. So I don't think the did too bad overall.You’re right, I guess I meant compared to areas just North and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Eyeballing it we’re closing in on 2” and counting. Nice flake size for the whole event so far. This is easily an over-performer for us on the northern periphery.Flake size here is Pixie dust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 There's a few reports near Columbia MO of 15-16". Looks like they were ground zero for this event. Very impressive. A smidge over 4" here. Rates have slowed a bit from earlier, but still slowly adding up out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Snow really seems to be very slowly lightening up but it’s still accumulating. We have about 5 inches or just shy of that now. I’m grateful to the snow gods and satisfied with this one. The models were too conservative/too far south with the northern cutoff here too and even Ames got a few inches and snow made it up even further north than that. Here’s a photo from 2 hours ago. Little more out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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