Chambana Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've been thinking that our areas might end up with a similar amount of snow. So I hope you're wrong. Come on Hoosier, pull for us we don’t complain much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Reed timmer is live. STL metro getting rocked right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 St Louis is a disaster. I am 15 miles ESE of downtown. We have 5-6" so far with heavy snow unfolding. Only a small break later on before it ramps up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: KSTL 112351Z 11007KT 3/4SM R30R/5500VP6000FT -SN BR VV009 M02/M03 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP254 SNINCR 2/4 4/004 If they are already at 4" they are going to have no problem getting to 12" hell they may push 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 As a matter of fact I will call it now, if the storm unfolds like the models have it going they are getting over 14". It is supposed to snow for 24 more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said: St Louis is a disaster. I am 15 miles ESE of downtown. We have 5-6" so far with heavy snow unfolding. Only a small break later on before it ramps up again any concerns busch stadium will collapse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: As a matter of fact I will call it now, if the storm unfolds like the models have it going they are getting over 14". It is supposed to snow for 24 more hours. Yeah they have a real shot at a top 3 storm. If anything, their location northwest of downtown may help since models have been placing the better amounts there. Although, didn't STL lowball a storm earlier this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah they have a real shot at a top 3 storm. If anything, their location northwest of downtown may help since models have been placing the better amounts there. Although, didn't STL lowball a storm earlier this season? I don't remember tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah they have a real shot at a top 3 storm. If anything, their location northwest of downtown may help since models have been placing the better amounts there. Although, didn't STL lowball a storm earlier this season? The airport always does. The NWS headquarters in Weldon. springs about 25 miles NW of downtown will have a legit total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Sitting at 5” at Forest Park. A foot will be easy. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 You can really see the snow band fighting the dry air. Struggling to move north. Definitely nervous. Been burned here many times by models underestimating the power of dry air. Band is moving more west to east atm but that should change later as the air saturates more. RH sitting at 78% here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, Baum said: any concerns busch stadium will collapse? Nah, it’s held up by the strength of our 11 World Series trophies. But in all seriousness, super jealous. It’s rip city in STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I have noticed the last few runs of the HRRR has had a north trend hour by hour (in IL and Se IA) the longer range 00z run is more north the the 18Z with next batch of heavier precipitation slug later..notice 1 inch into SE IA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 19 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: You can really see the snow band fighting the dry air. Struggling to move north. Definitely nervous. Been burned here many times by models underestimating the power of dry air. Band is moving more west to east atm but that should change later as the air saturates more. RH sitting at 78% here You're more than fine. Northern Illinois is the only area of concern regarding the dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 On 1/11/2019 at 8:33 PM, janetjanet998 said: I have noticed the last few runs of the HRRR has had a north trend hour by hour (in IL and Se IA) the longer range 00z run is more north the the 18Z with next batch of heavier precipitation slug later The latest run still has over 15" coming to parts of MO too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said: I have noticed the last few runs of the HRRR has had a north trend hour by hour (in IL and Se IA) the longer range 00z run is more north the the 18Z with next batch of heavier precipitation slug later..notice 1 inch in SE IA now Was looking at that myself. While not much northward movement with the actual snow definitely has been increasing totals northward. I'm going to go with 6 inches here. Hate to jinx myself lol. Only model that gives me less are the plumes. Daytime snowfall tomorrow along with less than desirable DGZ will keep it iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I think it is because these bands barely move and just sit dumping snow. Not sure the rates will be super intense but will have at least a long duration of light to moderate snow. Hrrr has that deformation band setup just to my south tomorrow. Hoping that can inch north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 The latest nam is unbelievable. Almost 2" of liquid in my backyard. At 7"+ now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said: The latest nam is unbelievable. Almost 2" of liquid in my backyard. At 7"+ now yes ...at the end of the event under the upper system heavy precipitation rates over a small area will it turn to rain for a while tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Strangely enough, some models are trying to poke temps just above 32 here tomorrow afternoon. With 925 mb temps around -5C to -6C, ongoing precip and a still fairly weak mid January sun angle, I'm gonna go with no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: yes ...at the end of the event under the upper system heavy precipitation rates over a small area will it turn to rain for a while tomorrow? Looks like drizzle under the lighter returns. The warm layer is like 300ft deep at 32.5f. But ice nucleation and dendrite growth is definitely questionable at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 That was a strange nam run. Has a big trench of lower totals digging down into my area naturally. But meteorologically makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just now started snowing in Des Moines! That edge is as advertised on radar! In fact the snow flakes arrived before the pictured edge enveloped us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said: Looks like drizzle under the lighter returns. The warm layer is like 300ft deep at 32.5f. But ice nucleation and dendrite growth is definitely questionable at times. NWS trending down in the zones for STL..WTF is gong on? it changes sometimes in 30 minutes 306pm OTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES 451pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES 804pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES 836pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 9 TO 11 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said: NWS trending down in the zones for STL 306pm OTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES 451pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES 804pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES I'm surprised they ever went above 10-13. That probably is time sensitive and doesn't count what's already fallen tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: NWS trending down in the zones for STL 306pm OTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES 451pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES 804pm TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES They are clueless on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: I've been thinking that our areas might end up with a similar amount of snow. So I hope you're wrong. Me too lol. A few of the latest HRRR/RAP runs, and the new 3km do look a smidge further north, so there's that. What really surprises me is how much precip has amped up in far southeast Iowa. Looks like 10"+ now down there if those runs are correct. To quote Ron Burgundy, that escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I think with the lack of any specific forcing and a marginal DGZ a "bird fart" per Stebo lol, could affect totals by +/- 20-25% locally. Overall synoptic averages should pan out. 00Z Hi Res models are already dropping totals to the east to be more in line with what the local AFD's were forecasting this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 As a note I did read one AFD yesterday that commented on the elevated DGZ and Omega not being lined up (above me somewhat) that could result in snow crystals being more of a super cooled column/plate combination that would hinder accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 32 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: That was a strange nam run. Has a big trench of lower totals digging down into my area naturally. But meteorologically makes no sense AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 859 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019 UPDATE ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019 SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SNOW FROM AROUND HAVANA TO I-70 AT THE INDIANA STATE LINE, AND CURRENT RATE OF ADVANCE SUGGESTS I-74 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE IN SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULDN'T FALL MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY SNOWFALL REPORTS ARE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AT JACKSONVILLE AND EFFINGHAM AFTER ABOUT 2 HOURS OF SNOWFALL AT THOSE LOCATIONS. SEVERAL INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE AT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH AMOUNTS OF 7-9 INCHES EXPECTED BY NOON FROM EFFINGHAM TO JACKSONVILLE AND 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM POPS TIMING, BUT FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY MINOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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