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Winter Storm!? Jan 12-13th, 2019


cyclone77

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

As a matter of fact I will call it now, if the storm unfolds like the models have it going they are getting over 14". It is supposed to snow for 24 more hours.

Yeah they have a real shot at a top 3 storm.  If anything, their location northwest of downtown may help since models have been placing the better amounts there.

Although, didn't STL lowball a storm earlier this season?

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah they have a real shot at a top 3 storm.  If anything, their location northwest of downtown may help since models have been placing the better amounts there.

Although, didn't STL lowball a storm earlier this season?

I don't remember tbh.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah they have a real shot at a top 3 storm.  If anything, their location northwest of downtown may help since models have been placing the better amounts there.

Although, didn't STL lowball a storm earlier this season?

The airport always does.

 

The NWS headquarters in Weldon. springs about 25 miles NW of downtown will have a legit total. 

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19 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You can really see the snow band fighting the dry air. Struggling to move north. Definitely nervous. Been burned here many times by models underestimating the power of dry air. Band is moving more west to east atm but that should change later as the air saturates more. RH sitting at 78% here

You're more than fine. Northern Illinois is the only area of concern regarding the dry air issues.

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On 1/11/2019 at 8:33 PM, janetjanet998 said:

I have noticed the last few runs of the HRRR has had a north trend hour by hour (in IL and Se IA)

the longer range 00z run is more north the the 18Z with next batch of heavier precipitation slug later

 

The latest run still has over 15" coming to parts of MO too...

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

I have noticed the last few runs of the HRRR has had a north trend hour by hour (in IL and Se IA)

the longer range 00z run is more north the the 18Z with next batch of heavier precipitation slug later..notice 1 inch in SE IA now

 

Was looking at that myself.  While not much northward movement with the actual snow definitely has been increasing totals northward.  I'm going to go with 6 inches here.  Hate to jinx myself lol.  Only model that gives me less are the plumes.  Daytime snowfall tomorrow along with less than desirable DGZ will keep it iffy.

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7 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

yes ...at the end of the event under the upper system heavy precipitation rates over a small area

will it turn to rain for a while tomorrow?

 

 

Looks like drizzle under the lighter returns.

 

The warm layer is like 300ft deep at 32.5f.

 

 

But ice nucleation and dendrite growth is definitely questionable at times.

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12 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

 

Looks like drizzle under the lighter returns.

 

The warm layer is like 300ft deep at 32.5f.

 

 

But ice nucleation and dendrite growth is definitely questionable at times.

NWS trending down in the zones for STL..WTF is gong on? it changes sometimes in 30 minutes

 

306pm

OTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES

 

451pm

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES
 

804pm 

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES

 

836pm TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 9 TO 11 INCHES

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1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

NWS trending down in the zones for STL

 

306pm


OTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 14 TO 16 INCHES

 

451pm

TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 12 TO 13 INCHES
 

804pm 


TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATION 10 TO 13 INCHES

 

 

I'm surprised they ever went above 10-13.

 

That probably is time sensitive and doesn't count what's already fallen tho.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I've been thinking that our areas might end up with a similar amount of snow.  So I hope you're wrong.  :D

Me too lol.  A few of the latest HRRR/RAP runs, and the new 3km do look a smidge further north, so there's that.  What really surprises me is how much precip has amped up in far southeast Iowa.  Looks like 10"+ now down there if those runs are correct.  To quote Ron Burgundy, that escalated quickly.

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I think with the lack of any specific forcing and a marginal DGZ a "bird fart" per Stebo lol, could affect totals by +/- 20-25% locally.  Overall synoptic averages should pan out.  00Z Hi Res models are already dropping totals to the east to be more in line with what the local AFD's were forecasting this morning.

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32 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That was a strange nam run. Has a big trench of lower totals digging down into my area naturally. But meteorologically makes no sense

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
859 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019  
   
UPDATE  
  
ISSUED AT 859 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019  
  
SNOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
THIS EVENING AS CURRENT RADAR SHOWS SNOW FROM AROUND HAVANA TO  
I-70 AT THE INDIANA STATE LINE, AND CURRENT RATE OF ADVANCE  
SUGGESTS I-74 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE IN SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES  
ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULDN'T  
FALL MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY SNOWFALL  
REPORTS ARE AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AT JACKSONVILLE AND  
EFFINGHAM AFTER ABOUT 2 HOURS OF SNOWFALL AT THOSE LOCATIONS.  
SEVERAL INCHES SHOULD ACCUMULATE AT MOST AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT,  
WITH AMOUNTS OF 7-9 INCHES EXPECTED BY NOON FROM EFFINGHAM TO  
JACKSONVILLE AND 4-6 INCHES ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR. HAVE MADE  
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SHORT TERM POPS TIMING, BUT FORECAST IS  
LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY MINOR UPDATES.  

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