Stebo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 0.cirrus call is getting a bit shaky locally but I don't see this being much more than an inch or so and mostly from the airport south. Out my way on northeast side of town it is going to be dry as a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, hlcater said: Euro just came in and added significantly more QPF on the northern side of the system. Would probably give CR 4-5" as ratios would probably be ever so slightly higher than 10:1. Though there isn't a lot of forcing out here on soundings so flake size is probably gonna suck like Hoosier was alluding to. Snow continues in S IN/S OH after this so the first shade of green makes it into SW OH and the second shade of green into S IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 31 minutes ago, Calderon said: ILX upped the forecasted total for the City of St. Louis up to 10" and potentially over a foot. I'm not the least bit surprised considering nearly all models go over 10". They have been really behind the ball on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 53 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I think 3-4" still looks good here. Being so far north of the storm track, it's tempting to think ratios would be very good, but an inspection of soundings shows that the better lift really doesn't line up very well with the DGZ at least around here. I suspect flake size may not be that good most of the time, though could improve for brief periods. Yea that's my concern. They aren't lining up well. So may be dealing with pixie dust. But should have periods of better flake size. Hopefully. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea that's my concern. They aren't lining up well. So may be dealing with pixie dust. But should have periods of better flake size. Hopefully. Lol ILX just extended the WSW includes Bloomington/Peoria areas now! they upped the totals 5-8" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'm going to be in Macomb, IL for this one, going to call about 7" in town. I think higher further south and 6" as far north as 34. Although newer model runs (12z NAM, Canadian, Euro etc) want to give my hometown of Galesburg 8" or so. So its a tough call on where I'm riding this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILwxchr Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Winter Storm Warning now for Macomb, IL. I don't get the difference between a warning for 5-8 versus an advisory for 5-7. I get the whole 8" in 24 hour thing, but in my opinion this minor difference is confusing the public. I'd just go with a blanket warning or advisory, but that's why I don't get paid to forecast I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 From mood flakes to a C-1... Fringecasting at it's best. Congrats to the southern lollies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 ILX has issued 2 WSWs and 1 blizzard warning for my county in the past year, and none of them had watches beforehand. I'm not complaining though, after getting an inch in the November storm as well as multiple years without a WSW, its looking like my area has a solid shot at exceeding 6" in this storm. Plus with that stretch of nice warm weather we had last week, this is shaping up to be a good January for me. I can't wait to see what the highest totals in Missouri will be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 ILX seems to have bumped up the totals from a general 6-8” to 6-10” now. So for me it’s double digit or bust. leggo. Just got me a good bottle of whiskey and gonna try and pull an all nighter. Let’s see who wins the booze or the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Chambana said: ILX seems to have bumped up the totals from a general 6-8” to 6-10” now. So for me it’s double digit or bust. leggo. Just got me a good bottle of whiskey and gonna try and pull an all nighter. Let’s see who wins the booze or the storm I'm glad it's going to be a daytime storm here. I will try to get some sleep and set my alarm for 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Winter Storm Warning for my area. 4-7 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Winter Storm Warning for my area. 4-7 inches. Nice dude, wishing you luck. I'm about 75 miles NE of our boy Chambana. Hoping to make a run at 6 inches. Moved out this way in June. This will be the first system that looks to cover the lawn completely. Happy this is going down on the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, King James said: Nice dude, wishing you luck. I'm about 75 miles NE of our boy Chambana. Hoping to make a run at 6 inches. Moved out this way in June. This will be the first system that looks to cover the lawn completely. Happy this is going down on the weekend! Thanks. Same to you. I'm trying to stay cautious and aiming for 4 inches. Good luck to you as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Winter Storm Warning for my area. 4-7 inches. The near 4 year warning drought for Dayton is over!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, ILwxchr said: Winter Storm Warning now for Macomb, IL. I don't get the difference between a warning for 5-8 versus an advisory for 5-7. I get the whole 8" in 24 hour thing, but in my opinion this minor difference is confusing the public. I'd just go with a blanket warning or advisory, but that's why I don't get paid to forecast I guess. I think it's a judgement call. There are factors such as whether there has been a significant snow yet or whether it's a weekday vs weekend, etc. In the end, the type of headline is not as important as realizing the snow amount. I mean, I'd enjoy a 7" snow exactly the same whether there is a warning or an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: The near 4 year warning drought for Dayton is over!!! Hopefully we can both get 6 inches out of this. I have only experienced three 6 inch storms in my life ! Whatever snow we get, it will seem like a ton compared to what we've had so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It has commenced in the last hour in St. Louis https://www.earthcam.com/usa/missouri/stlouis/?cam=arch_riverview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: It has commenced in the last hour in St. Louis https://www.earthcam.com/usa/missouri/stlouis/?cam=arch_riverview Was just looking at that earthcam shot. You can barely see across the river to the arch. Inch an hour rates in the current meso discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Indystorm said: Was just looking at that earthcam shot. You can barely see across the river to the arch. Inch an hour rates in the current meso discussion. Yeah, visibility for me in Central West End across the street from Forest Park is about 1/4 mile right now. It started just before 1300 but rates really picked up at 1400, close to an inch already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Well it looks like we will definitely get some snow out of this. At least a couple inches. 18z models have so far pulled back a hair on accumulations in town but we remain well south of the absolute cutoff. The gradient looks a lot more relaxed than the November storm and radar returns are creeping up our way nicely given the forecast snow is 6 hours away yet. This will be fun and interesting and if we are extra lucky we’ll get 5-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 SLX bumps forecast for the city, yet again, to a solid foot. I mean, it only took at least a full day to do it. *rolls eyes* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Calderon said: SLX bumps forecast for the city, yet again, to a solid foot. I mean, it only took at least a full day to do it. *rolls eyes* Not sure what's worse...Their handling of this system or the 12/1 tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Snow has made it to Western Illinois. Roads are covered and it's only been at it a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 hours ago, Central Illinois said: ILX just extended the WSW includes Bloomington/Peoria areas now! they upped the totals 5-8" now I was pleasantly surprised. Only thing I'm unsure up here is if those nice banding features will be present. But good thing is snow falls overnight when ratios will be slightly better. I def stand a much better chance with this storm than the Nov blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3-5 inches down already in the Columbia MO to STL metro area COU has picked up over 1/2 inch of Precipitation since the snow began ISSUED AT 334 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2019 HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EVENTS (INCHES) AT KSTL AND KCOU: ENDING DATE IN PARENTHESES. KSTL KCOU 1. 15.6 (1912-02-21) 1. 19.7 (1995-01-20) 2. 13.9 (1982-02-01) 2. 18.0 (2011-02-03) 3. 13.5 (1910-02-17) 3. 15.3 (2006-12-01) T4. 13.0 (1914-02-13) 4. 13.9 (1900-03-01) 13.0 (1978-01-17) 5. 13.1 (1993-02-25) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Very difficult forecast for this area, as most models have the steep gradient setting up north of I-80. Encouraged to see the Euro/UK shift north. At this point I'm leaning more on the short-term high-res models. Think the globals are a little too loosey goosey with the northern gradient, as we've seen time and again the northern cutoffs be very sharp with these systems. If an area fails to achieve top-down saturation within the initial surge northward it will probably be game over for that location. The initial northward surge appears to be the most robust, so it will be kinda hard to saturate the column with subsequent weaker "surges" with dry air fighting in from the northeast. Still gonna ride 1-2" for here, but wouldn't be surprised to see even less, or if we're really lucky and get a good bump north it's possible we could get 3" or so. 2-3" for QC still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Very difficult forecast for this area, as most models have the steep gradient setting up north of I-80. Encouraged to see the Euro/UK shift north. At this point I'm leaning more on the short-term high-res models. Think the globals are a little too loosey goosey with the northern gradient, as we've seen time and again the northern cutoffs be very sharp with these systems. If an area fails to achieve top-down saturation within the initial surge northward it will probably be game over for that location. The initial northward surge appears to be the most robust, so it will be kinda hard to saturate the column with subsequent weaker "surges" with dry air fighting in from the northeast. Still gonna ride 1-2" for here, but wouldn't be surprised to see even less, or if we're really lucky and get a good bump north it's possible we could get 3" or so. 2-3" for QC still looks good. You and I are in the same boat with this one. In the last 20 minutes I’m seeing the radar edge of snow starting to lurch north of the two southernmost tiers of IA counties. We have a better shot this time than the Nov storm. The name of the game is just relaxing with a few nice beers and watching the radar returns. The next 3-4 hours will be critical IMO as the bulk of precipitation is going heavy to our south and the low is approaching on the western/northwestern side of this. The short term high res models still place Des Moines in the middle of the cutoff with 4-5 inches of snow but weirdly these models seem to think we won’t see our first inch for another 10-12 hours while radar shows it’s snowing 1 county to our south already. I wonder if those are dry returns. No matter how you slice it this is a huge slow moving storm that is hammering Missouri no doubt. This beer tastes great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 27 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Very difficult forecast for this area, as most models have the steep gradient setting up north of I-80. Encouraged to see the Euro/UK shift north. At this point I'm leaning more on the short-term high-res models. Think the globals are a little too loosey goosey with the northern gradient, as we've seen time and again the northern cutoffs be very sharp with these systems. If an area fails to achieve top-down saturation within the initial surge northward it will probably be game over for that location. The initial northward surge appears to be the most robust, so it will be kinda hard to saturate the column with subsequent weaker "surges" with dry air fighting in from the northeast. Still gonna ride 1-2" for here, but wouldn't be surprised to see even less, or if we're really lucky and get a good bump north it's possible we could get 3" or so. 2-3" for QC still looks good. I've been thinking that our areas might end up with a similar amount of snow. So I hope you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 KSTL 112351Z 11007KT 3/4SM R30R/5500VP6000FT -SN BR VV009 M02/M03 A3024 RMK AO2 SLP254 SNINCR 2/4 4/004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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