buckeye Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I'd like to nominate cyclone as our 2019 official storm thread starter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 27 minutes ago, buckeye said: I'd like to nominate cyclone as our 2019 official storm thread starter Ditto. Thanks cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 44 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 06z HRRR stalls the northern fringe pretty close to here and Cedar Rapids, and drops <0.1" of precip at both locations. Going to be a nail biter here lol. It's an outlier, as most other models show 0.2-0.3" for both areas. Gonna keep riding my 1-2" call for here, and go with 2-3" for the QC. Is HRRR trustworthy that far out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 57 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea but areas south really aren't going to see a different timing then us. Esp by I72. Hence my confusion I see your point. I might guess that for coordination purposes to mesh with other offices they went with warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I-70 in MO cashes in on the 9Z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z NAM improved for quite a few. Brought higher totals northward for central IL, the QC,...and farther east for the IN and OH crews. Jackpot is just west/northwest of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I-70 in MO cashes in on the 9Z SREF. That looks like less snow than most models i have seen for Indiana. Looks like the entire state is below 6" on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Chambana said: Ditto. Thanks cyclone This is going to be a long awaited crush job for you guys, 6-8” looks like a lock. It hasn’t been often in the past few years that I am jealous of my parents in Decatur regarding a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Been quietly watching the last week but I'm confident enough now to get excited. We are pretty close to the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z NAM improved for quite a few. Brought higher totals northward for central IL, the QC,...and farther east for the IN and OH crews. Jackpot is just west/northwest of STL. Yea, looks more like the FV-3. Brings heavier totals 3-5"+ totals right to I-80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This is going to be a long awaited crush job for you guys, 6-8” looks like a lock. It hasn’t been often in the past few years that I am jealous of my parents in Decatur regarding a winter storm. Absolutely and thanks man! Getting stoked. Updated graphic from our local met. Really considering driving to Mattoon/Charleston for the night. Hopefully another tick north to really put us into the thick of things. Either way, minimal sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, ams30721us said: Yea, looks more like the FV-3. Brings heavier totals 3-5"+ totals right to I-80 corridor. Painfully close for here. Alas, I’ll take 3 and change. Not a perfect match, but snowfall distribution with this one looks similar to the March 24-25, 2013 storm. SPI probably isn’t getting 18” and LAF close to a foot, but fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Hooray! My Sat. meeting has been cancelled due to weather so I don't have to risk driving anywhere. I can stay home and monitor the 5-7 inches of snow currently expected in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z RGEM brought the 0.50” line north of IKK. That’s nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z RGEM brought the 0.50” line north of IKK. That’s nice. Yep, RGEM a little more juicy near I-80 also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, ConvectiveIA said: Is HRRR trustworthy that far out yet? Typically no. Esp the longer range hrrr at 12z, 0z, 06z. That's the very end of it's range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z RGEM brought the 0.50” line north of IKK. That’s nice. So did the Canadian FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's a tough call for Northern Illinois, and the the LOT/DVN CWA's right now. Typically in these situations with dry air intrusion from the NE, a sharp gradient is the way to go...and happens 9/10 times. However, it's hard to overlook most guidance, which has a couple inches further north and a loose gradient...compared to say the NAM that is drier further north and has a sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: So did the Canadian FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cincy12 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Is it safe to assume that we will be working with a higher ratio possibly 12:1 given the temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, ams30721us said: Here’s the Kuchera map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Here’s the Kuchera map Crippling for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 FWIW dewpoints here aren’t bad, hovering just under 20 degrees, same as KSPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 On 1/11/2019 at 11:03 AM, mimillman said: FWIW dewpoints here aren’t bad, hovering just under 20 degrees, same as KSPI Aloft is where the issue is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z UK... wetter farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 They dropped my forecast high tomorrow from 31 to 29 so that's a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I think 3-4" still looks good here. Being so far north of the storm track, it's tempting to think ratios would be very good, but an inspection of soundings shows that the better lift really doesn't line up very well with the DGZ at least around here. I suspect flake size may not be that good most of the time, though could improve for brief periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 SLX upped the forecasted total for the City of St. Louis up to 10" and potentially over a foot. I'm not the least bit surprised considering nearly all models go over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro just came in and added significantly more QPF on the northern side of the system. Would probably give CR 4-5" as ratios would probably be ever so slightly higher than 10:1. Though there isn't a lot of forcing out here on soundings so flake size is probably gonna suck like Hoosier was alluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 As previous post just mentioned, pretty sizable bump north from Euro vs 00z run. I had been liking roughly I-90 corridor in northern IL for sharp cutoff, but not sure now. Aside from the NAMs, GFS, and high res wrfs, most of the 12z guidance today held or bumped north. Feeling better about not being north of the cutoff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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