cyclone77 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Positive trends the last few runs for a system this upcoming weekend. GFS and FV3 both look the most robust, as they deposit a fairly wide swath of accumulating snows from MO to OH and beyond. Also a corridor of warning criteria snows as well closer to the OH river. The Euro/GEM/ICON models show a storm as well, although not quite as impressive as the GFS brothers. There have been positive trends on the Euro though, as it hasn't been showing much until recently. I very rarely start storm threads, so hopefully this one works out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Positive trends the last few runs for a system this upcoming weekend. GFS and FV3 both look the most robust, as they deposit a fairly wide swath of accumulating snows from MO to OH and beyond. Also a corridor of warning criteria snows as well closer to the OH river. The Euro/GEM/ICON models show a storm as well, although not quite as impressive as the GFS brothers. There have been positive trends on the Euro though, as it hasn't been showing much until recently. I very rarely start storm threads, so hopefully this one works out lol. Oh no you didn't. j/k We'll see what happens. We probably continue the overall suckfest for some time after this window but hopefully it pans out for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The GFS and GGEM are fairytales. The UKMET is reality. Matter of fact, the GGEM and GFS have been so bad this winter, they should think about shutting them down to save money. You forgot your calling card;"The pacific jet will shred everthing to tatters" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 One of those deals where the best case scenario is probably being shown with a couple...maybe 4". Any more phasing and it mixes, any less and it's weak sauce south of us. High pressure to the north is weakening and moving east so there's nothing to stop a more phased storm from sending in the warm tongue. But hell, at least it's something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: The GFS and GGEM are fairytales. The UKMET is reality. Matter of fact, the GGEM and GFS have been so bad this winter, they should think about shutting them down to save money. boobie fail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, buckeye said: One of those deals where the best case scenario is probably being shown with a couple...maybe 4". Any more phasing and it mixes, any less and it's weak sauce south of us. High pressure to the north is weakening and moving east so there's nothing to stop a more phased storm from sending in the warm tongue. But hell, at least it's something to track. The story of our lives in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: You forgot your calling card;"The pacific jet will shred everthing to tatters" Funny thing is both 12z GGEM and Ukie are just jumping on board with the storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I have zero faith in the gfs. If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over. Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, buckeye said: I have zero faith in the gfs. If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over. Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs. Slight exaggeration I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, buckeye said: I have zero faith in the gfs. If the 12z euro continues to show a non-event on a system only 4-6 days out.... it's probably over. Euro only caves to the gfs beyond day 5, any caving that happens under that is always from the gfs. The 0z Euro run looked like it was starting to cave to GFS/FV3. We'll find out soon if the 12z continues that or reverts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Slight exaggeration I think Sorry, 86.76% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 The UK precip panels have something, but it is an anemic look on the surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 FWIW 12z Euro seems onboard with a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z. Trough was deeper and better heights in front. I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120. I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 20 minutes ago, buckeye said: Actually the euro at 96 looked much better than the 00z. Trough was deeper and better heights in front. I thought it was going to a GFS solution then it just crapped the bed at 120. I think it still has about a 50/50 shot of being the model that caves between it and the GFS. ....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive. Euro probably gonna win this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, buckeye said: ....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive. Euro probably gonna win this. Little less phased and HP is a little stronger and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, buckeye said: ....and just like that the opposite starts happening.... the 18z gfs looks flatter and more progressive. Euro probably gonna win this. FWIW the 18z FV3 looks even better than it's 12z for you guys, with warning criteria snows from southern IL through the southern halfs of IN/OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: FWIW the 18z FV3 looks even better than it's 12z for you guys, with warning criteria snows from southern IL through the southern halfs of IN/OH. that'd be great if the FV3 didn't have a verification score similar to a cras ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Guys, this is probably a cripplingly stupid question, but can someone tell me what FWIW means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FWIW.....For what its worth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Guys, this is probably a cripplingly stupid question, but can someone tell me what FWIW means? For What It's Worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, Calderon said: For What It's Worth Ah. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 37 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: FWIW.....For what its worth! Thanks mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Calderon said: For What It's Worth Which isn't much in this winter of non-starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Decent track for us in OH, but an already weak storm peters out before the coastal low takes over. We’ll see but I’m not overly excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: Decent track for us in OH, but an already weak storm peters out before the coastal low takes over. We’ll see but I’m not overly excited yet. I'll take 4" . Not a lot but a lot better than what we've had so far which is practically nothing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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