Interior NW & NE Burbs 2019

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, West Mtn NY said:

May Storm King Mtn protect me from all warm intrusions to my South. The consistency of the Euro here has been remarkable and the NAM has joined the party. Steep drop off not far South though still sets me up for disappointment here in Cornwall on Hudson. Hoping the North trend is done. 

They took the snow out of my Sunday overnight forecast and changed it to freezing rain and sleet. It's time for a south trend to start. Added up the two day total looks like 9-12 here.

[West Point, NY]

It's evolving into a longitudinal situation as far as Sunday night goes. The further West you go the less impact the warm nose will have. Hopefully the low itself doesn't tuck any closer or we will suddenly become an ice storm here with several inches of snow as it pulls out

[Juliancolton]

My point forecast has no mention of mixing, which is probably a mistake. I'd be surprised if I didn't flip to sleet and/or drizzle for a time on Sunday night. 

[snywx]

2 hours ago, West Mtn NY said:

It's evolving into a longitudinal situation as far as Sunday night goes. The further West you go the less impact the warm nose will have. Hopefully the low itself doesn't tuck any closer or we will suddenly become an ice storm here with several inches of snow as it pulls out

You wanna be W of the river for this one. E of the river is still gonna do well ( 8-12") but someone in Ulster/Sullivan is gonna come in with a 2' spot

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, snywx said:

You wanna be W of the river for this one. E of the river is still gonna do well ( 8-12") but someone in Ulster/Sullivan is gonna come in with a 2' spot

Will take 8-12 in a Heartbeat.  West and North can keep their 12-24 

[Hitman]

I’m going to try and be mature about this, suppress my desire for big accumulations, and embrace a long duration snowy mess.  I was just out and saw them brining the roads.  That’s a good sign.

[nesussxwx]

did a bunch of prepping today for the storm. really excited for the first storm of the year. looks like middletown through poughkeepsie is the prime area for big totals, might just be a little too south for feet but will still see some good totals down here for sure.

[snywx]

29 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

did a bunch of prepping today for the storm. really excited for the first storm of the year. looks like middletown through poughkeepsie is the prime area for big totals, might just be a little too south for feet but will still see some good totals down here for sure.

You should still see close to 12”. Lots of surprises are in store for many

[NepaJames8602]

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

NYZ018-044-056-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-011100-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0011.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
Onondaga-Cortland-Broome-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Cortland, Binghamton,
Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton,
Milford, and Honesdale
349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 9 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne,
  Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York,
  Onondaga, Cortland, Broome and Sullivan counties.

* WHEN...A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will
  overspread the area Sunday morning, and continue through the
  daytime hours. The wintry mix then changes to all snow after
  midnight Sunday night, and could be heavy at times through the
  day Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest period of snow is expected to
  occur later Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall rates up to 2
  inches per hour are expected at times. Temperatures hover in the
  mid 20s to lower 30s through the event.

[Hitman]

24f here fwiw.  Thinking I have time for a hike tomorrow morning before the party starts.  Then hunkering down and watching some football.  Good luck all.

[Juliancolton]

I'm surprised that watches are still up, now inside of 12 hours. I'll grant that the main event isn't until Monday, but tomorrow will still be plenty messy for an advisory.

[chietanen]

4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I'm surprised that watches are still up, now inside of 12 hours. I'll grant that the main event isn't until Monday, but tomorrow will still be plenty messy for an advisory.

So funny, I actually made this exact point to them in a tweet last night. We were finally upgraded to warnings with the overnight package. 

What are your thoughts on the storm? I’m a little hesitant to buy into the big totals on some models given mixing issues and dry-slotting, but I’m not sure I buy the degree of shadowing that some of the high res models are showing. 
 

This will be the first big snowfall since we bought our new house in May. I bought an Ego snowblower yesterday, the first time I’ve owned one. Looking forward to trying it out over the next couple of days. 

[West Point, NY]

5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I'm surprised that watches are still up, now inside of 12 hours. I'll grant that the main event isn't until Monday, but tomorrow will still be plenty messy for an advisory.

They didn't have to pull the trigger because of the long duration. They gave themselves a window to back down without going from a warning to an advisory

[Hitman]

26f here.   Fingers crossed.

[gravitylover]

Up to 22 here, wind has gone nearly calm, ceiling to the north and east is still high with breaks in the clouds but south and west is gray and ominous. Are we going to see enough ice down here that I should be worried about the power going out? I haven't test run my generator in a long time :blush:

[Hitman]

Brief light groupel shower

[hudsonvalley21]

Same here with the groupel  shower 22/15. 12z NAM still being generous 

 

[gravitylover]

Graupel/sleet here too but only for a few minutes. Temp up a degree at 23 with the wind out of the NNE @ 2<>4. 

[Tpalm5]

Sleet/Graupel/Freezing Rain mix @ 22 degrees in Cornwall. Roads will be slick quickly at these temps.

[Juliancolton]

6 hours ago, chietanen said:

So funny, I actually made this exact point to them in a tweet last night. We were finally upgraded to warnings with the overnight package. 

What are your thoughts on the storm? I’m a little hesitant to buy into the big totals on some models given mixing issues and dry-slotting, but I’m not sure I buy the degree of shadowing that some of the high res models are showing. 
 

This will be the first big snowfall since we bought our new house in May. I bought an Ego snowblower yesterday, the first time I’ve owned one. Looking forward to trying it out over the next couple of days. 

It's good to see you board-side! We're often on the same wavelength so not surprised we both raised an eyebrow at how statements were handled yesterday. Sure, it was and is an uncertain forecast regarding total accumulations, but I think the goalposts are actually rather narrow for sensible weather impacts. Significant accumulations of frozen precip have been a near-lock for a few days. That's more than we can say about many systems, even in the past few seasons.

I honestly haven't had much time to delve into the model data, so I'm in more of a wait-and-see mode than usual. Given the paradox of overrunning (stronger WAA = more precip but quicker mixing), I don't have huge expectations for today. It's especially discouraging to hear reports of sleet already (and even fzra in Newburgh, per my dad). You can cool the melting layer back down with strong enough lift, but only so much, and only for so long before the warm flow wins out. I'll finally have a chance this afternoon to pore over the forecast soundings and cross-sections for the potential deformation snows tomorrow, but as of now I think that's going to be the bigger story.

Just at a cursory look, the banding on the hi-res RGEM is really impressive, and it's not terribly far off from the NAM and extended HRRR in terms of low and CCB placement. This would get most of us to double-digit totals even if today fails to deliver.

[NepaJames8602]

God awful out there here in the Poconos above 2k. Temp hovering around 20 degrees with freezing rain/sleet past three hours.

[nycemt123]

Could someone please explain to me why it's regular rain in Rockland County while it's 27°? Not even a freezing rain nor sleet...

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[gravitylover]

I'd like to see what's going on upstairs. It's mixed sleet and rain here which tells me it's alternating layers of warm and cold with a warm layer pretty low down. 

[Hitman]

30f ice and freezing rain coming down pretty good since almost exactly noon.

im all positioned with salt and snow shovel.  Full load of wood in the house.  Hooked up the gutter heater cable too.

[NJsnow89]

Freezing rain here in Piscataway NJ. Everything is icy 

[Hitman]

5 hours ago, West Mtn NY said:

They didn't have to pull the trigger because of the long duration. They gave themselves a window to back down without going from a warning to an advisory

My daughter yesterday asked me why we weren’t in a warning while Ithaca was.  I dad explained about the different nws offices, timing differences and the lesser impact of today’s precipitation here.  Her eyes glazed over and sighed.

[nycemt123]

My daughter yesterday asked me why we weren’t in a warning while Ithaca was.  I dad explained about the different nws offices, timing differences and the lesser impact of today’s precipitation here.  Her eyes glazed over and sighed.

Long story short, I tell people who ask me that it's for insurance reasons lol

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[nycemt123]

It's good to see you board-side! We're often on the same wavelength so not surprised we both raised an eyebrow at how statements were handled yesterday. Sure, it was and is an uncertain forecast regarding total accumulations, but I think the goalposts are actually rather narrow for sensible weather impacts. Significant accumulations of frozen precip have been a near-lock for a few days. That's more than we can say about many systems, even in the past few seasons.
I honestly haven't had much time to delve into the model data, so I'm in more of a wait-and-see mode than usual. Given the paradox of overrunning (stronger WAA = more precip but quicker mixing), I don't have huge expectations for today. It's especially discouraging to hear reports of sleet already (and even fzra in Newburgh, per my dad). You can cool the melting layer back down with strong enough lift, but only so much, and only for so long before the warm flow wins out. I'll finally have a chance this afternoon to pore over the forecast soundings and cross-sections for the potential deformation snows tomorrow, but as of now I think that's going to be the bigger story.
Just at a cursory look, the banding on the hi-res RGEM is really impressive, and it's not terribly far off from the NAM and extended HRRR in terms of low and CCB placement. This would get most of us to double-digit totals even if today fails to deliver.

Since I can't ask this in the main threads (plus I live in Rockland County & tend to enjoy interacting over here more than the main threads, feel like I've been closer with you guys for longer), can you explain to me if the freezing rain & sleet means that there's less likelihood of higher snowfall amounts, or rather, that it's negligible because part 2 is probably happening either way?

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[Hitman]

5 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:

Long story short, I tell people who ask me that it's for insurance reasons lol

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I’m a lawyer, I make short stories long.

[Hitman]

2 minutes ago, nycemt123 said:

Since I can't ask this in the main threads (plus I live in Rockland County & tend to enjoy interacting over here more than the main threads, feel like I've been closer with you guys for longer), can you explain to me if the freezing rain & sleet means that there's less likelihood of higher snowfall amounts, or rather, that it's negligible because part 2 is probably happening either way?

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Again, I’m a lawyer and have no idea what I’m talking about, but I tend to think that whatever form the precip is taking now, has no bearing on what happens in round 2.  And furthermore, the forecasts down here weren’t counting on much from round 1, so it’s not going to make much difference either way in the storm totals.