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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2019


gravitylover
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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

This isn't uncommon with heavier rainfall rates, how have the two compared in less tropical rains? 

They're usually pretty close to each other... I think that's the biggest difference I've seen so far in the 7 months I've had the Ambient. I don't have the hard data to make any concrete statements, but it *seems* like duration has a bigger impact on precision than intensity with my setup. Like if it rains all day and night, the discrepancy between the two gauges is more significant than during just a quick-hitting deluge. Could just be making stuff up though

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I've been acclimated to the humidity for a while, but my patience for it is starting to wear thin. Whereas a few weeks ago I would have powered through this stuff to keep my landscaping projects on track, now I'm happy just sitting in the AC and getting work done on the computer. It happens in the winter too... by the end of Feb I'll be "used to" the biting cold, just thoroughly sick of it. I've thought for a long time that the world would be a better place if we cycled through the seasons about 33% faster.

Hopefully that dying MCV over the Catskills doesn't hamper instability in its environment for storms later.

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You rarely see Orange County mentioned in SPC,s meso discussion. Watch hoisted till 9pm tonight.

Mesoscale Discussion 1621
< Previous MD
MD 1621 graphic
   Mesoscale Discussion 1621
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1139 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of the northern NJ...southern NY and much
   of New Enlgand

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 311639Z - 311745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
   the next couple of hours and shift northeast across the Northeast
   U.S. These storms will pose a threat from strong, locally damaging
   winds, and a watch may be needed in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating ahead of a surface cold front was
   apparent in 16z observations from the mid-Atlantic into New England
   where temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s were already being
   reported. Southwesterly low level flow is maintaining a very moist
   boundary layer, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s.
   The net result is a corridor of 1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the region.
   An MCV was noted in radar loops, approaching Albany NY as of 1620z.
   Thunderstorms were beginning to intensify on the southern flank of
   this feature across Ulster and Orange counties in NY, and Sussex
   county in NJ. Given the aforementioned downstream environment,
   continued intensification of these storms is expected. While
   effective shear remains modest (around 25 kt) some localized
   enhancement aided by the MCV is possible, and organized line
   segments capable of mainly strong, locally damaging wind gusts is
   possible as storms track east/northeast through the afternoon. 

   Additional CU development was noted in visible satellite imagery
   across portions of CT into RI and MA where the strongest heating has
   occurred. A surface trough also was apparent in late surface
   analysis stretching from the Chesapeake Bay vicinity northeast into
   central ME. Convective initiation could eventually occur from the CU
   field, which appears to be co-located with the surface trough.
   Modest deep layer flow and midlevel lapse rates will temper more
   intense cells. However, high PW values and sufficient instability,
   combined with steepening low level lapse rates will support multiple
   bands of storms capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts. A
   watch may be needed in the next hour or so across portions of the
   Northeast.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/31/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40587281 40427378 40717447 41007472 41497464 41907449
               42517378 43397256 44007163 44277105 44317052 44147025
               43917020 43347037 42547070 41867098 41477132 41097165
               40667253 40587281 
 
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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Got wet enough that things were still wet this morning but not enough to not water the garden this morning. 

In my postage stamp back yard, if I miss watering my very few vegetables, even once, I get a visit from Social Services. As always .....

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