IrishRob17 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 My 4" snow pack had an LE of 1.09", not sure what it is now, tough to get a core of what I have left but as of this morning I still had snow coverage down in my little hollow but on the way to work I could see open areas took a hit, still coverage in the woods though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 We ice jam, apparently https://www.facebook.com/NewPaltzFireDepartment/posts/1193136700850373 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 If you want winter come slide down my driveway and try not to land on your bum (or worse). That ought to remind you that it doesn't really have to look like winter to be winter. @Juliancolton how's the ice up there? It looks like most of the shallower ponds did ok but there are big open patches in the reservoirs and all of the faster moving creeks opened back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: If you want winter come slide down my driveway and try not to land on your bum (or worse). That ought to remind you that it doesn't really have to look like winter to be winter. @Juliancolton how's the ice up there? It looks like most of the shallower ponds did ok but there are big open patches in the reservoirs and all of the faster moving creeks opened back up. Ditto on creeks. Coverage on ponds and lakes didn't take much of a hit, although there are all sorts of pools of water and slush on top of the original ice. The pre-snow layer is still more than thick enough for ice fishing, you just end up breaking through the new surface and getting your feet wet the whole way out. I'm sure there's a more technical name for it or a better way to describe it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 I couldn't tell for sure but it looked like the surface had frozen back up nicely. The places that are frozen pretty much look good and firm, if not tonight ought to get them there. I can't get out into the woods yet so I'm stuck looking at ice and trying to figure out if the ground surface is frozen by looking out the car window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted January 26, 2019 Share Posted January 26, 2019 My lake is totally frozen. Beautiful out. 17f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2019 Author Share Posted January 27, 2019 Well, if I go with the pre rain amount and call the storm a few days ago 4" then this ^^ would put me at 15" for the year but if I go with the post rain then I'd be at 13. I'm also having a hard time justifying using a mid November storm in the winter totals. I didn't consider the post Irene or Sandy snowstorms as winter storms and don't think the one this year should count either. I think T-giving is ok but before that doesn't feel right the same way April 1st is the tail end cutoff for me. So take that out and 3" or 5" sounds pretty terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 33 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Well, if I go with the pre rain amount and call the storm a few days ago 4" then this ^^ would put me at 15" for the year but if I go with the post rain then I'd be at 13. I'm also having a hard time justifying using a mid November storm in the winter totals. I didn't consider the post Irene or Sandy snowstorms as winter storms and don't think the one this year should count either. I think T-giving is ok but before that doesn't feel right the same way April 1st is the tail end cutoff for me. So take that out and 3" or 5" sounds pretty terrible. Snowfall is snowfall. In my records though I do keep a Dec-Feb winter total and well as an annual total for the full snow season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I still have about 90% coverage of a 2” mini glacier on my property. 4-6” incoming for those in western areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Snowfall is snowfall. In my records though I do keep a Dec-Feb winter total and well as an annual total for the full snow season. Yeah, exactly... it has to be included in one season or another. I don't have a problem with folks doing as they please with their personal snowfall records. For me though, mid-November is pretty clearly within the sensible realm of winter. Christmas music would have been on the radio for weeks already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Winter storm watch for 6-10 here in the Poconos for Tuesday. Should be interesting. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 NYZ036-045-046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-282015- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.A.0003.190129T1200Z-190130T1200Z/ Madison-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike- Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Hamilton, Oneida, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus, Equinunk, Milford, and Honesdale 305 PM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Northern Wayne, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Madison, Chenango, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN... Snow is expected to develop Tuesday morning and continue through Tuesday night. Snow may be moderate to heavy at times. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 13 hours ago, snywx said: I still have about 90% coverage of a 2” mini glacier on my property. 4-6” incoming for those in western areas After yesterday I have about 40% ice coverage in the yard with 80-90% coverage in the woods. Nothing at my snow stake now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail. Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM. Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now). I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed. Temps within 2F of what i wrote. This is big...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985... not 1994. Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F. Lets see what the models deliver the next several days... not some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: They were skating on Culvers Lake here in nw NJ yesterday---large lake on 206 near the Appalachian Trail. Should add at least 6" ice thickness by Friday 8AM. Piles of snow/ice left in Wantage but overall we have to call it a Trace (for now). I haven't changed any of my thinking from yesterdays post for the entire period discussed. Temps within 2F of what i wrote. This is big...for Chicago I think they need to be talking coldest since 1985... not 1994. Just my take...EC continues 2m low near near -26F. Lets see what the models deliver the next several days... not some are trending colder tracks than yesterdays modeling for the Feb events. Another impressive event will be the lake effect snows forecasted. For instance, the Tug hill area could get 2-3 feet of snow with 40 mph winds with temperatures hovering around 0. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 57 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Another impressive event will be the lake effect snows forecasted. For instance, the Tug hill area could get 2-3 feet of snow with 40 mph winds with temperatures hovering around 0. Sounds like a typical autumn day on the Tug. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Sounds like a typical autumn day on the Tug. Yea just a bit later in the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 28, 2019 Share Posted January 28, 2019 Advisories are up,,,,https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ069&warncounty=NYC087&firewxzone=NYZ069&local_place1=New City NY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory&lat=41.1538&lon=-73.9918#.XE9zbS2ZO9Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 13.8° I just can't see any rain up here tomorrow. Pretty sure the mid levels will be okay and I don't think it breaks 30 tomorrow so this should be all snow. It will be interesting to see what we can squeeze out of it. Not expecting to beat the 10 inches from November 15th, or even come close, but beating last weeks 5.0 inches of snow followed of course by 1 inch of compression would be nice, just minus the ice this time. What a thought an event with just snow. Is it possible? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pitmaster15 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Very light snow falling here in Sloatsburg at the moment, 25 degrees. Hoping we get a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 9 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: 13.8° I just can't see any rain up here tomorrow. Pretty sure the mid levels will be okay and I don't think it breaks 30 tomorrow so this should be all snow. It will be interesting to see what we can squeeze out of it. Not expecting to beat the 10 inches from November 15th, or even come close, but beating last weeks 5.0 inches of snow followed of course by 1 inch of compression would be nice, just minus the ice this time. What a thought an event with just snow. Is it possible? Stay tuned. Most of the mesos have the freezing line surging north of me around 0z tonight. I would agree with hedging toward mostly or all snow, albeit a wet snow (which is nice in its own right). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Just now, Juliancolton said: Most of the mesos have the freezing line surging north of me around 0z tonight. I would agree with hedging toward mostly or all snow, albeit a wet snow (which is nice in its own right). I'm wondering about tomorrow, hoping for some blowing and drifting. Those of us near open fields don't need a lot of snow to get some good drifts building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I'm wondering about tomorrow, hoping for some blowing and drifting. Those of us near open fields don't need a lot of snow to get some good drifts building. This is the start of our comeback tour. I can feel it. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Juliancolton said: This is the start of our comeback tour. I can feel it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 There's been a nice trend on the HRRR of prolonging the duration of the snow. The back edge doesn't clear the river until after midnight now. It probably goes without saying, but we definitely want to see the LP wave develop more quickly as it rides the front. On some of the runs that show a more pronounced circulation over LI or CT, you can see the inflection point taking shape close to NYC such that precip north of there has a pivoting component to its movement. Not quite a conveyor belt structure, but the first signs of an emerging cloud head. On the whole, this has the potential to be a nice little event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: I'm wondering about tomorrow, hoping for some blowing and drifting. Those of us near open fields don't need a lot of snow to get some good drifts building. I would love for us to be under a snow squall warning tomorrow afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 Already 1.3" otg Wasn't expecting this much this early.. Radar is starting to fill in as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Watch out for the heat miser 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Already 1.3" otg Wasn't expecting this much this early.. Radar is starting to fill in as well Only 0.3 OTG so far here. 27/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 29, 2019 Share Posted January 29, 2019 1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Watch out for the heat miser Well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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