Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: I was speaking with Chuck This was as far as i got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: From wes to me....wes always delivers bad news Jay Hatem Angela wrote a really good and important article on how the GFS has been degraded because of the shut down. Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implementedright as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to ake the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS. That's why Jason noted that there was a slight chance of a snowstorm. The Euro and its ensembles mostly miss us or give us a dusting. That doesn't guarantee no snow storm as it could be wrong as we're still far enough out in time that no model has a lot of skill. Euro had us warm next week and was reluctant to buy into the pattern change timing but the broke gfs caught onto first...maintenance is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This thread is already unreadable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: This thread is already unreadable You finally off work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You finally off work? Trying to help convert the new files to MS Access so the GFS can process them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Rayno thinks EURO is correct he is doing a live broadcast from AMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Rayno thinks EURO is correct he is doing a live broadcast from AMS Nothing is right yet...it's Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Rayno thinks EURO is correct he is doing a live broadcast from AMS Well this 0z run or maybe 6z is when things should start to fall apart if they are going to so maybe 18z was a warning shot. Euro is rarely denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Well this 0z run or maybe 6z is when things should start to fall apart if they are going to so maybe 18z was a warning shot. Euro is rarely denied. It was denied even 36 hours out as recently as the 12/9/18 storm for the southern half of the subforum. Only the Canadian had it sniffed out at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: It was denied even 36 hours out as recently as the 12/9/18 storm for the southern half of the subforum. Only the Canadian had it sniffed out at that range. You're right about that, Euro didn't have the northern push of that storm well modeled at all IMO. Crazier things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: From wes to me....wes always delivers bad news Jay Hatem Angela wrote a really good and important article on how the GFS has been degraded because of the shut down. Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implementedright as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to ake the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS. That's why Jason noted that there was a slight chance of a snowstorm. The Euro and its ensembles mostly miss us or give us a dusting. That doesn't guarantee no snow storm as it could be wrong as we're still far enough out in time that no model has a lot of skill. Not sure where "Angela" got her info, but I find it hard to believe that a change to the most critical aspect of a weather model performing properly just happens on a whim with no extensive period of testing and verification before going live. I call BS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not sure where "Angela" got her info, but I find it hard to believe that a change to the most critical aspect of a weather model performing properly just happens on a whim with no extensive period of testing and verification before going live. I call BS..In my meeting with Jason Samenow I mentioned this and he said it’s true. There are issues they haven’t been able to fix due to the shutdown. Both Jason and “Angela” are CWG journalists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: It was denied even 36 hours out as recently as the 12/9/18 storm for the southern half of the subforum. Only the Canadian had it sniffed out at that range. I'm not focusing on the exact placement of the precip shield. The bigger question at this lead is the strength of the storm. And the euro/eps is convincingly weak and has been for several runs. Gfs moved in that direction. The Dec storm was modeled strong way far in advance and models never let up. I agree that in the short range there were questions about how far the precip would push north but the strength was never in question. Right now that's very much in question. My gut says the euro is right about a weaker/sheared meager qpf maker. I want the gfs to be right but the euro is statistically superior at h5 in the med range. If all models show a pretty strong low with copious qpf then it's easy to feel comfortable being on the northern edge leading into the short range. Until then my only concern is how organized/strong the storm can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: In my meeting with Jason Samenow I mentioned this and he said it’s true. There are issues they haven’t been able to fix due to the shutdown. Both Jason and “Angela” are CWG journalists. His office wrote the article so I would expect him to say its true. I’m not saying one way or another if the article is true but that’s not essentially earth shattering news what you shared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 His office wrote the article so I would expect him to say its true. Not saying one way or another but that’s not essentially earth shattering news. Yeah, that’s true. But at the same time it’s WaPo... I think dismissing it as false is very foolish. And plus, that wasn’t mentioned in the post Yeoman was quoting. Couldn’t tell if he understood that the source wasn’t just some random person spouting off BS. That was more my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: In my meeting with Jason Samenow I mentioned this and he said it’s true. There are issues they haven’t been able to fix due to the shutdown. Both Jason and “Angela” are CWG journalists. Sounds like their source was grasping at straws, unless EMC has no testing/QA process for data format changes. My guess is most if not all resources are/were being used to get the Fv3 to production by 1/15, with little emphasis updating the GFS regardless of the shutdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not focusing on the exact placement of the precip shield. The bigger question at this lead is the strength of the storm. And the euro/eps is convincingly weak and has been for several runs. Gfs moved in that direction. The Dec storm was modeled strong way far in advance and models never let up. I agree that in the short range there were questions about how far the precip would push north but the strength was never in question. Right now that's very much in question. My gut says the euro is right about a weaker/sheared meager qpf maker. I want the gfs to be right but the euro is statistically superior at h5 in the med range. If all models show a pretty strong low with copious qpf then it's easy to feel comfortable being on the northern edge leading into the short range. Until then my only concern is how organized/strong the storm can get. Gun to head, I’m thinking the same. Though what gives me pause with the Euro is the fact that weak SS sw have not been the trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Code yellow fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 People gonna be hard core exptrapalating the 0z NAM tomorrow night. Should be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: People gonna be hard core exptrapalating the 0z NAM tomorrow night. Should be fun! Ha. Tell me you arent comparing it to the 18Z GFS right now. I know I am. FWIW (Not much) The NAM has a weaker vort out west at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 People CHUCK gonna be hard core exptrapalating the 0z NAM tomorrow night. Should be fun! Fixed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 0z ICON looking more juicy and further north at 96. On phone so I don’t have pics unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 ICON has a stronger vort an a real nice thump incoming. Has snow starting out here mid day Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Lots of energy hanging back though on the ICON...looks weaker as it heads east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: ICON has a stronger vort an a real nice thump incoming. Has snow starting out here mid day Saturday. Ninja’d you this one def has my interest. Pretty cool to know tomorrow morning when waking up we’re under triple digits for start time. Bonafide threat. Let’s go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 A general 2-4 throughout VA and less north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 ICON seems to be taking a step to the Euro with the energy staying back in the SW. Also multiple closed areas at 500 within the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Well at least this time the high pressure isn't centered over us... Things have room to nudge North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: ICON seems to be taking a step to the Euro with the energy staying back in the SW. Also multiple closed areas at 500 within the ridge. You feel like this is a flaw with the models at this range or is it a bonafide concern with the storm? I feel like the Euro is notorious for this but obviously if most models start showing it it’s not good. For me at this point any type of snowfall is a win for many, especially more so with the potential in the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I really don’t like this run of the ICON looking closer. Stronger confluence + weaker/strung out SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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