Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I'm going to go stare at cmc 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 14 of the 20 members on the 00z GFS including the control have 4 or more inches of snow at DCA by Jan 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS EURO EPS FV3 GEFS NAM UKIE CMC all say game on... solid night of runs. Unless you’re a whiney north forum weenie who needs a HECS to be satisfied with a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Where do I find kuchera output for the Euro snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Snowfall outputs - here’s a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Fv3 Kuchera gives Central MD into SPA more snowfall than dc. Nice hit for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Let’s go. Getting HYPED!!! 0z tomorrow holds or dare I say is an improvement, and I expect watches to be hoisted at the first available moment they can be goodnight guys! Cheers. Hell of a way to kick off a great pattern. PS - 220-240 timeframe on most models is bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Dr Maybe said maybe, some of these GFS ensemble members spin up huge amounts of snow out of a very uninspiring looking pattern, what's with number five, thunder-snow or whatever gets the amount up so quickly ... not realistic looking at all ... I hope for the best but would go with 2-4" for now, slightly heavier to south, and all eyes on days 10-11 (full moon is 21st so not surprising to me that a larger event shows up then). I don't see much of a 1993 in it, more like 1899 perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, yoda said: Hmmm... 00z EURO has a small, but closed dual level h5 low at 48 Daughters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I just woke up clicked back 4 pages...was like hey that sounds good then the Euro pbp....man Ji you sure have a way with words lol. Hope he doesn't look at the nam....poor guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Latest EPS stepped back a little. Has shaved totals by roughly an inch off the mean for the DC/Balt corridor. 4 inch line is just tickling DC with amounts decreasing as you go NE to where Jackpot Land, NE MD (wonder where Jackpot boy/girl ever got to?) is firmly within the 2 inch mean. Only three major hits within the ensembles, roughly 20 showing 2 inches or less, the rest showing anywhere from 2 inches to warning criteria snows. Looking at the snowfall distribution suggests that the ensembles suggest the low sliding to our south and for the most part OTS without coastal development quick enough to impact the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Per GFS we do bettter than the last run on snow maps. Up to 6-7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The latest from LWX LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The system we`ve been watching for this weekend appears at the moment that it will come in 3 phases. 1) Mid/upper jet induced band of (mainly light) snow is likely Saturday afternoon and evening. This is due to a coupled 250 hPa jet structure (left exit against right entrance). 850-700 hPa frontal forcing and mid-level cyclonic vorticity advection pivot across the area in tandem with this upper jet couplet. This should result in decent lift and widespread light snow, with embedded moderately heavy bands possible depending on exactly where the best juxtaposition and moisture all line up together. General thinking right now is an advisory level event, with potentially near warning in any heavier bands or perhaps terrain enhanced areas of snowfall. 2) Surface low develops ahead of southern stream shortwave energy Sunday east of NC and moves offshore. Where exactly this low develops and tracks off the coast will determine how far north and west its precipitation (snow) shield gets. Right now, a track near Cape Hatteras would suggest southern MD, but the orientation of the mid-level wave and PVA could draw snow a bit further north toward the I-95 corridor. Amounts for this wave are more uncertain, but accumulating snow appears most likely south of the I-70 corridor. 3) Trailing/strung out 500 hPa northern stream wave moves across Monday. With dry advection in the low levels, any precipitation would be reliant on lingering mid-level moisture and lift with the upper low. Isolated snow showers are possible, with the highest chances over the Allegheny Front. After the weekend system, high pressure follows for the first part of next week. Another stout shortwave/clipper-like system approaches during the middle of the week bringing the next chance of precipitation. Temperatures look marginally cold at this point, and precipitation would likely be scattered/showery given current setup. Thereafter, a significant change in the upper wave pattern over NAmer seems imminent, with longwave troughing and more persistent cold possibly encroaching on the eastern CONUS beginning late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 This would be acceptable... but it's all from the Coastal which makes me a little worried. We've lost all of the safe bet initial precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The latest NAm shows pretty well what I have mentioned several times over the last few days and why I haven't been particularly high on this storm with it being at best a 1 to 2 inch type deal (3 inches if you include fluff factor/ratios) for DC and north. The biggest fly in the ointment has been/still is what we are seeing with the NS. Below we have the latest NAM run. Notice the feature circled in the NE? That is where the NS is dipping down into the US. When you compare this to the next map (00z GFS) you can see how much farther the height lines are sagging south. What this is doing is squashing the system farther to the south and not allowing it amplify/strengthen. Pretty much a double whammy as the precip shield shifts south with the low and the low is weaker thus not as able to pump moisture over the cold dome of air through the region. Pretty horrible run for our region and if it weren't for some light WAA snows well in advance of the system we would be talking shutout. Now I didn't throw the NAM up because I thought it was right. it is after all at the range and I take nothing it shows serious outside of 24-36 hours. I just threw it up there to show you how important the NS up in the NE is to our snowfall chances. If you go back through the runs the last few days you can pretty much see how our fortunes lie with how that feature sets up and moves (excepting where we see partial or full phases). Solutions that showed not as much sag south or a quicker departing NS were typically our much better solutions as they allowed the southern low to pull farther north and strengthen. Conversely the deeper sagging and/or slower departing solutions were more our duds as the NS acted to squash and weaken everything farther to our south. I still think there is potential here despite my thoughts on a weaker system. If we can get that NS feature to play nice there is actually some good upside. That is one feature I will be keeping an eye on (between gambling ) in the coming runs as the models should start really getting locked into that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 53 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I just woke up clicked back 4 pages...was like hey that sounds good then the Euro pbp....man Ji you sure have a way with words lol. Hope he doesn't look at the nam....poor guy Your a better man then me. Had 10+ pages to comb through and just called it quits after reading the first 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS - 6-8 EURO - 2-4 CMC - 6-8 UK - 4-6 ICON - 2-4 EPS - 2-4 GEFS - 3-6 Am I missing anything? Seems like we’re locked in for at least a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS - 6-8 EURO - 2-4 CMC - 6-8 UK - 4-6 ICON - 2-4 EPS - 2-4 GEFS - 3-6 Am I missing anything? Seems like we’re locked in for at least a light event. NAM - Coating - 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 The waiting is the hardest part...it is never easy around here...here's to whatever snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 06Z FV3 is an improvement from 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: 06Z FV3 is an improvement from 00Z. 1” line definitely further north. Would be curious to see if that’s all snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: 06Z FV3 is an improvement from 00Z. Not if you're in the northern 1/3 of our forum. Dropped my qpf about .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not if you're in the northern 1/3 of our forum. Dropped my qpf about .25 Fringed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 People South of DC analysis...models looking good holding firm a little north. People around DC...models are close looks like a decent event as is with room for improvement People North of DC...there are so many things that can go wrong. If this goes this way or if this happens like this nobody gets anything....just keepin it real. Ji...its a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Fringed? If we really are still fringed at 48 hours I feel good about our chances. I will worry if there is a shift south today leaving us needing a 100 mile adjustment again. We have seen numerous times how that ends. Congrats richmond EZF and Salisbury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If we really are still fringed at 48 hours I feel good about our chances. I will worry if there is a shift south today leaving us needing a 100 mile adjustment again. We have seen numerous times how that ends. Congrats richmond EZF and Salisbury Sticking with my 1-2 (maybe 3) but that is because I am stubborn more then anything else. But I do like what I am seeing so far with the NS not dropping the hammer down as much as I thought we would see. But it doesn't take much in the way of adjustments to that feature to make or break the region and we still have roughly 3 days to go. So I am sure you can do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 37 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 1” line definitely further north. Would be curious to see if that’s all snow, though. It is all snow, good CCB action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS - 6-8 EURO - 2-4 CMC - 6-8 UK - 4-6 ICON - 2-4 EPS - 2-4 GEFS - 3-6 Am I missing anything? Seems like we’re locked in for at least a light event. Yes. You forgot the NBC 4 Bread O Meter. It was right in the middle at “Grab A Loaf”. LOLz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Dr Maybe said maybe, some of these GFS ensemble members spin up huge amounts of snow out of a very uninspiring looking pattern, what's with number five, thunder-snow or whatever gets the amount up so quickly ... not realistic looking at all ... I hope for the best but would go with 2-4" for now, slightly heavier to south, and all eyes on days 10-11 (full moon is 21st so not surprising to me that a larger event shows up then). I don't see much of a 1993 in it, more like 1899 perhaps. I’m ok with a smaller event, but am also looking forward to next weekend (20-21). Isn’t 1899 the top DC snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Woodbridge02 said: This would be acceptable... but it's all from the Coastal which makes me a little worried. We've lost all of the safe bet initial precip. Don’t agree believe WAA light snow will morph into heavier snow as coastal takes over. This looks like a Miller B that can work for us because of the blocking confluence. Would take this over a fast moving Miller A. The only thing keeping this from being better is weak sauce low pressure. I am excited for my backyard and yours...and my neighbor Wonderdog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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