JakkelWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18z GEFS looks good for most of the subforum... better closer to the coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's not the confluence that's the problem. The shortwave keeps looking weaker and more sheared. Very different situation compared to last month even though the results look similar. Yeah but that will be the next thing that causes an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 I’ll take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 For DC, 18z GEFS breakdown (including control): 5/21: 0.0” 7/21: 6”+ 9/21: <6” Good signal at this range for at least a light event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Yeah but that will be the next thing that causes an issue. Could be right. My total wag is the high ends up weaker and less suppressive than currently modeled. Dec was on the heels of extended cold. This one is on the front side of cold coming. This wouldnt solve a shortwave on the ropes problem but would make it easier to get at least some snow out of the deal. Getting blanked would the only outcome that would get on my nerves. My expectations are def in check and the future looks bright. I just want to see snow falling again. It's getting ridiculous now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Snowfall mean looks even better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: For DC, 18z GEFS breakdown (including control): 5/21: 0.0” 7/21: 6”+ 9/21: <6” Good signal at this range for at least a light event. Pretty good agreement for a swva jackpot. #atmosphericmemory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty good agreement for a swva jackpot. #atmosphericmemory Yeah. Pretty good bump up for them. At least GEFS supports a juiced up system instead of a Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ok. Somebody please give me the times tonight for models (GFS and Euro specific)-I like to have something else to watch and hope for as the Bama/Clemson game unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty good agreement for a swva jackpot. #atmosphericmemory Yup, Roanoke looking like a pretty good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: Ok. Somebody please give me the times tonight for models (GFS and Euro specific)-I like to have something else to watch and hope for as the Bama/Clemson game unfolds. GFS - 11pm Euro - 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: Ok. Somebody please give me the times tonight for models (GFS and Euro specific)-I like to have something else to watch and hope for as the Bama/Clemson game unfolds. GFS Starts around 10:30pm EURO starts around 1:00am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I count 8 that are eerily similar to the Dec storm. Uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I count 8 that are eerily similar to the Dec storm. Uh oh E16 gave me a shiver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GEFS looks more juiced up at 18z compared to 12z. Bulleye for precip is just south of dc but I like where were sitting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I’ll take this Those maps are useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 From wes to me....wes always delivers bad newsJay Hatem Angela wrote a really good and important article on how the GFS has been degraded because of the shut down. Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implementedright as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to ake the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS. That's why Jason noted that there was a slight chance of a snowstorm. The Euro and its ensembles mostly miss us or give us a dusting. That doesn't guarantee no snow storm as it could be wrong as we're still far enough out in time that no model has a lot of skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: From wes to me....wes always delivers bad news Jay Hatem Angela wrote a really good and important article on how the GFS has been degraded because of the shut down. Evidently, EMC workers were deemed non-essential and there was an international format change scheduled to standardize how weather data is formatted that was being implementedright as the shutdown was declared. EMC has no one there to ake the necessary changed so that the newly formatted data can get into the models. It still gets data but not as much as it should be getting. A degradation of model scores (accuracy) commenced around Christmas. Therefore, it's probably wise to lean more on the Euro and its ensembles then the GFS. That's why Jason noted that there was a slight chance of a snowstorm. The Euro and its ensembles mostly miss us or give us a dusting. That doesn't guarantee no snow storm as it could be wrong as we're still far enough out in time that no model has a lot of skill. You didn’t think it would be that easy. Best to lower expectations right now. Dusting, dusting, dusting. Tell yourself you like cold powder in small quantities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: E16 gave me a shiver E17 gives me the Chris Matthews thrill up my pant legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 need the southern energy to be legit because there's a kicker coming from the north. as is, looks like a reasonable overrunning event and clearly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Typically I would feel bad for RIC stealing yalls snow again, but @Bob ChiII taught me this is a mby type vibe around these parts, so I’m def rooting for RIC jackpot with sharp cutoff north. #atmosphericmemorybro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: I’ll take this Everyone knows people named cody are always too far left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Before people analyze the surface and say it's a good run (it is), take a minute to absorb the 5 run upper level trend here... The direction is clear and it's very euroish You can see the issues clearer with that graphic. Energy is left back in the Southwest and and energy from the NS didn’t phase. But the bright side is this is a workable look and if we can keep the southern stream a little more consolidated as game time approaches then there’s enough here to make this work 2-5in. I wouldn’t be surprised if 0z euro consolidates the SW a little earlier over Texas and finds a middle ground with the GFS. Say 2-4in event for much of the sub forum. I’d be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty good agreement for a swva jackpot. #atmosphericmemory As long as there isn’t another wall of pressure there, it should shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: As long as there isn’t another wall of pressure there, it should shift north. I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave folks dangling from the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, Rvarookie said: I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave dangling from the cliff. I bet it verifies further north than 12/10. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Rvarookie said: I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave folks dangling from the cliff. Hey weenie, you realize how far out this is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: I was speaking with Chuck earlier and we both agreed the cyclical nature of this really favors the same locations impacted on 12/10. I think dc folks may see few flakes...just enough to wet the whistle and leave folks dangling from the cliff. Tell me more about the "Cyclical Nature".. I want to hear all about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I know it is just the surface and as Bob pointed out H5 is leaving energy in SW.. but there is a lot to like here. Look at the precip field/ area of coverage. 1040+ high pressure. Rain snow line way down in Southern VA. This is what it looks like when get high ratio storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The SV maps look like my nephew drew them with a crayon but I can’t say I’m a fan of the 18z EPS if I’m reading them right. SW looks weaker than 12z (trough is more positively tilted) as it crosses the southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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