SnowGoose69 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie looks more tucked near OBX than 12z to my untrained weenie eyes. Won’t know precip for a while though. Through 72 on the meteocentre site the precip is about the same as the CMC at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 00z GEFS mean for DCA is around 5 to 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Seeing that high depiction coming in at less than 1040. That’s good. Might end up warm front that just can’t go anywhere and snows .25-.5”ph for 20 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Bob Chill you got your wish for a slight bump in UKMET QPF. Looks like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GEFS mean for DCA is around 5 inches Qpf is about .65. .50 up to md line. Down from 18z but in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW Seems pretty reasonable. Maybe a little ambitious for area B but nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: @Bob Chill you got your wish for a slight bump in UKMET QPF. Looks like the Euro. Looks great to me with room to improve. Trend is friend. We're lasering in it seems. .5 qpf in dc might be becoming more likely than less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Solid trends tonight at h5 and 500. confluence a bit relaxed, things a bit more amped, a bit north, and the low seems to be going to OBX. The question is can the energy catch up, phase, and bomb out before it’s too late? Or does this slide south of us and never get captured. Come on euro... CAVE! 3-6” area wide is my first call, with highest amounts in dc N VA and S MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We need euro to give a bit, otherwise I’m still not buying the improvements. As bob said, it’s been insanely consistent. The caveat is that the euro is not the king it used to be by any means. If NAM inside 60 shows the euro solution, we’re in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Looks great to me with room to improve. Trend is friend. We're lasering in it seems. .5 qpf in dc might be becoming more likely than less Absolutely. Euro, GFS, and UK all show some room for improvement...add in the north shift within 48 hours and can’t help but feel 2-4” may be too low a forecast for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 IMHO, were in a great spot at this stage. Model bias with this setup is almost always to be too flat underneath, and therefor underamplifying up stream. Looking good for central Maryland and points south. I am concerned for a PSU area fringe job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: We need euro to give a bit, otherwise I’m still not buying the improvements. As bob said, it’s been insanely consistent. The caveat is that the euro is not the king it used to be by any means. If NAM inside 60 shows the euro solution, we’re in trouble. I guess I’m not really following this...are you saying the Euro isn’t a good look? Last few runs have fluctuated between 0.4-0.6” QPF. EPS continues to improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Good to see the euro trending better, but it does best in the 3-5 day range and it was consistently showing a flat, weak strung out mess for days. I will gladly take the improvements and run... just being weary of the burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: We need euro to give a bit, otherwise I’m still not buying the improvements. As bob said, it’s been insanely consistent. The caveat is that the euro is not the king it used to be by any means. If NAM inside 60 shows the euro solution, we’re in trouble. 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: IMHO, were in a great spot at this stage. Model bias with this setup is almost always to be too flat underneath, and therefor underamplifying up stream. Looking good for central Maryland and points south. I am concerned for a PSU area fringe job. 2 minutes apart but worlds apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I’ve been seeing two different worlds on the models for days. I do agree with the fact that trend has been good since 12z. What I mean is that I’m weary of what the euro was showing for days straight. I feel much better about the storm tonight than I did last night I worked from 6a- 1030p. I’m tired sorry haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 @Bob Chill and @nj2va Here is a better and closer QPF image for tonights 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 When does the euro run again? My eyes want to sleep, but My snow weenie heart want to see the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: @Bob Chill and @nj2va Here is a better and closer QPF image for tonights 00z UKIE Can you post 12z please for comparison. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, jayyy said: I’ve been seeing two different worlds on the models for days. I do agree with the fact that trend has been good since 12z. What I mean is that I’m weary of what the euro was showing for days straight. I worked from 6a- 1030p. I’m tired sorry haha Got it now. Sure, always best to be skeptical until you see snow falling from the sky. But hard to bet against the Euro within 100 hours of the storm. Also starting to see the goalposts tighten on the other models. I think we’re in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I like the .01 improvement on the Ukie from 0.0 any chance i can get some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: Can you post 12z please for comparison. Thanks in advance This is what the 12z UKIE looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: This is what 12z looked like Wow that is a major improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Looks like the FV3 has the double Low to a certain degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Double barrel popping up again on the fv. Prob just a fart by the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I can extrapolate about .47qpf on the ukie and 12:1 ratios = 5.6" in my yard. Ukie and euro aren't far apart. At least for another 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Does the Ukie bring rain to RVA with those high qpf totals?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can extrapolate about .47qpf on the ukie and 12:1 ratios = 5.6" in my yard. Ukie and euro aren't far apart. At least for another 30 mins Don’t you go jinxing us!! I hope to god the euro trends even better. If it shows a 3-6” event, I’m sold on a moderate event for DC - baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Double barrel popping up again on the fv. Prob just a fart by the models Either that or the storm is literally gonna fart out another low and then leave the room after it's done...(I mean, it is coming out the back end on the models, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I can extrapolate about .47qpf on the ukie and 12:1 ratios = 5.6" in my yard. Ukie and euro aren't far apart. At least for another 30 mins Why is the Euro upping it to 10 inches. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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