psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks okay at hr 78...we shall see. Lol and that's why I should keep my mouth shut until it plays out. At 84 it seemed destined to wash out then it reamped along the coast quickly and ended up a better run. Still a crap result for me but a good run for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS made a step to the ECM good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm good with the gfs. 2-6" through the area and moved max stripe nw. Seems like a nice little extra QPF bump...in Derwood. Hmmmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm good with the gfs. 2-6" through the area and moved max stripe nw. man...you sound like the guy in Upstate SC who has never seen snow before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I didnt see any sig differences other than slp being north. Seemed like noise. I thought 18z's vort progression should have been as good or better than last run. The 0z run gets some good CCB action going with the coastal esp for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Uh yeah id say thats a jump north on the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Think this is the start of a trend?? We have to wait and see..gefs will be helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I think the GFS was better all around. It held the waa snow together a little better and then had the coastal low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lol and that's why I should keep my mouth shut until it plays out. At 84 it seemed destined to wash out then it reamped along the coast quickly and ended up a better run. Still a crap result for me but a good run for you! Yeah I would t**e it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, midatlanticweather said: Think this is the start of a trend?? We have to wait and see..gefs will be helpful A trend for what? An advisory snow event for the area? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I think the GFS was better all around. It held the waa snow together a little better and then had the coastal low closer to the coast. Strongly agree. I know it's getting near the end of the usefulness for the ensembles... but GEFS should be real interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, Ji said: man...you sound like the guy in Upstate SC who has never seen snow before Nope. I'm just huggin the euro. Gfs. Looks similar now. You can hug the screwed up dual low cmc. Model is missing the tranfer physics tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 GFS is still a 3-5 event for all of us. I would be happy with that for sure after what we were looking at a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 i think the GFS is too light with the precip North esp with the location of the Low. Still..the blue is really close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 has shifted the WAA snow further south. Looks good through 80 on a light to moderate event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The 0z run gets some good CCB action going with the coastal esp for eastern areas. Yea, i like it. I thought the 18z should have done the same thing. All in all things look pretty good. Unless you expect 8-12". That's gonna hurt on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, 87storms said: goal posts are narrowing on a md and/or va special. tbd on whether this nudges north some. it's a slightly better run than 18z for dc proper. @Bob Chill It will nudge north the last 36 hours. Bob I know you have said the last 72 and for a long time that was the rule but I've noticed the last 3/4 years, since about 2015, it's been the last 36 and that nudge north is more like 39-60 miles not 50-100 anymore. But it's still real. If we are still sitting this close to that higher qpf stripe at 48 out I feel good. So far (other than some jv players) there hasn't been a south move to take us out of the game for that bump to place us into the max snowfall band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nope. I'm just huggin the euro. Gfs. Looks similar now. You can hug the screwed up dual low cmc. Model is missing the tranfer physics tonight. LOL that 2nd low delivers some more snow to us after our 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I think a good range should be 2-4 inches. Full stop. If we get more, great. If we get less, that sucks... but its accumulating snow finally. No one should be expecting something like 8 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, i like it. I thought the 18z should have done the same thing. All in all things look pretty good. Unless you expect 8-12". That's gonna hurt on sunday. i blame PSU for whipping out the CIPS stuff when he knew that 500s didnt support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I’m in the blue. Barely. I can sleep on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 FV3 is a solid .5 for everyone up just north of the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Hugging the maple tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Folks will not let me forget last month, will they? Smh Gonna be trolled for the rest of the winter. Unnecessary...I ain't gone off once since. Now every one of my questions is being treated in the context of last month. I was being serious. Not about up all night that's just a saying but about how this could fall apart if it did. I'm not predicting that but one thing I do every threat is determine what our most likely way to get screwed is so that I can see it right away if things start to unravel. Way too often I'm right about the "how it will fall apart" thing when I wish I was always wrong. Always bet against snow here and you will look smart most of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill It will nudge north the last 36 hours. Bob I know you have said the last 72 and for a long time that was the rule but I've noticed the last 3/4 years, since about 2015, it's been the last 36 and that nudge north is more like 39-60 miles not 50-100 anymore. But it's still real. If we are still sitting this close to that higher qpf stripe at 48 out I feel good. So far (other than some jv players) there hasn't been a south move to take us out of the game for that bump to place us into the max snowfall band. I strongly believe we will either be within the general max stripe (however much that is) or just to to the north of it. Feeling like a nice to look at and watch event is a lock at this point. 2" covers the grass and like nearly all of our forum members have a really good chance at that. Upside is there but i'll wait until really short range has that figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Both the cmc and GFS have the coastal low in the same place. The cmc has more precip to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: FV3 is a solid .5 for everyone up just north of the Mason Dixon. Is this QPF all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Is this QPF all snow? From about ezf north give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, Ji said: i blame PSU for whipping out the CIPS stuff when he knew that 500s didnt support it lol, but it does look good though until crosses the mountains, which could argue for that typical north nudge. i'd like to see the euro hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, Scraff said: Seems like a nice little extra QPF bump...in Derwood. Hmmmmmmm. I just moved here. It won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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