Hurricanegiants Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Roller coaster run. Are there not scenarios in the past where we see a light/mod event (1-3) and then the coastal robs the moisture and takes it off the coast? Is that what we might be seeing here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 More than losing the light stuff, it moves off faster and doesn't deepen as much off the coast. Uppers are better so, not sure what to think. Next! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, jackb979 said: 00z runs will be interesting to see if the GFS is onto something or if that split at hr 84 is just noise 18z Euro goes out to 90 so we should get an answer sooner than that. And then a new set of data to digest at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: Yeah man. Everyone I know cashed last year except me haha. Now I'm definitely not going to cash much out here, but I'll be home in less than 2 weeks, right in the heart of when we could see something. I'd love nothing more than to see a bomb before I head home. Whites Neck Road is the Millville jackpot for snow. Has the upper air sampling factored into the modeling of the shortwave energy and the pathway through the CONUS to the MA been modeled yet using upper air sounding data or is this currently govt shutdown furloughed? Have the big players been sampled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Roller coaster run. Are there not scenarios in the past where we see a light/mod event (1-3) and then the coastal robs the moisture and takes it off the coast? Is that what we might be seeing here.... What you're seeing is a mid level boxing match between a beast hp and waa precip bumping right against it. We had a storm in 2015 iirc where the northern edge got gobbled in real time even though all short range guidance said precip would win. Very different type of storm because that was a northern stream shortwave and this is a southern one. The ultimate best case is for lp to get going off the coast. Dynamics can really crank when there's a pressure war going on. Euro has really light snowfall for 12 hours from the waa precip. It adds up over time though. That piece of the puzzle won't be figured out until it's basically about to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, WeatherQ said: Whites Neck Road is the Millville jackpot for snow. Has the upper air sampling factored into the modeling of the shortwave energy and the pathway through the CONUS to the MA been modeled yet using upper air sounding data or is this currently govt shutdown furloughed? Have the big players been sampled yet? Yes. There isn't a stoppage in upper air sampling with the shutdown. In fact, I literally just came in for prepping the balloon for MAF lol. Satellite data nowadays is more than capable for filling some of the void. Our main pieces are still out over water, so a full RAOB ingestion with each feature should be on board within the next 24 hours. I don't know if it'll make a difference however. Models are starting to get the idea of how this will play out. Just a few more discernible details to nail down, then we can start talking amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Fv3 falling in line with everything else Now has. 25 in northern md to .50 south of DC. I haven't been too impressed so far with it. Seems to be out on an island at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Fv3 falling in line with everything else Now has. 25 in northern md to .50 south of DC. I haven't been too impressed so far with it. Seems to be out on an island at times. 0.25” line is north of state college, PA. Pretty close to its 12z run for our area. It seems to be coming around to the consensus position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 This is the first time we can actually use 18 and 6z euro...sad and awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 One thing that makes this storm a little unusual it it's a pretty organized and juicey system in the midwest but conditions deteriorate as it moves east. More often we're dealing with a weak system and hoping it get's stronger as it gets closer. This one is getting weaker. If we did't have strong confluence and a big hp to the north, this one would almost certainly be a mixed event or even west track. It would be really amped up and big qpf maker but that wouldnt mean all (or any) snow. So the big/cold hp and confluence that's allowing a good track and all snow event is also the reason the storm gets sheared and loses energy as it moves through. Cuts both ways in this case. However, it really wouldn't take much for it to be a pretty good hit either. 18z gfs looked really good in the upper levels when the storm tracked through the midwest. That's a good sign imo. Since the upper levels become hostile as it approaches our region, one of the things we want to root for is as strong a storm as possible before shear starts doing its thing. Gfs was really good with that part imho. Because of that i'm not sure everyone realizes how close it was to bigger impact here. Closest yet in the last day or 2. @WxUSAF posted exactly what i was thinking irt the upper levels not matching the surface. I'd much rather see that than crap upper levels and robust surface. It's not instant gratification because the surface isnt dumping on us but don't ignore the fact that the shortwave looked more consolidated and organized than the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z gefs is juicier than 12z gefs and 18z op. Solid run and supports a stronger more organized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z GEFS snowfall mean is 6 to 7 inches for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Keanuwhoa.gif Unusual to see the GEFS diverge from the Op like that at this lead-time. Red flag for the Op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs is juicier than 12z gefs and 18z op. Solid run and supports a stronger more organized system. Great call by you and WxUSAF analyzing the upper levels and seeing the improvement. I'd say this supports that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z GEFS snowfall mean is 6 to 7 inches for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 This paints a really nice picture of the spread. We're all praying we get at least .5 qpf. Nearly half are an inch or more in dc. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 A report on WTOPsaid that the American models are less accurate because some of the instruments are not being calibrated on a daily basis as usual because of the government shutdown. As a result models such as the GFS and others may be off. They also said that some of the data may not be collected And missing from some of the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Goofy run. Looks so much better aloft than what transpires at the surface. Hell, surface looks great through about 60 hours. Confluence from the northeast seems slight better if anything from 12z, no worse at the very least. The 18z gfs made sense to me honestly. There is a piece of energy that goes from the GOA over the ridge and then kind of phases in with the TPV. If you look at the 12z gfs to the 18z gfs this streamer is a bit stronger and causes a bit more of a southward press of the confluence negating the stronger s/w effects. You can see the hgt lines in New england are a bit further south. The question is will it be right or wrong. That piece of energy isn't in a data rich area. The evaporation of the precip makes sense. When you have a CAD setup, what usually happen? We have a big high that funnels down cold dry air east of the apps, thus lots of virga usually due to the low dew points. So the tandem of downsloping effect combined with very dry air causes the precip shield to get eaten up IMO. Thats why places west of the apps are wetter because they aren't experiencing the CAD effects like we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Damn that's some spread on the GEFS. More big hitters than duds though, so that's good to see. We're still (barely) at the range where the ensemble mean should beat a given Op run. Interesting to see both the GEFS and EPS means be better solutions for us than the Ops. I'm very good with that today, but if that's still happening at 18z tomorrow and beyond, that starts to get concerning that the Ops are handling subtle features better than ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z GEFS indiv ensembles through 144 16 including the Control give DCA 2"+ 11 including the Control give DCA 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This paints a really nice picture of the spread. We're all praying we get at least .5 qpf. Nearly half are an inch or more in dc. Lol Wow that's quite a spread. Everything from basically several whiffs to several major storms to HECS to several very solid warning level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Damn that's some spread on the GEFS. More big hitters than duds though, so that's good to see. We're still (barely) at the range where the ensemble mean should beat a given Op run. Interesting to see both the GEFS and EPS means be better solutions for us than the Ops. I'm very good with that today, but if that's still happening at 18z tomorrow and beyond, that starts to get concerning that the Ops are handling subtle features better than ensembles. 10 of the 20 a huge hits... with 3 pretty much whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Keanuwhoa.gif Unusual to see the GEFS diverge from the Op like that at this lead-time. Red flag for the Op? Quite possible. If the 18z gefs qpf mean verifies this place will be off the chain happy. Vast majority of the gefs members are better than the op. Many by a good margin too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Quite possible. If the 18z gefs qpf mean verifies this place will be off the chain happy. Vast majority of the gefs members are better than the op. Many by a good margin too And then if you play with ratios a little bit...…….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: A lot of just offshore sub 1000 lows compared to 12z . Curious to see the h5 plots on the 18z mrefs . Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions Looks pretty money to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Good call. This panel is money and explains why the gefs had so many juicy solutions wondering if this is turning into a boom (warning level) or bust (scraps) situation as opposed to a middle of the road light event. if we're talking a system weakening on approach entering a dry environment, that could pose some problems on the leeward side. however, if we have enough lift/energy/onshore flow, then it's going to lay down some good ratios over a 6 hr period, enough to probably easily reach warning level criteria. i guess i'm not all in on a long duration light event because we don't see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 anyone have the 18z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Beachin said: anyone have the 18z euro? Starts running around 7:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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