BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, I guess the only negative to mention is there aren't any classic Miller A megalopolis-slammers members in the mix. That high-end solution might be out. this will be disruptive enough as is I am sure. All snow that sticks throws people for a loop around these parts. should be winter wonderland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Sat evening start time is ideal. Cowboys divisional playoff game on TV and snow falling at night....last time that happened was Jan 7, 1996. Hmmm....wasn't that an analog yesterday. Let’s Go Cowboys! And that works for me. I’ll hope my Jebwalk post game is part celebratory too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I really like a box from Central VA up to Baltimore to be in the best position to max the storm potential for this one. Someone like Wes will probably get a nice storm to break into Met winter. I will never rule out our Parrs Ridge friends as a secondary max as history has shown, that area will find its way. Classic isentropic lift and jet coupling dynamics as Anthony mentioned in his tweet. Could be some nice surprises around the sub-forum. Wouldn't shock me if LWX went with a WWA to start and had to upgrade to a WSW for some if everything breaks right. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: i dont think he considers us Nothern Mid Atlantic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 An interesting comparison with 0z EPS is mean QPF is just a touch lower (.4-.6 through the region from north to south) and there are fewer monster hits but snowfall is better because rain solutions have evaporated and better agreement among the members for our area being right in the thick of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I really like a box from Central VA up to Baltimore to be in the best position to max the storm potential for this one. Someone like Wes will probably get a nice storm to break into Met winter. I will never rule out our Parrs Ridge friends as a secondary max as history has shown, that area will find its way. Classic isentropic lift and jet coupling dynamics as Anthony mentioned in his tweet. Could be some nice surprises around the sub-forum. Wouldn't shock me if LWX went with a WWA to start and had to upgrade to a WSW for some if everything breaks right. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS mean looks really, really good. Approaching 5" at DCA at 12z Monday. Some big hits in the mix. not a single shutout. 20% of the members would cause a meltdown (DCA/BWI/IAD <1"). It's a nudge in the the right direction but the Euro seems to be the most aggressive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, great EPS run. Almost no solutions give us less than 2". Some classic MA stripes in there too. It's getting real. I am almost as happy that any snow that does fall sticks around. Bring it on ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: An interesting comparison with 0z EPS is mean QPF is just a touch lower (.4-.6 through the region from north to south) and there are fewer monster hits but snowfall is better because rain solutions have evaporated and better agreement among the members for our area being right in the thick of it. There are definitely some members of the EPS and GEFS seeing later development of the coastal after the confluence weakens allowing the system to come more north. The Euro Op is pretty far north with the overrunning snow relative to every other model outside the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: 20% of the members would cause a meltdown (DCA/BWI/IAD <1"). It's a nudge in the the right direction but the Euro seems to be the most aggressive here. 20%??? I count 1 member with the 3 airports <1". Maybe another 3-4 with them under 2". That's some new math there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Nice. Looks like 18 that give the DC metro at least 6", and several of those are big ones. Only a couple or a small handful under 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: 20%??? I count 1 member with the 3 airports <1". Maybe another 3-4 with them under 2". That's some new math there. To my eye, E 14/19/21/27/33/35/37/38/43/44/46 are pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: 20%??? I count 1 member with the 3 airports <1". Maybe another 3-4 with them under 2". That's some new math there. EJ's math teacher was Mr Schleprock This mean is great. We're dead center for consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 20%??? I count 1 member with the 3 airports <1". Maybe another 3-4 with them under 2". That's some new math there. Fuzzy math...fake arithmetic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 42 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, my fail bar would be the majority of the region not getting at least 2" out of this. Certainly still in the realm but it's been rare when southern stream precip events dry out in the short range. That general trend has been going on for many months and should be in our favor. I literally agree with everything you just said lol There is still fail potential (any event really) but there’s also some upside with this system as well. It’s certainly not void of moisture and small timing difference in the NS and SS could bump us up from 2-4 to 5-7 pretty easily. For once it looks like our spot is favorable to miminimize downside risk with also ability to reap the upside too. We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: To my eye, E 14/19/21/27/33/35/37/38/43/44/46 are pretty bad. So 40%+ being warning level snows is completely ignored? These maps are 10-1 too. Kuchera has been consistently. 12-15:1. I get it that it's hard for you to see the bright side of anything so I'm trying to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: i dont think he considers us Nothern Mid Atlantic lol That was my question (but I was hesitant to ask...) Where does he mean? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: That was my question (but I was hesitant to ask...) Where does he mean? Lol His yard in NJ but we're in a great spot here. At this point it's best to look on the bright side. We're basically beyond worrying about a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll shed a tear for Bahstan while I'm shoveling Use your back pack blower no shovel needed with champagne powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yeah EPS looks solid. Obviously better for DC area than Baltimore area but still good with some upside if things pan out and/or ratios are legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Wow, there are more big hits in there than I was expecting. Any sort of trend towards a bigger hit in the next 2 runs and the ensembles are going to light up big time. Not probable but it shows the possibility is still alive eta: and those are 10-1 maps. Not often we can expect better ratios — nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Fuzzy math...fake arithmetic! People hallucinating and seeing either what they want to see or what scares them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: An interesting comparison with 0z EPS is mean QPF is just a touch lower (.4-.6 through the region from north to south) and there are fewer monster hits but snowfall is better because rain solutions have evaporated and better agreement among the members for our area being right in the thick of it. Quite a few members that stripe the MA coastal areas and even up through the immediate coast of NE. I don't think a low can actually run up the coast in the classic sense in this set up, but could enhance snowfall esp for E VA, DE/NJ and maybe LI as it heads ENE. There was a lot of upper level energy left behind on the 12z op run but didn't really do much at the surface, and other models have also hinted at sort of a 2 'phase' storm. Such a long duration continuous light snow event as is being advertised seems kinda unusual, so maybe there is something to the idea of a 1-2 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Personally, I see the lastest EPS as a nice consensus of an incoming event and a possibility of more favorable timing leading to bigger solutions. This is what makes this hobby fun Till it isn’t anymore and I turn down the bitter sweet path of living only for KUs like our fearless leader. Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Quite a few members that stripe the MA coastal areas and even up through the immediate coast of NE. I don't think a low can actually run up the coast in the classic sense in this set up, but could enhance snowfall esp for E VA, DE/NJ and maybe LI as it heads ENE. There was a lot of upper level energy left behind on the 12z op run but didn't really do much at the surface, and other models have also hinted at sort of a 2 'phase' storm. Such a long duration continuous light snow event as is being advertised seems kinda unusual, so maybe there is something to the idea of a 1-2 type deal. I scanned the members and quite a few (almost half?) have CCB striping our area as the low gets going off the coast. Track from there is all over (OTS or coastal scraper) but that doesn't matter for our area. IF the CCB band gets going even on an OTS solution, it's very possible we get into a warning level event if the WAA piece doesn't do it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I scanned the members and quite a few (almost half?) have CCB striping our area as the low gets going off the coast. Track from there is all over (OTS or coastal scraper) but that doesn't matter for our area. IF the CCB band gets going even on an OTS solution, it's very possible we get into a warning level event if the WAA piece doesn't do it first. I would be more than happy with a straight up and simple 2-4" WAA event with no temp or p-type issues, but the idea of getting in on some CCB action with a (somewhat late) developing coastal is also intriguing. If it happens it probably would be most impactful for places like SBY up to ACY given the progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: I would be more than happy with a straight up and simple 2-4" WAA event with no temp or p-type issues, but the idea of getting in on some CCB action with a (somewhat late) developing coastal is also intriguing. If it happens it probably would be most impactful for places like SBY up to ACY given the progressive flow. I told my dad this last night that that was a potential. He usually cashes in somehow, so it'll probably happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, MillvilleWx said: I told my dad this last night that that was a potential. He usually cashes in somehow, so it'll probably happen. He is in S DE right? That area sure has been on a bit of a hot streak the past couple winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 From LWX: LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday into Sunday, an upper level trough will move through the midwest on Saturday and shift eastward toward the mid-Atlantic region. A surface low pressure system associated with this upper level feature will form over Texas and make its way eastward. The models are disagreeing on the exact track that this surface low will take this weekend. The European tracks the low up through the Tennessee River Valley and up through the mid-Atlantic. The Euro solution is furthest north then the 12Z GFS and Canadian models. The 12Z GFS model run moves the surface low further southward and tracks through Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. This solution would bring snow too the Carolinas and northward through southern PA. The 12Z Canadian splits the European and GFS solutions by running the low up through north Carolina. These solutions all agree the region will see some snow this weekend starting sometime late Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. It is to early to really tell how much snow will occur but there is upwards potential depending whether the models track further northward. Cold air shouldn't be problem since all models agree that surface temperatures during the day will be near or below freezing with overnight temperatures in the teens and 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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