DDweatherman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Euro *just* misses the phase with the northern stream energy. Wouldn't be surprised if some EPS members do that and have an I-95 coastal special from DC-BOS. When you look at the h5 evolution early on through h72 or so, the evolution is better from a consolidated standpoint and the dig in the s/w. I can definitely see an outside chance there is a backside phase and shows the coastal special you're mentioning like some of the 12z GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Only snows that happen with instant stickage are clippers and they only drop a meager 1-2" most of the time. But those are super fun as EVERYTHING gets coated fast. That one Feb 15/16 2015 storm had instant stickage, but that storm sucked for many since that one dry slot limited totals to around 3" or 4" with WSWs hoisted prior to when the event started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll wait until 0z tonight but I'm close to setting my bar @ 2" on this one. Could trend better because we have at least 48 hours before things really dial in. I did like seeing the northern extent on the euro increase. Would hate for the 1040 to rob everything. Too much confluence showing up for a big event now. Storm can look great in MO but if the top gets sheared off as it approaches it won't look great by the time it gets here. A 2-4/3-5 deal would put a smile on everyone's face except a select few. The Dec storm that missed DC north but was sweet for EZF south had a very strong band show up about 40 miles south of where the strongest confluence made the precip dry up. i know its been talked before how that swath where lift hits the wall to the north can generate a surprise dumping so sometimes confluence can help with a meager precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I i just saw a snowflake in Arlington. Maybe a sign that the atmosphere is wetter leading to wetter storm this weekend (best Chuck impression) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I approve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 JMA is solid. .5” line Baltimore south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Blending all guidance still locks us in for at least a 2-4" event. My head is agreeing with having a light event but there is very little that needs to change for something like the 12z euro from yesterday. We're still right in the pocket for that type of solution. It's looking less and less likely that we fail completely. If anything, our area is probably in the best best spot for this one. I'm feeling pretty good right now. Sorry Ji and EJ though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Blending all guidance still locks us in for at least a 2-4" event. My head is agreeing with having a light event but there is very little that needs to change for something like the 12z euro from yesterday. We're still right in the pocket for that type of solution. It's looking less and less likely that we fail completely. If anything, our area is probably in the best best spot for this one. I'm feeling pretty good right now. Sorry Ji and EJ though... 2-4". Reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Blending all guidance still locks us in for at least a 2-4" event. My head is agreeing with having a light event but there is very little that needs to change for something like the 12z euro from yesterday. We're still right in the pocket for that type of solution. It's looking less and less likely that we fail completely. If anything, our area is probably in the best best spot for this one. I'm feeling pretty good right now. Sorry Ji and EJ though... Well said. I like the Euro evolution much more than the GFS even if the result ends up being about the same. I'd like to see the GFS go that way in the next few runs. WAA snow > waiting for a coastal CCB to possibly form. But with the Euro looking pretty stable and being inside 96 hours, pretty easy to hug the Euro and move on with life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: 2-4". Reasonable Yea, my fail bar would be the majority of the region not getting at least 2" out of this. Certainly still in the realm but it's been rare when southern stream precip events dry out in the short range. That general trend has been going on for many months and should be in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 May bar is 3 to 5. I think it’s going to happen. Even 2-4 works for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, my fail bar would be the majority of the region not getting at least 2" out of this. Certainly still in the realm but it's been rare when southern stream precip events dry out in the short range. That general trend has been going on for many months and should be in our favor. And did someone mention the southern stream sometimes starts comes in wetter in the last 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: May bar is 3 to 5. I think it’s going to happen. Even 2-4 works for me. and you shouldn't have temp issues even in the city...many if not all of us should be GTG for mid levels...not often that happens...almost never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 36 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro 96hrs is where I got the Miller B idea from. It MIGHT be a hybrid but really it's just a west to east system that jumps the mountains...they all do that. Technically they all jump as pressure areas redevelop and translate but don't move uniformly the way most think, but they are always going to "jump" over terrain features like that when there is some CAD and resistance. But that alone does't make it a miller b. 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I was comparing to 0z. QPF is less with 12z but not by much. The notable differences are no jackpot in VA and more snow in PA/north. Could be noise. I didn't see a significant trend in the upper levels in general. The euro put more emphasis on the northern stream and washed out the southern stream system more, better to the north worse to the south 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro *just* misses the phase with the northern stream energy. Wouldn't be surprised if some EPS members do that and have an I-95 coastal special from DC-BOS. It was odd in that the euro was much better initially, it had by far the best look out west with a sharper trough and more consolidated system coming east...but then it just washed it out into the confluence. It really didn't want to amplify again on the east coast. If you took the start of the euro and combined it with what the gfs is doing with the trough later you would end up with a big storm, but I do wonder if the euro isnt sniffing out the hostile flow in the east better. EPS will be telling shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: May bar is 3 to 5. I think it’s going to happen. Even 2-4 works for me. This one appears to have some special appeal to it. Yea, totals might not be huge but light snow for 30 hours straight with temps below freezing is not typical around here at all. Part of the fun with events for me is just watching snow fall and walking around with the dog. Should get a lot of that in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And did someone mention the southern stream sometimes starts comes in wetter in the last 48 hours? yeah only about 10 times so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Euro is basically a MECS.. closed low in KY has moved south 96-120 while the low is offshore. It will change next run to probably a more strung out solution. This look at 4-5 days out is perfect.. but there's a Low in the Hudson Bay so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, TSG said: yeah only about 10 times so far. Look, I wasn't trying to be redundant...I guess I'll clarify my the intent of my question: Does that theory actually have merit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Sorry I missed the 12z Euro fun. Damn Costco list left by my wife was absurd. Lol. Anyway—it looks good to me. I’m all in (knowing a KU is potentially on the table down the road). What kind of start time are we looking at? Saturday afternoon / night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Sorry I missed the 12z Euro fun. Damn Costco list left by my wife was absurd. Lol. Anyway—it looks good to me. I’m all in (knowing a KU is potentially on the table down the road). What kind of start time are we looking at? Saturday afternoon / night? Looks like a Saturday evening start, although Euro is the earliest with a start in mid afternoon. But it's basically 24-30 hours of light snow. But we don't lose a flake given the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Beachin said: 12z JMA Praying for temps to hold below. Dew point looks to be about 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 EPS mean looks really, really good. Approaching 5" at DCA at 12z Monday. Some big hits in the mix. not a single shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like a Saturday evening start, although Euro is the earliest with a start in mid afternoon. But it's basically 24-30 hours of light snow. But we don't lose a flake given the temps. Sat evening start time is ideal. Cowboys divisional playoff game on TV and snow falling at night....last time that happened was Jan 7, 1996. Hmmm....wasn't that an analog yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: EPS mean looks really, really good. Approaching 5" at DCA at 12z Monday. Some big hits in the mix. Was just going to post the same thing. Really strong consensus of our area being in the center of attention regardless of how much qpf falls. Good run. More snow to the NE in NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Yea, great EPS run. Almost no solutions give us less than 2". Some classic MA stripes in there too. It's getting real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Was just going to post the same thing. Really strong consensus of our area being in the center of attention regardless of how much qpf falls. Good run. More snow to the NE in NJ as well. Yeah, I guess the only negative to mention is there aren't any classic Miller A megalopolis-slammers members in the mix. That high-end solution might be out. Plenty of good storms for just the MA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, I guess the only negative to mention is there aren't any classic Miller A megalopolis-slammers members in the mix. That high-end solution might be out. The hp to the north means business. Universal agreement on the ops so not surprised. I'm loving the run though. Very strong case for a good event here. Euro op is on the lower end of the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, I guess the only negative to mention is there aren't any classic Miller A megalopolis-slammers members in the mix. That high-end solution might be out. Plenty of good storms for just the MA though. I'll shed a tear for Bahstan while I'm shoveling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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