mappy Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: You think its worse than "We take" or (mostly yoda): modelx looks tasty? (cringe) its up there with "we take" as that still makes no sense to me. no one has told me where we are taking digital snow. the whole atmospheric memory was funny, last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: yup, was just thinking about this. I'd rather go back to a juiced up WAA overrunning with a primary low in KY that transfers to the coast. GGEM is more like this with about the same result given a weaker CCB from the coastal. me too but nothing comes easy, this can still work IF even for me IF the system is slightly more amplified but that's too many if's for my liking. Would rather go back to the easy can't miss idea of a WAA thump into a cold high and not be worrying about phasing and perfect track and all that jazz...definitely like the chances down your way better than up here ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: my only fear for those of us north of DC...this could be evolving into an all or nothing setup. The coastal idea ups the ante BUT it could also rob the WAA and dynamics from the initial wave (or that could ride north of us) and then the coastal could be mostly a miss for places NW of 95. That would be the doomsday scenario here. Of course at this range its equally likely the coastal ends up slightly more amplified and is a hit for all. I guess it depends on if your a glass half empty/full kinda person. But this setup is higher risk reward. Yeah that snow map FWIW is no friend to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: So is this turning into a Miller B? no it's a miller a but if it develops too late it could miss areas up here thats all. The storms that missed us to the southeast the last 2 Januarys were miller a storms. Not every miller a becomes a HECS for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You think its worse than "We take" or (mostly yoda): modelx looks tasty? (cringe) can we add "abscond" to the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, mappy said: its up there with "we take" as that still makes no sense to me. no one has told me where we are taking digital snow. the whole atmospheric memory was funny, last winter. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: my only fear for those of us north of DC...this could be evolving into an all or nothing setup. The coastal idea ups the ante BUT it could also rob the WAA and dynamics from the initial wave (or that could ride north of us) and then the coastal could be mostly a miss for places NW of 95. That would be the doomsday scenario here. Of course at this range its equally likely the coastal ends up slightly more amplified and is a hit for all. I guess it depends on if your a glass half empty/full kinda person. But this setup is higher risk reward. I like the go big scenario but I agree that we could end up watching the coastal miss us to the east, which would be agonizing after last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 CMC is also a nudge NW with the QPF. So far the 12z suite is unanimous with 3-4 inches falling in DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: no it's a miller a but if it develops too late it could miss areas up here thats all. The storms that missed us to the southeast the last 2 Januarys were miller a storms. Not every miller a becomes a HECS for us. And looking at the GFS you can see a little bit of the potential for some of the analogs you mentioned yesterday. Going to be quite a ride over the next few days for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 FV3 is insistent in sending the WAA into PA. Better temps on the 12z run however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: me too but nothing comes easy, this can still work IF even for me IF the system is slightly more amplified but that's too many if's for my liking. Would rather go back to the easy can't miss idea of a WAA thump into a cold high and not be worrying about phasing and perfect track and all that jazz...definitely like the chances down your way better than up here ATT. so dont you think that IF the HP scoots that we can get a northerly correction and keep the advection out in front? I realize its a tit for tat scenario, but as we've been seeing the elongated structure, I'd just think that if that were to happen, while losing some forcing, we still have enough for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: no it's a miller a but if it develops too late it could miss areas up here thats all. The storms that missed us to the southeast the last 2 Januarys were miller a storms. Not every miller a becomes a HECS for us. Looks Miller b or hybrid to me with a triple point and forced to redevelop around that strong HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: CMC is also a nudge NW with the QPF. So far the 12z suite is unanimous with 3-4 inches falling in DC proper. happy for you guys...hope it holds. I'm a couple storms away from seeing my own....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: FV3 is insistent in sending the WAA into PA. Better temps on the 12z run however. It's caving to other guidance. Figured as much. The amped to the west idea was an island. That said, it's a good run. All snow and decent QPF. Looks like around .50 for majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yeah that snow map FWIW is no friend to me. Yea we are one happy family but unfortunately there are kind of two climos in here. The nw 1/3 of this forum would much prefer the idea from a couple days ago of a storm coming up to our west into the TN Valley and a big WAA thump. The coastal idea can work here too but it can also be a total fail as we have experienced lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: can we add "abscond" to the list We absquatulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea we are one happy family but unfortunately there are kind of two climos in here. The nw 1/3 of this forum would much prefer the idea from a couple days ago of a storm coming up to our west into the TN Valley and a big WAA thump. The coastal idea can work here too but it can also be a total fail as we have experienced lately. Just hug the Fv3 and move on. It has the qpf jack over you and we ALL know that's the most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Scraff said: We absquatulate? not even looking it up..... sounds kinky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Just hug the Fv3 and move on. It has the qpf jack over you and we ALL know that's the most likely scenario are you talkin 12z? Yo no can seeo (spanglish) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: are you talkin 12z? Yo no can seeo (spanglish) All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All snow wow. Yeah that's the one to hug (for now). Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All snow For all Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All snow And if we can get 10:1 or even 12:1? I’d lock it up now and hide the key...well until Chuck finds it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Hyphnx said: For all Mid Atlantic? Mix line actually makes it up to EZF. Not all snow south of there. But it's the Fv3 so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: And if we can get 10:1 or even 12:1? I’d lock it up now and hide the key...well until Chuck finds it anyway. I did a way-too-early look at GFS soundings. Lift is obviously not strong given the weak low and lack of strong frontogenesis, but there's a deep dendrite growth layer throughout the storm. Should be good for nice ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: All snow That is way south and less amped compared to all of its previous runs. But still nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 29 minutes ago, yoda said: Violently agree. 2-4 would be great overall. I like the 12z runs so far. Very nice please stop saying that. 2-4 is not great when the model shows 15 inches 100 miles south of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Just hug the Fv3 and move on. It has the qpf jack over you and we ALL know that's the most likely scenario I'm not hugging anything. Way too many moving parts, especially if this comes out in pieces. It's likely we still have more twists and turns to go. But I like simple and this is complicated. Complicated often ends up without snow on my lawn. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowdude said: That is way south and less amped compared to all of its previous runs. But still nice. It was way out there with the amped up runner. Less spread now. I'm not sure I like the Fv3 at this point. Old GFS seems to be better overall but too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 I agree with JI. 2-4 is fine for a clipper, but I'd expect more from a Miller B with a 1040 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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