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Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours.  Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch.  
Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened
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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:
Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours.  Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch.  

Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened

I bet plenty shut us out now

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Heres 6 hours earlier.  SW strength obviously weaker . Doesn't consolidate and you get the 6z result....a strungout solution
gfs_z500_vort_us_15.png&key=eebd4833ce6e160aefeb97edfd083b6db22be691b425630b93f8abb23c5ef0be
gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png&key=685a6576067a8c9ba38665b3f1b97bb349cb749d8681f3459691f7e564aee209
The ne confluence imo doesn't have much of an effect here. We need a decent strength sw and we are good .
Ya looks bad. Even icon gave us more. We need a comprise of 6z fv3 and gfs
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There seems to be a general trend across guidance to a weaker, more diffuse system as it heads east. and this is likely (mostly) due to the confluence up north. It looks like the models are beginning to come to a general consensus though on a light or low end moderate event, something like 2-4", possibly some places seeing 5-6. I am good with that. Lets just hope the wave doesn't end up completely squashed/crushed south as it moves east in future runs. (I will toss the 6z GFS for now lol).

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29 minutes ago, Ji said:
33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:
You set your bar too high too early man....tonight should be bar setting time...maybe

We have been trending down since 18z. Congrats showmesnow.

At 4+ days maybe hold off on the congrats?

Despite what the latest run shows I did see positive move where we need to see it. NS is departing a little quicker then previous runs as can be seen up around NE. Get that feature out of the way quickly enough and let the southern low do its own thing and I think we could score a somewhat modest 2-4, 3-6 inch type deal. Let's see if we see a trend to move that out quicker on future runs.

eta: Should add. We do need to see a fairly strong low running to our south. Not some weak POS.

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At 4+ days maybe hold off on the congrats?
Despite what the latest run shows I did see positive move where we need to see it. NS is departing a little quicker then previous runs as can be seen up around NE. Get that feature out of the way quickly enough and let the southern low do its own thing and I think we could score a somewhat modest 2-4, 3-6 inch type deal. Let's see if we see a trend to move that out quicker on future runs.
eta: Should add. We do need to see a fairly strong low running to our south. Not some weak POS.
Your jan 20 storm looks good on gfs. Euro gave us .5 for the weekend storm so there is still hope
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Just now, Ji said:
8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:
At 4+ days maybe hold off on the congrats?
Despite what the latest run shows I did see positive move where we need to see it. NS is departing a little quicker then previous runs as can be seen up around NE. Get that feature out of the way quickly enough and let the southern low do its own thing and I think we could score a somewhat modest 2-4, 3-6 inch type deal. Let's see if we see a trend to move that out quicker on future runs.
eta: Should add. We do need to see a fairly strong low running to our south. Not some weak POS.

Your jan 20 storm looks good on gfs. Euro gave us .5 for the weekend storm so there is still hope

Pretty much hanging my hat on that one however that times out through Jan 20-22th. Think that storm has a lot of high end potential and nothing I have seen to this point has dissuaded me from that. But at 10+ days let's see where the models take us.

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The latest from LWX:

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong/cold high pressure to the north and developing low pressure
to the south near the Gulf Coast may spell trouble for the Mid-
Atlantic this weekend. 500 hPa pattern is a little convoluted. A
ridge over the western CONUS will be in a favorable place (anchored
near 120 W which usually results in downstream trough amplification
and coastal low track close enough to the Mid-Atlantic to bring
substantial precipitation), but the ridge will be undercut by an
incoming trough over southern CA. To what extent the ridge is
diluted remains in question and is arguably the biggest single
cause of spread in the latest guidance, but virtually everything now
shows measurable snowfall across most of the area.

Due to the more drawn out mid/upper height pattern (as opposed to a
compact and deepening upper low approaching the coast),
precipitation may ultimately be in an extended/lighter form, with
the best chance for any heavier rates possibly coming Sunday morning
(subject to change at this time range, of course).

After the system exits, troughing will linger over New England with
northwest flow keeping temperatures on the colder side through the
middle part of next week.
 

The current forecast for DCA:

Saturday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

 

 

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Other forecasts:

The Blue Ridge near I-66:

Saturday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
Fredericksburg:
Saturday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Sunday
A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
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GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast.

eta: still quite a few nice hits in the mix but we are seeing a move to shift them south run over run. Roughly half the members now show and inch or two or less through the general DC/Balt region and north and west.

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6z gfs 4 days out and Ji is crying that it won’t snow. Hahaha give me a break man. I’ve never seen so many people live and die by each model run on every single model. 

The pattern is RIPE for a storm. The ingredients are all there and we’ve made major improvements at h5 since 2 nights ago. Things are going in the right direction in a big way. 

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast.

We will continue to see things waffle between now and tomorrow night. 00z Thursday night we will really begin to hone in on a consensus. 6z gets far less data, and the GFS particularly is almost always not amped enough versus the 00z run from the night before.  How many times have we said “oh look 6z gfs takes away storm” just to see it come back on the 12z? 

 

Lets breathe guys. 

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21 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast.

eta: still quite a few nice hits in the mix but we are seeing a move to shift them south run over run. Roughly half the members now show and inch or two or less through the general DC/Balt region and north and west.

So as novices we sit here and look at the ensemble runs from yesterday and see gobs and gobs of snow and now those same ensembles show the above. Raisins in cookies that look like chocolate chips or a trainer that says one more rep then adds another and ensemble runs are why I have trust problems

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Just so we(mods and volunteers) don't hear a ton of crap about making a STORM MODE thread that then kills any storm, if you don't want that today then lets please keep posts on topic and NOT lose your shiit over any one model run.

 

Thanks, 

The furloughed and not furloughed staff.

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1 hour ago, Ji said:
1 hour ago, DCTeacherman said:
Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours.  Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch.  

Ensembles are pretty much useless. None shut us out but this is exactly what happened

Ncep is aware the gefs aren't dispersive enough.  Hopefully they fix it soon. 

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42 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

GEFS did back off with the snowfall means especially north of DC. Looking at the snowfall distribution we have the signature of a storm that slides to our south and runs OTS vs. the 00Z that had the look of a storm amplifying and running up the coast.

eta: still quite a few nice hits in the mix but we are seeing a move to shift them south run over run. Roughly half the members now show and inch or two or less through the general DC/Balt region and north and west.

Agree...EURO shows strung out look and GEFS ratifies.  Still, light accumulating snow for most in our sub-forum with a possible six weeks of opportunities in the pipeline.  For the 1/13  - 1/14 DEC PIC storm, we can expect multiple DEC PICS of 1" to 3".

GEFS:

 

 

gefs.jpg

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