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I see potential for this to deepen rapidly near or just east of ORF. The offshore SST values have a +5 anomaly (recent reports of 24 C) as far north as 38 N. Energy rotating around a system not programmed into models will peak around 13th 12z and I think this will happen near ORF. Models have probably diagnosed 50% of this energy as it has roughly a six-day life cycle. Looking at Euro, despite good potential on that model, surface pressures are currently 5 mb higher in central Yukon and this suggests to me that slug of cold air at west end of linked ridge will be very suppressive, meaning that hangback will be squeezed into banding structure dragged along behind bombing offshore low. GFS seems on a good track, GEM has lost the plot with that southward shift of the primary which I think does not fit the uppers very well; the earlier GEM is therefore preferable. 

This could all add up to 10-15" snowfall event for your region. Mild air flowing off Atlantic north of primary will probably tighten the frontal bands and reposition the heaviest QPF closer to DCA-BWI than now shown on consensus guidance. Arctic front likely to be just south of Potomac estuary to Ocean City MD. 

Admittedly, system has a long way to go to develop from modest origins, it is almost detached from Pacific low already (cloud streaks west of Baja) and various things could go wrong, but if the models are on the right track, then I only see upside potential as that energy peak rotates into prime position on Sunday early morning. 

Northern extent of snow for other forums looking in, I would say roughly ABE-ALB-BGR but with some patchy 1-3" amounts further north from phasing subarctic vorticity. 

 

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Do you mean SSTs day after departure? I don't see any forecasts of them but would they not likely fall gradually with the wind more northerly? 

I am using the CMC map as the NOAA maps are disabled due to the government shutdown. The reading east of ACY is unusually high, trending to more normal near HAT and colder than average well out into the Gulf stream off NC-SC. In other words, best cyclogenesis potential is east of the Delmarva. 

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24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I see potential for this to deepen rapidly near or just east of ORF. The offshore SST values have a +5 anomaly (recent reports of 24 C) as far north as 38 N. Energy rotating around a system not programmed into models will peak around 13th 12z and I think this will happen near ORF. Models have probably diagnosed 50% of this energy as it has roughly a six-day life cycle. Looking at Euro, despite good potential on that model, surface pressures are currently 5 mb higher in central Yukon and this suggests to me that slug of cold air at west end of linked ridge will be very suppressive, meaning that hangback will be squeezed into banding structure dragged along behind bombing offshore low. GFS seems on a good track, GEM has lost the plot with that southward shift of the primary which I think does not fit the uppers very well; the earlier GEM is therefore preferable. 

This could all add up to 10-15" snowfall event for your region. Mild air flowing off Atlantic north of primary will probably tighten the frontal bands and reposition the heaviest QPF closer to DCA-BWI than now shown on consensus guidance. Arctic front likely to be just south of Potomac estuary to Ocean City MD. 

Admittedly, system has a long way to go to develop from modest origins, it is almost detached from Pacific low already (cloud streaks west of Baja) and various things could go wrong, but if the models are on the right track, then I only see upside potential as that energy peak rotates into prime position on Sunday early morning. 

Northern extent of snow for other forums looking in, I would say roughly ABE-ALB-BGR but with some patchy 1-3" amounts further north from phasing subarctic vorticity. 

 

Agreed.

Mid Atlantic is going to get clocked but good by snow.

I really should fly into IAD for a few days. I could try to jebwalk along Rt 9. Or, check into the Turf motel near CharlesTown and conduct jebwalks at Hollywood Slots at CharlesTown Races. If DCA gets 10-15, CharlesTown will get 15-22.

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8 hours ago, Ji said:

the one storm @showmethesnow was the most down on ha....its like whatever the likes or dislikes, the opposite happens lol

High fiving your fantasy snow already? Oh Ji, you lovable, roller coaster of emotions, model huger you. Think I will just bookmark this comment for Monday after your 6-12 inches fall. :whistle:

* All kidding aside, I am rooting for you all. Hope you get hammered.

 

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He is only down on it because he will miss it. 

It would be a gut punch for sure. But it wouldn't come close to how I felt missing the 83 storm and especially the Storm of the Century in 93. :weep:

Was too busy yesterday to look over the models and haven't had a chance to as of yet. From some of the comments, we are seeing some of the improvements needed at 500?

 

7 hours ago, BristowWx said:

He is going to Vegas so I think he will be ok.  Unless he blows through his bank roll too fast.  

Best thing about Vegas, you start running low on funds you milk what you have left and get hammered on the free drinks. :drunk:

 

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

GFS can underdo the NW precip shield, but w/ a 1040 HP, I'm not willing to be any @showmethesnow money on it.

You leave my bank roll out of this. I can do a fine job of losing it all myself without any help from the peanut gallery. :lol:

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