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WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

this panel is disappointing. I would think heavier precip

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Problem is by that time the shorwave axis is pointing at 2oclock. Very postive and sheared. Storm has a lot of juice as it approaches so offsets the weaker lift. Very good slp track though. I'll take my chances all day with that.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Please tell me you aren't sitting on the big snowstorm fence with this one? Dude anything from 2-6" is a really good storm all things considered 

psu said all the analogs are hecs so my standard just went to Hecs or bust

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Too early to say we might be seeing our first "goalposts" here in terms of the range of outcomes?

yes but this one hasnt had crazy swings... Overnight tomorrow you will start to see them narrow.  Still time for subtle changes that can make a diff.  Personally, i dont feel comfy until inside 24 unless model consensus is a lock.  We've been fooled enough.  CIPS analogs that PSU just posted should cause some pause.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

yes but this one hasnt had crazy swings... Overnight tomorrow you will start to see them narrow.  Still time for subtle changes that can make a diff.  Personally, i dont feel comfy until inside 24 unless model consensus is a lock.  We've been fooled enough.  CIPS analogs that PSU just posted should cause some pause.

Why?

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Snows out here for almost 50 hours. Yeah. Its not a monster bomb. But 2 days worth of light snow all powder would be a perfect end to this horrid drought.

absolutely.  50 hours of fluff from above that only gets a few inches of accums is a GREAT event.

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