Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Take a look at the mids before assuming it's snow. lol looks good to me unless you live in SE DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can you think of a time where a tall ridge in the west closes off and allows the shortwave to "back into" weakness like that? No and it looked jacked up but I never doubt a new way to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 funny on how as soon as MJO gets to phase 8--we get a snow threat. So MJO is driver/culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Best d7+ GEFS run of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Can't believe I'm even going to bother with the jma but it cuts off too far south and stalls and we are under easterly fetch too long. Adjust it north some and the thermals would be fine. Don't and the precip we get from the initial waa would be over and just snizzle by the time that warm layer invades but the big snow would be central and southwest VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Best d7+ GEFS run of winter. 0z last night was sweet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Can't believe I'm even going to bother with the jma but it cuts off too far south and stalls and we are under easterly fetch too long. Adjust it north some and the thermals would be fine. Don't and the precip we get from the initial waa would be over and just snizzle by the time that warm layer invades but the big snow would be central and southwest VA. Ji said it's all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: 0z last night was sweet too. Damn, I'm slacking. I went to bed and forgot to look this morning. Good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Ji said it's all snow Ji says lots of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, I'm slacking. I went to bed and forgot to look this morning. Good times. For you, Bob: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ji said: looks good to me unless you live in SE DC If JMA is in then "nuff said" I too noticed the undercutting on the closed ridge out west. Seems that lower heights are pushing in quickly on the coat tails of our SW. This is the GFS @108. You can see how the ridge is getting compressed which from a timing perspective effects our system down stream. Specifically, limiting the toughs amplitude to dig and potentially making the whole system more progressive. The current GFS isn't kicking our SW out as quick as the EURO is with its fully closed off ridge solution. I'd like to see better spacing of the two southern stream shortwaves or less amped solution of the trailing SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run we're hoping for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 way better than the run we feared though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run we're hoping for I don’t really fear a weaker solution at this stage in the game. Might be better if the wave stays flatter anyways as to avoid riding the line on how mid-levels perform with an amped scenario. Id gladly take an all snow 27/28 degrees 2-3” event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run we're hoping for 132 it closes of the ridge out west. On a mean that is impressive. Also has a stronger trailing southern stream vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: I don’t really fear a weaker solution at this stage in the game. Might be better if the wave stays flatter anyways as to avoid riding the line on how mid-levels perform with an amped scenario. Id gladly take an all snow 27/28 degrees 2-3” event The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. the euro has never liked the event. The GFS will pull the plug likely now in the next 2-3 runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 As usual at this lead time, its an evolving situation. I saw a bunch of potential in that Euro run. The storm might ultimately be on the weak side, or south, but I would be pretty surprised if it plays out as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 If the gfs has the right idea then it's a pretty big eps fail considering the leads aren't that long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I have a tendency to randomly miss out on the best snows of the season because of previously planned travel. Rough streak. Anyway I’m traveling to San Francisco Jan. 10-15, booked in October and thought “watch I’ll miss the best DC storm of the year.” Enjoy, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs has the right idea then it's a pretty big eps fail considering the leads aren't that long Eps and Euro have failed very close to an event plenty of times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs has the right idea then it's a pretty big eps fail considering the leads aren't that long EPS was a step forward though. Better 500 and surface/coastal low depiction. The nondispersive nature of the ensembles (GEFS and EPS) makes me wonder how well the true probability distribution is being covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. Yea, that part isn’t great for sure. I think you’re right I’d definitely be disappointed if moving forward over next 2-3 days we didnt have some big solutions in the mix. I currently think (could change) that a more modest solution is the most likely. Either way, I’m hoping for a good track on this one. Been bored with this current pattern, sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs has the right idea then it's a pretty big eps fail considering the leads aren't that long Most of us know the chances of the eps failing at such medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Having the Euro holding back energy isnt new for any of us. I dont really remember if it still had that bias after last years upgrade. Either way a couple of inches sure would brighten up this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS was a step forward though. Better 500 and surface/coastal low depiction. The nondispersive nature of the ensembles (GEFS and EPS) makes me wonder how well the true probability distribution is being covered. The Canadian ensemble doesn't look great either. Only 5 / 21 members give me an inch of snow, and it looks like the low is suppressed on the mean. The control is the best member for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, cae said: The Canadian ensemble doesn't look great either. Only 5 / 21 members give me an inch of snow, and it looks like the low is suppressed on the mean. The control is the best member for the region. We start a thread and wheels come off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: We start a thread and wheels come off. Aside from great GFS, FV3, GGEM, and GEFS runs with improvements on the Euro and EPS, I totally agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Aside from great GFS, FV3, GGEM, and GEFS runs with improvements on the Euro and EPS, I totally agree with you. Lol, messing around. If the worst current model run is 1-2” of cold snow from the Euro I would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 What did the extrapolated NAM say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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