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Holy NAM, 18 Euro, EPS and GEFS bat man!!! 4-6” looking likely on these runs, with lollipop 8-10” amounts inland away from DC Baltimore and Richmond. That SW feature is much more pronounced this evening and the suppressive look in Canada has relaxed. That 1040 high in place before the storm is a wet dream come true hahahah

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5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Confluence looks further north and the shortwave looks a little bit stronger on the 18z EPS

915240F6-B5B7-4A86-B8B2-3C59A73C8DEF.png

That is a sweet looking snowstorm map.  Screen saver worthy for those times we forget what the right set up looks like.  

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In terms of QPF, through 144 (end of run) 0.5” line just south of M/D line and sags south over central eastern shore which is north than 12z at 150 hours.  Pretty much the whole forum is in the 4-6” mean snowfall on the SV maps with a few higher lollis over the Northern Neck and west of Richmond (+the mountains but to be expected with upslope this week).  

It’s a good run.

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So hey guys...not going to do storm mode tonight, but we might as well get into the practice....it's time to start cutting down on the banter and useless posts during model discussion.  If we still see things progressing tomm, then Storm Mode at 12z tomm.  Good luck out there.  Oy, NAM comes into range at 12z tomm.  That right there is going to be 487 bad posts.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Lol. NAM drops nearly a foot in MO

I hope it ain't one of those storms where its snowing in pa before our area

Nam looks pretty close to the 18z euro. With the 1040 hp sliding along over the top there's going to be a really tight gradient. Unless it gains too much latitude before getting here, i doubt that the shield will be that far north of the low. I know exactly what you're talking about though. Initial waa slug drifts north and slides into PA for hours before it starts here. This doesnt look like that kind of storm 

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-42 C at Mayo, Yukon where this arctic high is building up (1037 mbs). I like the looks of this set-up, might be worth comparing to Feb 1983 (El Nino winter, arctic high on similar track) as to potential storm dynamics. Nice energy peak at 12z 13th is indicated. Hoping for the best, want to see 00z model runs before speculating about amounts. 

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1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

-42 C at Mayo, Yukon where this arctic high is building up (1037 mbs). I like the looks of this set-up, might be worth comparing to Feb 1983 (El Nino winter, arctic high on similar track) as to potential storm dynamics. Nice energy peak at 12z 13th is indicated. Hoping for the best, want to see 00z model runs before speculating about amounts. 

The most intense storm of my lifetime out here.  32 inches in 16 hours.  

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10 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

We gotta be careful this thing doesn’t get too amped. Not wanting to ride that rain/snow line.

Still 3+ days away. Boston is still in the game. Unfortunately 

 

 

Speak for yourself. I want to see it as amped as it can get. I will take my chances with a 1040 HP in perfect position over the top. 

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14 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

We gotta be careful this thing doesn’t get too amped. Not wanting to ride that rain/snow line.

Still 3+ days away. Boston is still in the game. Unfortunately 

 

 

18z fv3 showed how too amped doesn’t work. 850s hit the mason Dixon and dc went over to rain. 

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