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Just now, Ji said:
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12z

Mixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression

It's a great run. There's just a couple sprinked in that dont give us at least a 2" snowfall. Majority are warning level

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30 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm?

Funny thing is I’m smart to understand it’s tuesday....not Thursday or Friday....therefore the final outcome won’t be known till game time  or clif diving. I’m not claiming to know more then anyone in this forum. Just stating a simple fact that no one in here could probably argue with. Save you’re feelings till Friday.

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31 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm?

It would need to slow down and the QPF would have to increase from what has been advertised.  Also the mids would have to hold in order for the ratios to be maxed.  Tall order for anyone south of the cities in this setup.  This isn’t as depicted a precio bomb nor is the lp that strong.  High level advisory/low level warning is my guess.

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5 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Funny thing is I’m smart to understand it’s tuesday....not Thursday or Friday....therefore the final outcome won’t be known till game time  or clif diving. I’m not claiming to know more then anyone in this forum. Just stating a simple fact that no one in here could probably argue with. Save you’re feelings till Friday.

Did not mean it as a shot at you. I agree we can’t possibly know the outcome yet. 

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41 minutes ago, real said:

That was a bust in the DC proper. It snowed but with UHI it never got cold enough to accumlate much more than an inch or two on grassy surfaces. But no one cared because it was just a few days before the big storm on 2-6-10

Actually, the small 5” wet snow in DC was Feb 2-3 according to a CWG article about Snowmageddon. So Feb 4th in the TN valley should have been the main event that hit us Feb 5th.   

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17 minutes ago, Interstate said:

But we can stop the North and West movement now though.  :)

If hp was running away to the NE i would be very worried. The old cliche of not wanting to be in the bullseye 4+ days out is very true in that scenario. As long as we get precip we're getting some snow with this setup. A 1040 hp due north of the approaching storm is money for the MA.

I agree with Ji's take where if we mix we're likely to get thumped because it means the shortwave is amped up. Fringed is the bigger risk but chances of that seem to be going away every 6 hours. 

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18z Euro only goes to 90 (EPS goes to 144) but wave is more consolidated and there is slightly better ridging in the west.  More consolidated wave causing slightly higher heights ahead of the wave.  Heights are very similar in the NE, maybe a smidge lower over New England.  Overall looks even better than 12z.  EPS should be out soon.

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here is your h5 vort look on 18z compared 12z. Notable stronger southern s/w. Also h5 mslp and hgts. Stronger low, higher hgts out ahead. Also, the area circled for people further north on the 12z run had that jet streak that dove south and compressed the hgt field. This run doesn't have that feature. The hgt field is a tad lower in new england, but without that jet streak it may allow hgts to recover in time for a push north and west more. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

The story this winter has not been for vorts in the SS to shear out which gave me some pause yesterday with the Euro’s depictions.  While it could trend the other way, it seems winter is showing its hand again as we get under 5 days now.

As you mentioned, that was a rather significant improvement on the Euro, and in this case having the Euro at 18z is a great tool to have now.   

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

here is your h5 vort look on 18z compared 12z. Notable stronger southern s/w. Also h5 mslp and hgts. Stronger low, higher hgts out ahead. Also, the area circled for people further north on the 12z run had that jet streak that dove south and compressed the hgt field. This run doesn't have that feature. The hgt field is a tad lower in new england, but without that jet streak it may allow hgts to recover in time for a push north and west more.  

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A little bit of ridging ahead of the storm making a big difference.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Laugh if you want but the 18Z Euro looks like the NAM. It would be a big hit IMO.

Wow, and I know it might have been mentioned,  but it is darn cold too.  

ECM 2 meter temps are cold all the way down to South Carolina on 12ZSat. 

SE Canada is frigid. Imagine once we get additional snow cover to our North, then we run the risk of real arctic cold.  And cold smoke storms of lore. 

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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

here is your h5 vort look on 18z compared 12z. Notable stronger southern s/w. Also h5 mslp and hgts. Stronger low, higher hgts out ahead. Also, the area circled for people further north on the 12z run had that jet streak that dove south and compressed the hgt field. This run doesn't have that feature. The hgt field is a tad lower in new england, but without that jet streak it may allow hgts to recover in time for a push north and west more. 

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The 18z euro is almost as amped as the nam lol

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