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5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Are you saying that the temps here won't be as much as an issue than what the FV3 is showing? Snow seems to hate us across the chessy bay.

Refer to the people that know what they are talking about.. seriously.. I am just weenieing out here..  but from my experience.. watching these things play out over the years.. when you get High Pressure placement like that over SE Canada.. anything 1040+ (and I have seen some runs with 1050+).. it is typically gonna be a cold storm.. and it is the temp and pressure gradient result in more lift.. more dynamics..  more precip.. and if things break right.. you can cash in on high ratios 

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Euro says cold smoke so that is good enough for now.  IP/ZR is fine too. Straight rain would be a kick in the pills.  

It's a real concern even with all these cold runs we're seeing. Back off confluence and amplify the shortwave and something like the fv3 is in the realm. We'll see how it goes over the next 2-3 days before hitting the worry button. Imho- as long as we get good precip we're getting a good event even if there are ptype issues. Antecedent conditions are as good as any other solid event 

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10 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 

Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010?

When I clicked in the TN Valley region the #2 analog date was 2-4-10

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22 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I didn’t mean Boston had a shot. Nor would I care. B)  I just figured it had a touch more room to climb the coast before heading out. 

All good. Hope you guys cash in. You’re sittin pretty for this one.

Maybe next one is for us northerners. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a real concern even with all these cold runs we're seeing. Back off confluence and amplify the shortwave and something like the fv3 is in the realm. We'll see how it goes over the next 2-3 days before hitting the worry button. Imho- as long as we get good precip we're getting a good event even if there are ptype issues. Antecedent conditions are as good as any other solid event 

Right. Will worry when it’s time. Gonna enjoy this for now.  4 days now roughly.  We are zoning in on something 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Both are pretty good analogs. Southern wave running a boundary and enough confluence to abate temp issues and also keep it from running the coast. Cold powder like both of the ones your thinking.

Some of these 30 hours of snow outputs seem unlikely. Very unlikely... pattern is still progressive and h5 doesnt close off. That eliminates long drawn out solutions in my brain but the models show it so we hug

12/9/2018 FTW

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 

Yeah temp issues should be the least of our worries...we just need to get the thing up here as modeled today, lol

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

This morning...the 6z gfs was way suppressed and caved to the suppressed euro and we were hoping for a mercy dusting. Now we are here. We dont know as much as we think

 Unfortunately It’s only Tuesday and I’m not sure anything we have seen thus far will be the actual outcome....good or bad

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8 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

 Unfortunately It’s only Tuesday and I’m not sure anything we have seen thus far will be the actual outcome....good or bad

Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm?

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44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman Fv3 says congrats. It's still a good run everywhere honestly. Temp issues seem pretty meager overall. Verbatim would be snow to mix or zr then back to snow as the storm rolls up the coast. Boston likes the Fv3 also. 

Just one run but the trends today are nice. I think there is a limit to how far northwest this can go given the high on top. Those runs the other day that had a front end thump to dryslot are probably the worse case scenario for a north trend. Of course a miss south still being the worse case but quickly becoming less likely issue to the south. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm?

Greed is a terrible thing...lol

(But really, doesn't look like this is that kind of storm. Even the most bullish solution spit out by the models so far was like 6-8 inches if I'm not mistaken)

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21 minutes ago, Ji said:
27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:
When I clicked in the TN Valley region the #2 analog date was 2-4-10

That was 5 inches of heavy wet warm snow for dc I think

That was a bust in the DC proper. It snowed but with UHI it never got cold enough to accumlate much more than an inch or two on grassy surfaces. But no one cared because it was just a few days before the big storm on 2-6-10

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
We'll know more about this weekend in 2 weeks.

You should go back and read the long range for the comments surrounding this week like 5-15 days ago

I know exactly how bad they were. I made like 400 of them. Reverse weenieology is a real thing and it worked.

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Just now, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12z

Mixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression

Exactly what I was thinking. I don't think either of us have much to worry about, or really anyone N/W of the cities. Probably not in the cities either.

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