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WxUSAF

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Happy Hour no doubt. Seems like a Mid Atlantic Special (for now). I’ll bet a bit more norther trend happens. 

just to be clear i think a slight northerly adjustment is possible, but unless I read it wrong, I'm just not sure how it gets up to Boston.  

It is a very nice (and acceptable) run just as it is.  We rarely luck into events at the start of a new pattern regime, so its a win for many, no matter how MBY does.

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What I like about this run is the temp and pressure gradient over our region.  BWI stays in the mid to upper 20s with 850s running way below zero C throughout the region.. 1040 high parked right where it needs to be with a low pressure along the coast.. that look is Sunday morning... 

If this verifies, there could be a lot boom potential with this storm. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

just to be clear i think a slight northerly adjustment is possible, but unless I read it wrong, I'm just not sure how it gets up to Boston.  

It is a very nice (and acceptable) run just as it is.  We rarely luck into events at the start of a new pattern regime, so its a win for many, no matter how MBY does.

I didn’t mean Boston had a shot. Nor would I care. B)  I just figured it had a touch more room to climb the coast before heading out. 

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I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 
Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010?
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7 minutes ago, schinz said:

If blank, model image not available

gfs_snow_Ku_acc_washdc_27 (1).png

We're due lol. In all seriousness though seeing the precipitation field extend well into PA gives everyone a goog margin for error. This type of system could create some good branding. For those who get into banding they will see the high ratio stuff opposed to sand and needles at 23 degrees taking forever to pile up.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman Fv3 says congrats. It's still a good run everywhere honestly. Temp issues seem pretty meager overall. Verbatim would be snow to mix or zr then back to snow as the storm rolls up the coast. Boston likes the Fv3 also. 

Euro says cold smoke so that is good enough for now.  IP/ZR is fine too. Straight rain would be a kick in the pills.  

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 

Are you saying that the temps here won't be as much as an issue than what the FV3 is showing? Snow seems to hate us across the chessy bay.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 

It looks really cold to me... When you see the 850 line down in the tidewater and precip over running up in to PA..  you know your in business...

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 

Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010?

Both are pretty good analogs. Southern wave running a boundary and enough confluence to abate temp issues and also keep it from running the coast. Cold powder like both of the ones your thinking.

Some of these 30 hours of snow outputs seem unlikely. Very unlikely... pattern is still progressive and h5 doesnt close off. That eliminates long drawn out solutions in my brain but the models show it so we hug

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1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Are you saying that the temps here won't be as much as an issue than what the FV3 is showing? Snow seems to hate us across the chessy bay.

Eastern shore has different climo than my yard. Succeptible to mixing is a common setup. However, a big cold high like that isnt going to just lay down like a pansy. Mix line usually hits when waa precip is mostly done. Anything on the back side of a low is usually snow unless the track is tucked in close. 

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