yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z CMC is still a nice hit... 4-8 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: This is accurate. Truth be told (technically speaking) GFS wise there is no trend. If you were to see a trend it would actually be slight improvements in EPS QPF in past 36 hours. Very slight Ok. I see where you're coming from. But the point that some people are making here is that the ICON, GGEM, and both GFS's had a more amped coastal idea up until this morning. They all backed off from their previous runs today. Maybe some people don't think that's a trend but I kind of do. It's a trend away from a more amped solution... Still a ton of time. Wouldn't be suprised if this thing still has one more major change up it's sleeve before game time....for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I have no clue what the final outcome. Just saying what the consensus is coming around to right now. We still have a chance for major changes. Now we just have a new consensus to work out from. Remember when 12/9 went to the NC/VA border? How'd that end up for areas north of Richmond? Still a ton of time. At this point though, the models are leaning away from a more amped solution. Really good actually, ended up with 6.1" just North of EZF in Southern Stafford......don't think it will be that much this go around, but that storm was decent up to eZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z CMC is still a nice hit... 4-8 for most I'm still waiting for my foot of CMC snow from the December southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, mappy said: I will never ever understand how days in advanced people can be so sure of the outcome based on a model run. Amen! You would think this is a slam dunk until the next model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: You are hopeful that will continue to be sampled. If I was to wager a guess, I'd say that I see at least light snow out of this. All guidance points to that right now. Could the wheels come off? Sure, its the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC is still a nice hit... 4-8 for most It is a nice hit. CMC does this though... it seems to consolidate these southern stream short waves quicker. Not always how it plays out. I feel the GFS/Euro tend to have higher skill in picking up small details a little better. Makes a big difference with these delicate timing scenarios Everyone will be watching 12z euro today thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: If I was to wager a guess, I'd say that I see at least light snow out of this. All guidance points to that right now. Could the wheels come off? Sure, its the mid-atlantic. This. We don't need to be reminded that we fail more than we win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 21 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: H5 pattern is not evolving into one that is favorable for a considerable east coast storm as portrayed over the past couple days. Could it change...yes...will it change back? Not likely. It’s been trending like this all year for us. I agree with all your analysis except this. For the last 3 weeks we have had one perfect track stj system after another inundate us with qpf but there was no cold to work with. So are you basing this off the one threat so far when it was. cold in December? That seems like a small sample. Plus the system wasn't weak or strung out it simply got blocked by an incredibly awful placed lobe of the vortex to our northeast. I agree that this is trending away from an amplified solution but not sure I see a seasonal trend to that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 What i see is some taking one run from any model that has a higher end solution and then holding everything else to that standard. The only trend is that there is an event that can happen. Details yet to come and not one model has it right this far ahead in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Ok. I see where you're coming from. But the point that some people are making here is that the ICON, GGEM, and both GFS's had a more amped coastal idea up until this morning. They all backed off from their previous runs today. Maybe some people don't think that's a trend but I kind of do. It's a trend away from a more amped solution... Still a ton of time. Wouldn't be suprised if this thing still has one more major change up it's sleeve before game time....for the better or worse. I don't disagree with you there. I guess my point was more that the amped solution is absent largely impart to NS and SS interaction and the timing of confluence. Change anyone of those three variables and the amped solutions could make a reappearance. Albeit, your point is probably that it is unlikely those solutions will come back, to which, I would probably have to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I agree with all your analysis except this. For the last 3 weeks we have had one perfect track stj system after another inundate us with qpf but there was no cold to work with. So are you basing this off the one threat so far when it was. cold in December? That seems like a small sample. Plus the system wasn't weak or strung out it simply got blocked by an incredibly awful placed lobe of the vortex to our northeast. I agree that this is trending away from an amplified solution but not sure I see a seasonal trend to that yet. The seasonal trend is we can rain but not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with all your analysis except this. For the last 3 weeks we have had one perfect track stj system after another inundate us with qpf but there was no cold to work with. So are you basing this off the one threat so far when it was. cold in December? That seems like a small sample. Plus the system wasn't weak or strung out it simply got blocked by an incredibly awful placed lobe of the vortex to our northeast. I agree that this is trending away from an amplified solution but not sure I see a seasonal trend to that yet. The seasonal trend is we can rain but not snow Cherish your dusting Sunday like your first born Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Look at the GFS 9-12 day and how it moistened up with todays storm.. the storm will trend wetter now I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree with all your analysis except this. For the last 3 weeks we have had one perfect track stj system after another inundate us with qpf but there was no cold to work with. So are you basing this off the one threat so far when it was. cold in December? That seems like a small sample. Plus the system wasn't weak or strung out it simply got blocked by an incredibly awful placed lobe of the vortex to our northeast. I agree that this is trending away from an amplified solution but not sure I see a seasonal trend to that yet. The seasonal trend is we can rain but not snow We haven't been in a cold enough pattern to realize a seasonal pattern yet. We had 2 legit threats during our previous cold periods Mid November and early Dec with nice systems ejecting from the west into a cold airmass. One hit and one got suppressed. This is now the first such threat since. In between the general storm track has been great just no cold thanks to the pacific pattern. Not sure I am ready to declare what you are implying yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is what drives me nuts about this place at times. Just a few days ago people were hopeful the puke pattern would improve and it was progged for the 13th. A couple model runs showed a glimmer there might be a surprise before then. So we go from this to now a chance of this and you all are complaining? It might be a poof but its not done and over by any means on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, H2O said: What i see is some taking one run from any model that has a higher end solution and then holding everything else to that standard. The only trend is that there is an event that can happen. Details yet to come and not one model has it right this far ahead in time. This!!! a voice of reason! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, H2O said: This is what drives me nuts about this place at times. Just a few days ago people were hopeful the puke pattern would improve and it was progged for the 13th. A couple model runs showed a glimmer there might be a surprise before then. So we go from this to now a chance of this and you all are complaining? It might be a poof but its not done and over by any means on tuesday. Couldn’t have said it better. I’m happy that it’s going to snow maybe. 2-4” at the low end. Sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, H2O said: This is what drives me nuts about this place at times. Just a few days ago people were hopeful the puke pattern would improve and it was progged for the 13th. A couple model runs showed a glimmer there might be a surprise before then. So we go from this to now a chance of this and you all are complaining? It might be a poof but its not done and over by any means on tuesday. Plus the GEFS ensemble mean has shifted north and has 0,25" line on the city during on period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Couldn’t have said it better. I’m happy that it’s going to snow maybe. 2-4” at the low end. Sold. Might be the high end by the end of today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, usedtobe said: Plus the GEFS ensemble mean has shifted north and has 0,25" line on the city during on period. My favorite Junker of the infamous Junker clan. My man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, PivotPoint said: Might be the high end by the end of today's runs Fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Fine with me. I'd gladly take that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 14 minutes ago, H2O said: This is what drives me nuts about this place at times. Just a few days ago people were hopeful the puke pattern would improve and it was progged for the 13th. A couple model runs showed a glimmer there might be a surprise before then. The loudest voice in the room rarely belongs to the smartest mind. PSU is the exception here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Acceptable panel and nice jump from 6z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Acceptable panel and nice jump from 6z... stormvista has us in 6-8 on its snow product. Wont' get excited until the Euro trends north. The 06Z looked encouraging at its end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, usedtobe said: stormvista has us in 6-8 on its snow product. Wont' get excited until the Euro trends north. The 06Z looked encouraging at its end. Yea, euro has been stubborn with the weak/sheared solution. I like PSU's logic that all southern waves have carried juice this year. Most wasted with rainfall but the seasonal trend has not been for weak/washed out light QPF events. We're all pretty much beggars at this point in the season so any snow will be good snow. It's been a rough first 5-6 weeks of met winter in these parts (and many parts of the conus). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, usedtobe said: stormvista has us in 6-8 on its snow product. Wont' get excited until the Euro trends north. The 06Z looked encouraging at its end. Certainly a bit early to be hanging our hats on OP runs of any model. The ensembles are still hinting at a decent event. That GEFS run is very encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12z GEFS snowfall mean is 6" at DCA through 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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