January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just haven't liked the timing nor the placement of the NS as the system runs to our south. Though something could time up it is extremely hard to do. More then likely that setup argues for the NS interfering more then anything else. So while I pretty strongly believe this will be a minor event at best I wouldn't be shocked if in fact you all rolled a seven and get hammered. 

eta: In other words, I would definitely still keep an eye on things.

Regardless, have a great trip. Hope you win big out there...and bring home that winning karma with you. Fingers crossed. You deserve it for all the great daily input you provide us in here. 

[jayyy]

Lmao! Dark Sky must solely rely on the GFS. It has 8-13” of snow with heavy snow almost all day for Sunday for the Ellicott City area. #pipedream #DamnYouNS

[BristowWx]

45 minutes ago, Interstate said:

FV3 is unreliable according to the NWS though. 

We all know know never to bet against Euro when it shiows less snow than the others.  Still some light snow seems to be in the cards for now so I guess that will do. 6z almost took that away for half of us.  

[showmethesnow]

Just thought I would throw this out there from the weenie handbook for all the weenies to hang their hat on. What we are seeing with the weaker southern sliders solutions does play into each models bias somewhat, though for different reasons. Euro has a habit of not handling energy in the SW well sometimes delaying it and/or splitting it. A little stronger low coming out and/or a little quicker and we probably see a much better outcome with the Euro. Same with the GFS which has a habit of overplaying the NS. Dampen that down somewhat and we probably see a much better outcome then just shown. Hope that all tides you over to the next disastrous run. 

[CAPE]

52 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Think you already know my stance. Been going with the weak, suppressed southern slider ala Euro for awhile now. Just too many concerns at this time with the NS. Could something time up or we see a better 500 setup? Sure, that is why we are seeing some of these great solutions. I just think with what I am seeing that the odds are stacked somewhat heavily against that at this time. I am rooting for you all nonetheless. Even if it would cause me great pain to be reading about a foot or more in my BY while I am in Vegas. 

Most likely NC to central VA will be heading towards 20" for the winter, before my yard sees it's first inch, lol. Patience.  

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

That’s because it’s usually right.

Well yeah. People can have whatever opinion they want, but it is a superior model.

[Quasievil]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Most likely NC to central VA will be heading towards 20" for the winter, before my yard sees it's first inch, lol. Patience.  

Yeah, it's difficult to watch.

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well yeah. People can have whatever opinion they want, but it is a superior model.

Stay strong bro

[WxUSAF]

6z op GFS is bad solely because the northern stream s/w is out ahead of the storm and acts to suppress it rather than behind it where it amplifies it.  6z FV3 is still behind the storm and that's why it's still a major hit.  

Hard to ignore the Euro being so consistent though, especially when there are more reasons than usual to suspect the GFS.  Still, I can't recall seeing a broad area of precipitation in IL/KY/IN that just evaporates when it gets to us if it's supported by a southern stream s/w and low pressure.  

[Wonderdog]

I'll take the FV-3 and call it a night. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

6z op GFS is bad solely because the northern stream s/w is out ahead of the storm and acts to suppress it rather than behind it where it amplifies it.  6z FV3 is still behind the storm and that's why it's still a major hit.  

Hard to ignore the Euro being so consistent though, especially when there are more reasons than usual to suspect the GFS.  Still, I can't recall seeing a broad area of precipitation in IL/KY/IN that just evaporates when it gets to us if it's supported by a southern stream s/w and low pressure.  

From my recollection in these instances and without any govt shutdown, implying the gfs is jacked up at this point, GFS usually scores in this setup over the Euro. This may be a whole different ballgame we’re dealing with because of said GFS problems but obviously we’re going to figure out very soon who scores the coup. The Euro did pretty crappy when I got nailed with the 12/9 storm so there’s that as well.

[nj2va]

I’m setting my expectations at less than an 1”. Seems reasonable. 

[smokeybandit]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

I’m setting my expectations at less than an 1”. Seems reasonable. 

That's like going to your senior prom and hoping to get a kiss on the cheek.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

That's like going to your senior prom and hoping to get a kiss on the cheek.

Better than a slap across the face 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I’m setting my expectations at less than an 1”. Seems reasonable. 

I would gladly take a 1-2" event at this point. As bleak as things looked a week or so ago, the pre-15th period is bonus if it produces even something modest.

[Negnao]

11 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

From my recollection in these instances and without any govt shutdown, implying the gfs is jacked up at this point, GFS usually scores in this setup over the Euro. This may be a whole different ballgame we’re dealing with because of said GFS problems but obviously we’re going to figure out very soon who scores the coup. The Euro did pretty crappy when I got nailed with the 12/9 storm so there’s that as well.

6z gfs isn’t that different than the euro. It still works out for you guys in the southeastern sub forum but doesn’t look great for the mid Atlantic right now. 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, Negnao said:

6z gfs isn’t that different than the euro. It still works out for you guys in the southeastern sub forum but doesn’t look great for the mid Atlantic right now. 

LWX seems to think some accumulating snow is possible, even if not warning level criteria. not sure what your definition of "great" is, but the area hasn't seen snow in almost 2 months, I think most would take even just a dusting at this point. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

6z op GFS is bad solely because the northern stream s/w is out ahead of the storm and acts to suppress it rather than behind it where it amplifies it.  6z FV3 is still behind the storm and that's why it's still a major hit.  

Hard to ignore the Euro being so consistent though, especially when there are more reasons than usual to suspect the GFS.  Still, I can't recall seeing a broad area of precipitation in IL/KY/IN that just evaporates when it gets to us if it's supported by a southern stream s/w and low pressure.  

Yeah, disconcerting that the Euro is still so suppressed while the GFS has gone a bit back-and-forth.  If there were a trend or change in that to something even approaching what last night's 00Z GFS/GFS-FV3 showed (and even the CMC), that would help.  But you cannot ignore the signal in the Euro and then the 06Z GFS kind of following suit.  I haven't seen precip maps from the Euro, but that is interesting what you mention about it "evaporating" precip over the midwest before it gets here like that.

[Negnao]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX seems to think some accumulating snow is possible, even if not warning level criteria. not sure what your definition of "great" is, but the area hasn't seen snow in almost 2 months, I think most would take even just a dusting at this point. 

I don’t think most would take a dusting. Of course accumulating snow and even a warning level event is still possible.  

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

I don’t think most would take a dusting. Of course accumulating snow and even a warning level event is still possible.  

lol ok

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX seems to think some accumulating snow is possible, even if not warning level criteria. not sure what your definition of "great" is, but the area hasn't seen snow in almost 2 months, I think most would take even just a dusting at this point. 

Yeah, dusting to an inch on some cold surfaces would be fine.  Anything to get us on the board for now.  

[snowmagnet]

Something I started noticing back in ‘13-‘14 and then in ‘14-‘15, was that the Euro had a tendency to sniff out storms in the long range, lose them in the medium, and pick them back up in the short range. Just a casual observation. 

[PDIII]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

Something I started noticing back in ‘13-‘14 and then in ‘14-‘15, was that the Euro had a tendency to sniff out storms in the long range, lose them in the medium, and pick them back up in the short range. Just a casual observation. 

Yup.  I agree with this completely.  It happens every storm. Like clockwork.  By this time Thursday we will be looking at a warning level event area wide.  

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

.  But you cannot ignore the signal in the Euro and then the 06Z GFS kind of following suit.  I haven't seen precip maps from the Euro, but that is interesting what you mention about it "evaporating" precip over the midwest before it gets here like that.

Euro has been about 0.5-1.5” for most of us the last couple runs. More on the west slopes of the ridges and farther south.

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Yup.  I agree with this completely.  It happens every storm. Like clockwork.  By this time Thursday we will be looking at a warning level event area wide.  

Or will be preparing ourselves to stare at the  southern sky all weekend. You know, trying to see what animal shapes we see in the passing clouds? Make it a picnic day! 

[MD Snow]

Did the EPS improve at all or was everything still suppressed/weak? 

[frd]

28 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Something I started noticing back in ‘13-‘14 and then in ‘14-‘15, was that the Euro had a tendency to sniff out storms in the long range, lose them in the medium, and pick them back up in the short range. Just a casual observation. 

Not sure about this happening, in this range I believe the Euro has the highest skill scores, a non event is a much higher likelyhood. 

The Ukmet does not look great either, and the flow is too fast.  Things could change, but a lot of flux and just not seeing it come together.   

 

[CAPE]

Snippet from WPC EFD, fwiw..

By day 5 (Sun), models have trended a bit toward a more phased solution with a more amplified trough across the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and a somewhat less suppressed low track along the Eastern Seaboard relative to this time last night. At this time the GFS along with the CMC continue to show the farthest west low track along the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coast on Sun, with the ECMWF and UKMET approximately 100 miles farther south/east. The GFS remains on the western fringe of the ensemble distribution, while the ECENS/GEFS/NAEFS ensemble means are much closer to something along the lines of the ECMWF/UKMET. Farther west, additional amplified energy approaches the West coast by Sun, with a trend a slower/deeper solution with this feature, or perhaps even cutting the system off west of California through early next week. Continued variability among solutions and the complex nature of the phasing process with the eastern system reduces confidence in any particular deterministic solution. Thus, from day 5 onward substantially increased weight was placed toward the ECENS and GEFS ensemble means.

Cold air to the north of the system could result in areas if wintry precipitation across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Fri and across areas from the Ohio Valley to the southern/central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic by Sat-Sun. The northern extent of winter weather potential Sat-Sun across the Mid-Atlantic region remains highly uncertain given the factors described above. As the system tracks northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean Sun-Mon, New England may face a threat for winter weather but this will again hinge largely on the eventual track of the system and how close it remains to the coastline.

[CAPE]

42 minutes ago, Negnao said:

I don’t think most would take a dusting. Of course accumulating snow and even a warning level event is still possible.  

I refuse the dusting. Rejected!

[Chris78]

There was only a handful of shutouts on the Eps.  Most were in the .5 - 2" range. Only a handful that had 4" plus. Pretty good agreement for a light event.