Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:25 PM, Ji said: On 1/8/2019 at 11:20 PM, Bob Chill said: Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12z Expand Mixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression Expand It's a great run. There's just a couple sprinked in that dont give us at least a 2" snowfall. Majority are warning level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:02 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm? Expand Funny thing is I’m smart to understand it’s tuesday....not Thursday or Friday....therefore the final outcome won’t be known till game time or clif diving. I’m not claiming to know more then anyone in this forum. Just stating a simple fact that no one in here could probably argue with. Save you’re feelings till Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:02 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm? Expand It would need to slow down and the QPF would have to increase from what has been advertised. Also the mids would have to hold in order for the ratios to be maxed. Tall order for anyone south of the cities in this setup. This isn’t as depicted a precio bomb nor is the lp that strong. High level advisory/low level warning is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:13 PM, WhiteoutMD said: The late day EURO comes out when? . Expand just started right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:32 PM, jewell2188 said: Funny thing is I’m smart to understand it’s tuesday....not Thursday or Friday....therefore the final outcome won’t be known till game time or clif diving. I’m not claiming to know more then anyone in this forum. Just stating a simple fact that no one in here could probably argue with. Save you’re feelings till Friday. Expand Did not mean it as a shot at you. I agree we can’t possibly know the outcome yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:08 PM, real said: That was a bust in the DC proper. It snowed but with UHI it never got cold enough to accumlate much more than an inch or two on grassy surfaces. But no one cared because it was just a few days before the big storm on 2-6-10 Expand Actually, the small 5” wet snow in DC was Feb 2-3 according to a CWG article about Snowmageddon. So Feb 4th in the TN valley should have been the main event that hit us Feb 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Snow likely now in my zone forecast Saturday night. Where is the Rob Paul meme. Actually snow likely for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:12 PM, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs shifted the shield north and west. Honing in on a good storm... Expand But we can stop the North and West movement now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:56 PM, Interstate said: But we can stop the North and West movement now though. Expand If hp was running away to the NE i would be very worried. The old cliche of not wanting to be in the bullseye 4+ days out is very true in that scenario. As long as we get precip we're getting some snow with this setup. A 1040 hp due north of the approaching storm is money for the MA. I agree with Ji's take where if we mix we're likely to get thumped because it means the shortwave is amped up. Fringed is the bigger risk but chances of that seem to be going away every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 00z will probably trend better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 18z Euro only goes to 90 (EPS goes to 144) but wave is more consolidated and there is slightly better ridging in the west. More consolidated wave causing slightly higher heights ahead of the wave. Heights are very similar in the NE, maybe a smidge lower over New England. Overall looks even better than 12z. EPS should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 here is your h5 vort look on 18z compared 12z. Notable stronger southern s/w. Also h5 mslp and hgts. Stronger low, higher hgts out ahead. Also, the area circled for people further north on the 12z run had that jet streak that dove south and compressed the hgt field. This run doesn't have that feature. The hgt field is a tad lower in new england, but without that jet streak it may allow hgts to recover in time for a push north and west more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 the one storm @showmethesnow was the most down on ha....its like whatever the likes or dislikes, the opposite happens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 The story this winter has not been for vorts in the SS to shear out which gave me some pause yesterday with the Euro’s depictions. While it could trend the other way, it seems winter is showing its hand again as we get under 5 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:32 AM, nj2va said: The story this winter has not been for vorts in the SS to shear out which gave me some pause yesterday with the Euro’s depictions. While it could trend the other way, it seems winter is showing its hand again as we get under 5 days now. Expand As you mentioned, that was a rather significant improvement on the Euro, and in this case having the Euro at 18z is a great tool to have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:37 AM, frd said: As you mentioned, that was a rather significant improvement on the Euro, and in this case having the Euro at 18z is a great tool to have now. Expand Storm mode thread before friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 Laugh if you want but the 18Z Euro looks like the NAM. It would be a big hit IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:38 AM, JakkelWx said: Storm mode thread before friday? Expand Like @psuhoffman mentioned earlier, very possible there will be a time coming up soon when we have multiple threads on impending events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:38 AM, JakkelWx said: Storm mode thread before friday? Expand Yea, it probably best to start keeping things clean starting tomorrow. Getting to the point where hundreds or even thousands of lurkers check in regularly to glean info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:41 AM, Bob Chill said: Yea, it probably best to start keeping things clean starting tomorrow. Getting to the point where hundreds or even thousands of lurkers check in regularly to glean info. Expand Waiting for the first board crash of the storm. My guess is tomorrow evening runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:29 AM, tombo82685 said: here is your h5 vort look on 18z compared 12z. Notable stronger southern s/w. Also h5 mslp and hgts. Stronger low, higher hgts out ahead. Also, the area circled for people further north on the 12z run had that jet streak that dove south and compressed the hgt field. This run doesn't have that feature. The hgt field is a tad lower in new england, but without that jet streak it may allow hgts to recover in time for a push north and west more. Expand A little bit of ridging ahead of the storm making a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:37 AM, frd said: As you mentioned, that was a rather significant improvement on the Euro, and in this case having the Euro at 18z is a great tool to have now. Expand Absolutely and Euro would be even better than 12z which was already a significant improvement over 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:39 AM, clskinsfan said: Laugh if you want but the 18Z Euro looks like the NAM. It would be a big hit IMO. Expand Wow, and I know it might have been mentioned, but it is darn cold too. ECM 2 meter temps are cold all the way down to South Carolina on 12ZSat. SE Canada is frigid. Imagine once we get additional snow cover to our North, then we run the risk of real arctic cold. And cold smoke storms of lore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:29 AM, tombo82685 said: here is your h5 vort look on 18z compared 12z. Notable stronger southern s/w. Also h5 mslp and hgts. Stronger low, higher hgts out ahead. Also, the area circled for people further north on the 12z run had that jet streak that dove south and compressed the hgt field. This run doesn't have that feature. The hgt field is a tad lower in new england, but without that jet streak it may allow hgts to recover in time for a push north and west more. Expand The 18z euro is almost as amped as the nam lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:29 AM, Ji said: the one storm @showmethesnow was the most down on ha....its like whatever the likes or dislikes, the opposite happens lol Expand He is only down on it because he will miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:18 AM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 00z will probably trend better. Expand Who are you and where is Chuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:55 PM, BristowWx said: Snow likely now in my zone forecast Saturday night. Where is the Rob Paul meme. Actually snow likely for everyone. Expand Sure glad I didn't follow your advice and, oh strike that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:54 AM, Wonderdog said: Sure glad I didn't follow your advice and, oh strike that. Expand I’m an idiot. That snowblower has been a friend to all of us. Apologize to it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2019 Share Posted January 9, 2019 On 1/9/2019 at 12:47 AM, psuhoffman said: He is only down on it because he will miss it. Expand He is going to Vegas so I think he will be ok. Unless he blows through his bank roll too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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