PDIII Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:30 PM, JakkelWx said: Are you saying that the temps here won't be as much as an issue than what the FV3 is showing? Snow seems to hate us across the chessy bay. Expand Refer to the people that know what they are talking about.. seriously.. I am just weenieing out here.. but from my experience.. watching these things play out over the years.. when you get High Pressure placement like that over SE Canada.. anything 1040+ (and I have seen some runs with 1050+).. it is typically gonna be a cold storm.. and it is the temp and pressure gradient result in more lift.. more dynamics.. more precip.. and if things break right.. you can cash in on high ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not our area but this from NWS Wakefield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:28 PM, BristowWx said: Euro says cold smoke so that is good enough for now. IP/ZR is fine too. Straight rain would be a kick in the pills. Expand It's a real concern even with all these cold runs we're seeing. Back off confluence and amplify the shortwave and something like the fv3 is in the realm. We'll see how it goes over the next 2-3 days before hitting the worry button. Imho- as long as we get good precip we're getting a good event even if there are ptype issues. Antecedent conditions are as good as any other solid event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:28 PM, Ji said: On 1/8/2019 at 10:16 PM, Bob Chill said: I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. Expand Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010? Expand When I clicked in the TN Valley region the #2 analog date was 2-4-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:19 PM, Scraff said: I didn’t mean Boston had a shot. Nor would I care. I just figured it had a touch more room to climb the coast before heading out. Expand All good. Hope you guys cash in. You’re sittin pretty for this one. Maybe next one is for us northerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:39 PM, SnowGoose69 said: When I clicked in the TN Valley region the #2 analog date was 2-4-10That was 5 inches of heavy wet warm snow for dc I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:38 PM, Bob Chill said: It's a real concern even with all these cold runs we're seeing. Back off confluence and amplify the shortwave and something like the fv3 is in the realm. We'll see how it goes over the next 2-3 days before hitting the worry button. Imho- as long as we get good precip we're getting a good event even if there are ptype issues. Antecedent conditions are as good as any other solid event Expand Right. Will worry when it’s time. Gonna enjoy this for now. 4 days now roughly. We are zoning in on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:31 PM, Bob Chill said: Both are pretty good analogs. Southern wave running a boundary and enough confluence to abate temp issues and also keep it from running the coast. Cold powder like both of the ones your thinking. Some of these 30 hours of snow outputs seem unlikely. Very unlikely... pattern is still progressive and h5 doesnt close off. That eliminates long drawn out solutions in my brain but the models show it so we hug Expand 12/9/2018 FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pythium Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FV3 is uner the old mageval ncep site ........it is simply labeled GFS it puts more pricip up near MD line up through Jersey, still looks pretty good! https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This morning...the 6z gfs was way suppressed and caved to the suppressed euro and we were hoping for a mercy dusting. Now we are here. We dont know as much as we think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:16 PM, Bob Chill said: I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. Expand Yeah temp issues should be the least of our worries...we just need to get the thing up here as modeled today, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:46 PM, Ji said: This morning...the 6z gfs was way suppressed and caved to the suppressed euro and we were hoping for a mercy dusting. Now we are here. We dont know as much as we think Expand Some know as much as I think they do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:46 PM, Ji said: This morning...the 6z gfs was way suppressed and caved to the suppressed euro and we were hoping for a mercy dusting. Now we are here. We dont know as much as we think Expand Unfortunately It’s only Tuesday and I’m not sure anything we have seen thus far will be the actual outcome....good or bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:47 PM, leesburg 04 said: Some know as much as I think they do Expand We'll know more about this weekend in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:49 PM, jewell2188 said: Unfortunately It’s only Tuesday and I’m not sure anything we have seen thus far will be the actual outcome....good or bad Expand Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The GEFS looks very healthy for at least a high end advisory level event for a majority of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:02 PM, SnowGolfBro said: What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm? Expand A slanted ruler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:00 PM, Bob Chill said: We'll know more about this weekend in 2 weeks.You should go back and read the long range for the comments surrounding this week like 5-15 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:19 PM, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Fv3 says congrats. It's still a good run everywhere honestly. Temp issues seem pretty meager overall. Verbatim would be snow to mix or zr then back to snow as the storm rolls up the coast. Boston likes the Fv3 also. Expand Just one run but the trends today are nice. I think there is a limit to how far northwest this can go given the high on top. Those runs the other day that had a front end thump to dryslot are probably the worse case scenario for a north trend. Of course a miss south still being the worse case but quickly becoming less likely issue to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:02 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Funny. I think we have seen the final solution at some point over the last 48 hours. Because we’ve seen pretty much seen every possible outcome. From NC special to MA special to coastal hugger. And everything in between. Time to listen to the pros and see where this thing goes over the next 72 hours. If i can ask one weenie question. What are we looking for to turn this into a foot plus snowstorm? Expand Greed is a terrible thing...lol (But really, doesn't look like this is that kind of storm. Even the most bullish solution spit out by the models so far was like 6-8 inches if I'm not mistaken) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:05 PM, Bob Chill said: A slanted ruler New math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The FV3 is how we get crushed out this way. Most concerning thing would be the dryslot. And if the FV3 is right there would be a nasty one somewhere over VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 10:44 PM, Ji said: On 1/8/2019 at 10:39 PM, SnowGoose69 said: When I clicked in the TN Valley region the #2 analog date was 2-4-10 Expand That was 5 inches of heavy wet warm snow for dc I think Expand That was a bust in the DC proper. It snowed but with UHI it never got cold enough to accumlate much more than an inch or two on grassy surfaces. But no one cared because it was just a few days before the big storm on 2-6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:06 PM, Ji said: On 1/8/2019 at 11:00 PM, Bob Chill said: We'll know more about this weekend in 2 weeks. Expand You should go back and read the long range for the comments surrounding this week like 5-15 days ago Expand I know exactly how bad they were. I made like 400 of them. Reverse weenieology is a real thing and it worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18z gefs shifted the shield north and west. Honing in on a good storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 The late day EURO comes out when? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:13 PM, WhiteoutMD said: The late day EURO comes out when? . Expand Not sure i like having the 6z and 18z Euro. I liked having all night to enjoy happy hour before the Euro crushes all my hopes and dreams..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:20 PM, Bob Chill said: Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12zMixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 11:25 PM, Ji said: On 1/8/2019 at 11:20 PM, Bob Chill said: Pretty much unanimous on the gefs for a good event. Couple haved mixed ptype. More than 12z Expand Mixed is a good sign of less chance for suppression Expand Exactly what I was thinking. I don't think either of us have much to worry about, or really anyone N/W of the cities. Probably not in the cities either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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