Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Still a lot of spread but the 12z eps is a marked improvement over 0z. A lot more members have a stronger shortwave/lp hitting us. A solid run but enough whiffs/light events to give pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I'll post specific data shortly but it really is an encouraging EPS run. Quite a few warning level hits in there and not many total misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I'll post specific data shortly but it really is an encouraging EPS run. Quite a few warning level hits in there and not many total misses. Expand Most notable shift I see is the 24 hr precip plots are much wetter down south through the TN valley. 0.5 inches or more at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I'll post specific data shortly but it really is an encouraging EPS run. Quite a few warning level hits in there and not many total misses. Expand But does it have many outright busts in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:22 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: It definitely blood-sucking-insected its way a bit farther north for us. Expand Why can’t I hit the haha button more than once!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is quite the bump on the mean..24 hr at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 EPS snowfall MEAN through 7 PM Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:35 PM, Scraff said: Why can’t I hit the haha button more than once!? Expand Around 15 or so would suck but 20 are warning level at least somewhere in the region. Some damn good cherry picking though...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:35 PM, yoda said: But does it have many outright busts in there? Expand He said a few misses, but the key is much better than 0z. I would say the main message is continued improvement which is all we can ask for at this point and time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Where's the dude that was giving us the number of ens members for BWI with 0", 4", 8" snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:37 PM, Bob Chill said: Around 15 or so would suck but 20 are warning level at least somewhere in the region. Some damn good cherry picking though...lol Expand Talk about leaving work early lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:37 PM, Grothar of Herndon said: He said a few misses, but the key is much better than 0z. I would say the main message is continued improvement which is all we can ask for at this point and time. Expand I know... I was using Eskimo Joe's post awhile back about the GEFS to troll and ask Bob about the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:37 PM, Grothar of Herndon said: He said a few misses, but the key is much better than 0z. I would say the main message is continued improvement which is all we can ask for at this point and time. Expand Exactly. I just compared to 0z and it's a HUGE improvement. Like night and day for 12 hours. We're in that range with the EPS where it has the hive mentality though so it's to be expected. Control run looks just like the OP and that general solution is the highest probability within the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:39 PM, yoda said: I know... I was using Eskimo Joe's post awhile back about the GEFS to troll and ask Bob about the EPS Expand ok. Sorry I missed that 'poke'. I am having a challenge getting Eskimo Joe's post about Randy and the National Mall out of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:37 PM, Bob Chill said: Around 15 or so would suck but 20 are warning level at least somewhere in the region. Some damn good cherry picking though...lol Expand Lovin what I’m seeing! This just needs to hold or juice up even more. A good NAMing coming soon?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:44 PM, Scraff said: Lovin what I’m seeing! This just needs to hold or juice up even more. A good NAMing coming soon?? Expand Maybe on Thursday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Here's the full suite of member output. Judge for yourselves. Snow maps in this case are fairly useful as there is no question about ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:44 PM, Scraff said: Lovin what I’m seeing! This just needs to hold or juice up even more. A good NAMing coming soon?? Expand softball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:39 PM, Bob Chill said: Exactly. I just compared to 0z and it's a HUGE improvement. Like night and day for 12 hours. We're in that range with the EPS where it has the hive mentality though so it's to be expected. Control run looks just like the OP and that general solution is the highest probability within the suite. Expand So the EPS and the GEFS both made big improvements. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 would be funny(not funny) if this storm produced more than we will get in our suppressed epic -NAO/SSW pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Not one total whiff on EPS. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:52 PM, snowmagnet said: So the EPS and the GEFS both made big improvements. Thank you! Expand Both means show solid advisory/low-end warning criteria for the entire subforum. Huge freaking win. Hopefully we keep it up for another 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:54 PM, BristowWx said: Not one total whiff on EPS. Not bad Expand Yep. And it’s not like there are 4 HECS mixed in skewing the mean. One Hecs in their and a fair amount of SECS and MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:52 PM, Ji said: would be funny(not funny) if this storm produced more than we will get in our suppressed epic -NAO/SSW pattern Expand We live in a strange area when it comes to snow so it wouldn't surprise me. Luck and chaos > epic patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:59 PM, Bob Chill said: We live in a strange area when it comes to snow so it wouldn't surprise me. Luck and chaos > epic patterns Expand I'm still running with the government shutdown correlation...perhaps that'll beat the "chaos" lead to epicness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 7:58 PM, SnowGolfBro said: Yep. And it’s not like there are 4 HECS mixed in skewing the mean. One Hecs in their and a fair amount of SECS and MECS. Expand Takeaway...might snow some this weekend. Love snow weekends. Booze, snacks, tv and no expectations. And a lot of winter left to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 8:02 PM, BristowWx said: Takeaway...might snow some this weekend. Love snow weekends. Booze, snacks, tv and no expectations. And a lot of winter left to go. Expand And some good playoff games on too. This weekend def calls for Titos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 8:02 PM, BristowWx said: Takeaway...might snow some this weekend. Love snow weekends. Booze, snacks, tv and no expectations. And a lot of winter left to go. Expand Bought a golf simulator this fall and all I've been able to think about since is hitting virtual range balls in my garage with a fire going while fatties fall from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 On 1/8/2019 at 8:18 PM, B-Paq said: Bought a golf simulator this fall and all I've been able to think about since is hitting virtual range balls in my garage with a fire going while fatties fall from the sky Expand All of that is on the table. But we need to get to Thursday. We are still in a range where I don’t feel comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 This is a storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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