2019 ENSO

[Diana]

On 1/6/2019 at 3:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mixed results in this area on second year el ninos...87-88 was meh, but 77-78 was great.

This is true.

[raindancewx]

You all should sneak away from your locations and find a way to go white water rafting on the Rio Grande River this year - conditions are amazing. Beautiful, cold level four rapids to cool you off from the dry 90 degree air.

Anyway, my hunch is that the remaining warm pool and the incoming cool pool, at least for the short term, will lead to some, but not dramatic cooling. We'll see. They effectively look evenly matched for now.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8
 26JUN2019     22.1-0.3     26.5 0.4     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.2
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9

Heat is draining West in the Nino zones? On the subsurface data, the weekly value is still neutral. In 2016, Nino 3.4 was already in La Nina territory by this point, with Nino 1.2 quite warm still.

Some very early ideas for winter - will change several times by October 10

- AMO and PDO both more positive than last year.

- Eastern Tropical Pacific colder than Western Tropical Pacific. 

- Low Solar - how low is an open question. 

- If the -NAO lasts all of July, that is a fairly strong cold signal for the East in December.

- Cold Junes highs are much more likely than other Junes to be followed by cold winter highs in the Southwest. In Albuquerque, 12/19 winters are 2F or more below the 100-year average high after a June that is cold. This is offset this year by the tendency for winters to be warm here a year after an El Nino. 

[Cerakoter1984]

I'm not around much on here anymore but good stuff, as always, raindance. I always enjoy the way you think and connect things.

[raindancewx]

The subsurface for June 2019 was +0.24. For 1979-2018, that typically meant Neutral in winter, but you can see a few La Nina and El Ninos - weak - in there too. Subsurface becomes a much better indicator in September, the r-squared approaches 0.75. June 2017 subsurface was almost identical to this year, but followed a La Nina. Last year, June was +0.86.

100-180W	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
1979	0.39	0.97	0.31	-0.21	0.06	0.35	0.19	0.49	0.91	0.63	1.06	0.92
1980	0.83	0.62	0.50	0.82	1.14	1.17	0.27	0.04	-0.26	0.02	0.35	0.61
1981	0.36	0.30	1.02	0.77	0.24	-0.22	-0.66	-0.59	0.14	0.25	0.02	-0.22
1982	0.21	0.56	0.92	0.93	0.96	1.01	1.11	1.61	1.86	2.07	1.92	1.45
1983	0.05	-0.81	-0.95	0.23	-0.32	-1.12	-1.51	-1.66	-2.15	-2.25	-1.81	-1.36
1984	-0.87	-0.90	-0.92	-0.77	-1.11	-1.15	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37	-0.93	-0.63	-0.35
1985	-0.16	-0.34	-0.65	-0.24	0.09	-0.02	-0.08	0.24	-0.20	-0.26	0.11	0.27
1986	0.21	0.41	0.46	-0.02	0.31	0.80	0.45	0.50	0.65	0.95	0.52	0.97
1987	1.22	0.17	0.60	0.31	0.58	0.37	-0.10	0.20	-0.25	-0.17	-0.37	-0.67
1988	-0.45	-0.88	-1.31	-1.76	-1.55	-1.22	-0.87	-0.72	-1.07	-2.01	-2.04	-1.65
1989	-0.89	-0.11	0.42	0.50	0.61	0.87	0.78	0.35	0.26	-0.02	-0.22	0.64
1990	0.78	1.08	1.14	0.65	0.05	-0.30	0.27	0.46	0.25	0.50	0.38	0.88
1991	0.92	0.29	0.18	0.80	0.76	0.77	0.73	0.49	0.60	1.41	1.22	1.71
1992	1.57	1.98	0.83	0.38	-0.32	-0.78	-0.73	-0.73	-0.56	-0.50	-0.27	0.19
1993	0.27	0.28	0.56	0.81	0.42	-0.29	-0.40	-0.38	0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.33
1994	-0.62	-0.60	-0.40	-0.14	0.16	0.14	0.02	0.67	0.70	1.12	1.16	0.80
1995	0.51	0.13	-0.44	-0.60	-0.44	-0.14	-0.44	-0.84	-1.20	-1.03	-0.86	-0.84
1996	-0.29	-0.12	0.05	0.01	-0.16	0.17	-0.18	-0.35	-0.46	-0.30	-0.47	-0.30
1997	0.56	1.00	1.17	2.17	2.01	2.25	1.83	1.79	2.38	2.56	2.30	1.02
1998	0.00	-0.38	-0.61	-1.06	-1.75	-2.16	-2.29	-2.46	-2.15	-2.35	-2.33	-2.18
1999	-1.80	-1.61	-0.99	-0.91	-0.81	-0.52	-0.64	-1.21	-1.27	-1.07	-1.48	-1.55
2000	-1.28	-0.91	-0.64	-0.31	-0.18	0.08	0.03	0.00	-0.12	-0.37	-0.67	-0.96
2001	-0.56	-0.63	-0.29	0.26	0.11	0.46	0.61	0.12	0.35	0.28	0.22	0.17
2002	0.95	0.78	0.55	0.32	0.07	0.67	0.73	1.05	1.41	1.72	1.58	0.74
2003	0.27	-0.11	-0.06	-0.49	-0.85	0.13	0.53	0.03	0.10	0.34	0.54	0.17
2004	0.05	0.19	-0.10	0.21	0.30	0.04	0.83	0.78	0.87	0.61	0.78	0.79
2005	0.52	0.59	1.27	0.49	0.00	0.11	-0.20	-0.42	-0.33	-0.14	-0.57	-0.74
2006	-0.97	-0.92	-0.29	0.42	0.54	0.76	0.73	1.05	1.13	0.80	1.35	0.86
2007	-0.46	-0.77	-0.72	-0.59	-0.58	-0.18	-0.48	-0.68	-1.03	-1.19	-1.19	-1.08
2008	-1.50	-1.20	-0.45	0.02	0.17	0.38	0.42	-0.15	-0.69	-0.48	-0.77	-1.44
2009	-1.08	-0.50	0.08	0.65	0.87	1.13	1.05	0.79	0.76	1.04	1.75	1.36
2010	1.14	1.24	0.97	-0.06	-1.00	-1.34	-1.36	-1.74	-1.93	-1.92	-1.64	-1.56
2011	-1.27	-0.22	0.50	0.58	0.47	0.39	0.06	-0.54	-1.01	-1.26	-0.92	-1.07
2012	-1.17	-0.46	0.00	0.27	0.47	0.56	0.82	0.83	0.36	0.40	0.34	-0.27
2013	-0.59	-0.17	0.06	-0.06	-0.14	0.26	0.41	0.32	0.38	0.15	0.62	0.26
2014	-0.33	0.39	1.60	1.41	0.95	0.27	-0.18	0.39	0.64	0.53	0.90	0.54
2015	0.15	0.83	1.52	1.74	1.53	1.51	1.69	1.97	1.80	1.91	1.78	1.20
2016	1.25	0.56	-0.31	-0.88	-1.15	-1.05	-0.76	-0.71	-0.71	-0.92	-0.62	-0.24
2017	0.01	0.15	0.22	0.06	0.30	0.22	0.16	-0.40	-0.79	-0.97	-0.84	-0.75
2018	-0.16	-0.11	0.51	0.80	0.88	0.86	0.81	0.81	1.12	1.59	1.36	1.06
2019	0.59	0.94	1.19	0.41	0.07	0.24

[raindancewx]

European has abandoned El Nino chances for winter.

My personal, totally subjective odds are at 65% Neutral, 30% La Nina, 5% El Nino at this point. The subsurface, if you look back at July 2017 on the animations I post, is simultaneously warmer and cooler than July 2019. Nino 3 is already in La Nina territory this July on Tropical Tidbits, but Nino 3.4 is still warm in the western areas - I think that general look will hold for a while. You can think of it as an "east-based" cold Neutral? That's what I like for winter. Don't see the heat in Nino 4 going anywhere soon, and it should hold up Nino 3.4. A Neutral or La Nina winter, after an El Nino, with low-solar conditions and the east (Nino 1.2/3) colder than the west (Nino 3.4/4) is a pretty interesting winter. Low-solar, non-El Nino winters, after an El Nino include 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Winters a year after an El Nino tend to be titled toward warmth and wetness.  Part of why I'm skeptical of a La Nina for this winter is how positive the PDO has become since April - very different from 2017 which had a similar subsurface and Nino 3.4 SST reading in June.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 7/8/2019 at 10:40 PM, Cerakoter1984 said:

I'm not around much on here anymore but good stuff, as always, raindance. I always enjoy the way you think and connect things.

I agree. Very solid contributor.

[raindancewx]

The new Jamstec has a flat-Neutral winter now, with the eastern zones pretty cold. It has the SW cold, US warm. It looks a bit like a blend of 1931, 1987, 2004, 2004, 2016, 2017, 2017 for the oceans and US (a small pool of near average to slightly cool in the SW with a warm US). Something relevant will change by October, but low-solar Neutrals actually are pretty cold in the SW typically. Worth noting: in 2017, it didn't see a La Nina until September 2017. The July forecast is actually pretty close to the May forecast though, unlike in 2017, when the Spring outlook consistently had a moderate El Nino.

The model also has a very hot Fall nationally - hottest Fall forecast I've seen from it actually.

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Almost a La Nina configuration showing up in the latest TAO/Triton. Subsurface is about -0.4 "ONI" (for a ~peak)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

91-95 never went away from El Nino in the subsurface though. This one is veering. 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8
 26JUN2019     22.1-0.3     26.5 0.4     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.2
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9
 10JUL2019     21.7-0.2     25.9 0.1     27.7 0.4     29.7 0.9

 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5

 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5
 29JUN2016     22.6 0.4     25.9-0.1     27.1-0.4     29.1 0.3
 06JUL2016     22.2 0.2     25.5-0.4     27.0-0.4     29.1 0.3
 13JUL2016     21.8 0.0     25.1-0.6     26.7-0.6     29.1 0.3

Nino 3.4 is around 28.2C this May-July, v. 27.6C last May-July - favoring a wetter far southern US. Not much signal for winter from the -NAO in May-July.

[raindancewx]

In La Nina winters, the Atlantic ACE index is one of the strongest indicators I can find for whether the SW will be hot or not. The years when your deity of choice sends out hurricane after hurricane to ravage the shoreline from coast to coast are absolutely bone dry and severely hot in the SW US. 1933-34 (the epitome of the Dustbowl) and 2005-06, the closest year to the Dustbowl pattern in the last 20 years, both had ACE indexes of over 250 - with record heat and less than a quarter inch of precipitation in Albuquerque. The 2017-18 year was no slouch either, ACE was 225, and we roasted, but the great SOI crash of February 2018 did kind of save that winter from record heat and dryness. Right now, the ACE index is under 5 for the season - http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/   Above 125, all our La Nina winter are warmer than average (49.5F).

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

low ACE huh?

[raindancewx]

My point is that the ACE Index is a pretty good indicator for whether the SW is warm, average or even cool in a La Nina for highs - which gives ideas about the overall setup. Just as with El Ninos, I don't find much (any) correlation between SSTs/ONI/SSTA in Nino 3.4 in winter and highs in the SW. But things that happen coinciding with the ENSO phase do matter quite a bit. As an indicator, ACE actually beats winter or cold season AMO values in La Ninas. 

July still looks like my Summer analogs which assumed the El Nino would last deep into Spring or even Summer -

The waters by South America are much colder than in 2017 - presumably they'll spread West with time as the last bit of warmth thins out around 170W? The Jamstec has a very cold Nino 1.2/3 in Fall, and then it warms up there as the coldest anomalies shift West.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

El Nino kind of building back toward the surface in latest subsurface maps. The cold pool will prevent us from breaking +0.7 ONI

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Big difference between Isotherm depth and SST. It does look like we might start a warming trend in the subsurface. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Back to La Nina today lol

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8
 26JUN2019     22.1-0.3     26.5 0.4     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.2
 03JUL2019     21.8-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.7 0.9
 10JUL2019     21.7-0.2     25.9 0.1     27.7 0.4     29.7 0.9
 17JUL2019     21.3-0.3     25.6 0.0     27.4 0.2     29.7 0.9

Warmth continues to thin in the Eastern Nino zones. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

PDO remained pretty positive in June too, by the way - https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2019-01-01T00:00:00Z	0.66
2019-02-01T00:00:00Z	0.46
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z	0.37
2019-04-01T00:00:00Z	1.07
2019-05-01T00:00:00Z	1.03
2019-06-01T00:00:00Z	1.09

A lot of the models have winter something like a cold Nino 1.2/3, flat Nino 3.4, warm Nino 4, with low solar, a warm Atlantic, a positive PDO, and it would be a winter following an El Nino. I think a blend of low-solar West-based El Ninos (2004, 2009), a Neutral (2003), and low solar La Ninas with a positive PDO (1984, 2016) has some merit if we have Neutral conditions. Also threw in 2007 (low solar, major La Nina) to lower the overall temperatures in the Tropical Pacific. That blend matches my weather locally fairly well for June/July (cold then warm) and seems to look like what the models currently have for winter. Looks OK for things like the QBO too. The Summer of 2012 had a big -NAO period, and then the cold went into the West. That is what the Jamstec shows, and what you get if you map the years I blended. These aren't my analogs, but this is the time of year I start to test matches for winter. The Jamstec kind of looks like a slightly warmed up version of 2012-13 in the Tropics, with a positive PDO and lower solar. If its SST depiction is correct (it probably isn't yet), the temperature idea isn't crazy given the SST look. 

[Newman]

On 7/22/2019 at 7:49 PM, raindancewx said:

A lot of the models have winter something like a cold Nino 1.2/3, flat Nino 3.4, warm Nino 4, with low solar, a warm Atlantic, a positive PDO, and it would be a winter following an El Nino. I think a blend of low-solar West-based El Ninos (2004, 2009), a Neutral (2003), and low solar La Ninas with a positive PDO (1984, 2016) has some merit if we have Neutral conditions. Also threw in 2007 (low solar, major La Nina) to lower the overall temperatures in the Tropical Pacific. That blend matches my weather locally fairly well for June/July (cold then warm) and seems to look like what the models currently have for winter. Looks OK for things like the QBO too. The Summer of 2012 had a big -NAO period, and then the cold went into the West. That is what the Jamstec shows, and what you get if you map the years I blended. These aren't my analogs, but this is the time of year I start to test matches for winter. The Jamstec kind of looks like a slightly warmed up version of 2012-13 in the Tropics, with a positive PDO and lower solar. If its SST depiction is correct (it probably isn't yet), the temperature idea isn't crazy given the SST look. 

I've just started to look towards what this winter may deliver, and 2003-04 seems like a strong analog. It was coming off a prior El Nino winter, it was mainly weak Nino/Neutral during the winter, it had a positive PDO, positive AMO, and low solar activity. However, the summer of 2003 transitioned into a neutral phase much quicker than what is currently forecasted for this summer/fall/winter. I would throw in 2004-05 in case we remain more El Nino, rather than completely neutral. I like 2004's QBO transition into winter as well. It's much better than 2003 and it's close to what I think we could see this winter. A later transition of the QBO could yield later stratospheric impacts deep into winter (February and March, but things like that are fickle and require other variables to look at). 2004-05 also had a warm Atlantic and low solar, but not as warm of a Pacific. 1966-67 is a solid analog with regards to the positive ONI values maintaining closer toward fall/winter. And in case we go more Nina/neutral, it's even greater. That's what I see right now at least.

[raindancewx]

Hello... Newman! I like 1966 as a Summer analog. I used 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend in my Summer forecast from May linked a few pages ago. Composite July had a cool West / hot East, which looks about right. 1992-93 stayed in El Nino territory pretty late into the year, before SSTs fell off briefly for winter, and then warmed in Spring.

The new Canadian should be out next week. Will be interesting to see what it has. The SST depictions start to become much better for winter in August. 

My guess is this winter will actually be much harder to forecast than last year. Low-solar winters, following a El Nino winter, that are not El Ninos are a pretty interesting group since 1930: 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Some really interesting winters in the West in those years.

 

[FPizz]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Hello... Newman! I like 1966 as a Summer analog. I used 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend in my Summer forecast from May linked a few pages ago. Composite July had a cool West / hot East, which looks about right. 1992-93 stayed in El Nino territory pretty late into the year, before SSTs fell off briefly for winter, and then warmed in Spring.

The new Canadian should be out next week. Will be interesting to see what it has. The SST depictions start to become much better for winter in August. 

My guess is this winter will actually be much harder to forecast than last year. Low-solar winters, following a El Nino winter, that are not El Ninos are a pretty interesting group since 1930: 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Some really interesting winters in the West in those years.

 

For the NE, most forecasts were pretty terrible overall, even from the best.  I'm not familiar with your regions forecast.  Must have been a lot better than over here. 

[raindancewx]

I had a relatively low snow totals for the NE coast in my winter forecast last October, based on the premise that nearly all low-solar El Ninos see below average snow from Boston to Philadelphia back to the 1800s. Billings and much of the Northern Plains had one of their all-time cold months in February 2019, which isn't what I forecast, but my blend of 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 1994, 2006 was pretty close from about 12/1-1/31, really even through 2/10. The severe cold in the Plains and West lasted too long in February though. Snowfall was heavy in the West, downwind of the Lakes in some areas and in the Plains - and I had that forecast too.

One thing I can say for this winter, with relatively high confidence: it is very rare to get even three very cold winters in Montana and the Dakotas, as we have seen in some areas for 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19. Billings finished around 4F below the 1951-2010 average high in all three DJF seasons. Last time you had three severely cold winters in a row there was 1970-71, 1971-72, 1972-73. (1970 and 2016 were both after two El Ninos in a row, 1970, 1971, 1972 is a La/La/El sequence like 2016/2017/2018).

Back to the 1930s, I can't find four severely cold winters in a row like that in that part of the US. It could still be 1-2F below normal, but you really have to bet on a warmer winter up there at this point, which has some interesting implications about the US pattern. 2018-19 was well on its way to being warm in Montana through January, but the average high in February 2019 was like 22F or something below average in Billings, coldest February since 1936 (another year with some very impressive Summer heat). A lot of years with impressive heat waves in Western Europe or the Eastern US during Summer actually end up cold somewhere in the West. The 20 hottest average high Summers in Philadelphia include winters many winters in the West that have at least brief periods of record/near record in the West.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It looks like another cold wave is developing in the subsurface. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 7/24/2019 at 10:46 PM, raindancewx said:

Hello... Newman! I like 1966 as a Summer analog. I used 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend in my Summer forecast from May linked a few pages ago. Composite July had a cool West / hot East, which looks about right. 1992-93 stayed in El Nino territory pretty late into the year, before SSTs fell off briefly for winter, and then warmed in Spring.

The new Canadian should be out next week. Will be interesting to see what it has. The SST depictions start to become much better for winter in August. 

My guess is this winter will actually be much harder to forecast than last year. Low-solar winters, following a El Nino winter, that are not El Ninos are a pretty interesting group since 1930: 1931, 1942, 1952, 1954, 1964, 1973, 1995, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2016. Some really interesting winters in the West in those years.

 

Harder??? I mean my goodness...last winter, I don't think anybody got it right (at least not for the northeastern part of the country). I mean it didn't do what anybody thought it would...So if this winter is gonna be even harder to predict, then just throw predicitons out the window, lol

[etudiant]

27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Harder??? I mean my goodness...last winter, I don't think anybody got it right (at least not for the northeastern part of the country). I mean it didn't do what anybody thought it would...So if this winter is gonna be even harder to predict, then just throw predicitons out the window, lol

Sadly there is no reliable skill demonstrated by any of the longer term forecasting models, at least afaik.

The ludicrous month to month temperature switch for the DJF period recently shown by the JAMSTEC underscores the total lack of any such credible forecasts. JAMSTEC is a decent model and the people driving it are not beholden to the prevailing fads, but the reality remains that their long term forecasts are subject to massive change from month to month. That makes them useless operationally imho.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 hours ago, etudiant said:

Sadly there is no reliable skill demonstrated by any of the longer term forecasting models, at least afaik.

The ludicrous month to month temperature switch for the DJF period recently shown by the JAMSTEC underscores the total lack of any such credible forecasts. JAMSTEC is a decent model and the people driving it are not beholden to the prevailing fads, but the reality remains that their long term forecasts are subject to massive change from month to month. That makes them useless operationally imho.

True...And just the winter forecasts in general done by even the more knowledgeable and experienced last winter...fell hard! And it was like "Uhh, we don't know why it's doing what it's doing", lol Last winter seemed to baffle more forecasters than usual (but perhaps I'm just imagining it!)

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

True...And just the winter forecasts in general done by even the more knowledgeable and experienced last winter...fell hard! And it was like "Uhh, we don't know why it's doing what it's doing", lol Last winter seemed to baffle more forecasters than usual (but perhaps I'm just imagining it!)

Yea, no one nailed it....some obviously better than others, but even those that got it "right" missed some key points.

I was awful.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, no one nailed it....some obviously better than others, but even those that got it "right" missed some key points.

I was awful.

I don't deserve any credit - I repeat ...no credit.

Mainly... because I did not cobble together a seasonal forecast late last summer/autumn.   What I did instead ... was drive-by snark post pot-shots at other's gallant, back-of hand pressed to forehead over glazed eye efforts.  I mean... veritable Master's caliber dissertations, replete with advanced word processing and state of the art graphical annotations... and me, blithely and assholier than thouly reducing them in two flippant sentences.  Nice.  That's the way I roll - 

Kidding... still, I distinctly recall warning contributors often enough, that gradient saturation, a paradigm shift that has occurred since ~ 2000 and continues to become more destructively interfering as the decades click away ... is muddling the climatology of longer termed multi-seasonal teleconnector packages.  The ENSO relative numbers and how they have come to correlate ( hypothetical/supposition ) in the past,  .... don't work. They didn't work in the powerhouse mega ENSO ( warm phase ) several years ago; and in fact, ...papers were submitted and peer reviewed successfully noting the startling lack of correlative impacts Globally by one of ...if not the, hot ENSO events ever recorded.  ...etc...etc... It becomes less likely ( intuitively..) that minoring standard deviation events could impact the circulation of the Global very meaningful, when the massive momentum contributors, could not.  ( I have physical hypothesis why that is, too )

I for one am frustrated by GW/climate change...and the continued reticence to even acknowledge that we are living in times that are increasingly rendering all heretofore correlative expectation-sciences ...  less than germane. 

Perhaps not entirely ... please don't read this as absolute.   As we know ... the gears of the environment are lubed by balancing forces ...So...threshold and partials are in play at all times...such that result sets both do and do not represent suggestively... At times, demonstratively so, at others...seeming to have returned to the prior expectation...and so on and so forth.  But, given the longer time spans...eventually the new paradigm does take over - we're not there yet... But, I do believe that veracious attempts, from the ranks of aficionados that are fortunate enough to have been born and live in an era that provides them any sort of pulpit at all... ( where social media's "peer review" process is tantamount to popularity politics ), to the exulted societal offices of the science... I'm sensing we are all being bamboozled by our own lack of consideration to the changing paradigm that for some reason... no one considers when they engineer their expectations.

So how do we do it?    Don't...   It's irrelevant.  I know it's an interest area... but the sad reality we've come to is that party favor seasonal outlooks are a distraction to the real dystopian storm on the horizon.   In 50 years... approximately mid way through the big kill-off ... is this going to matter?   ( more snark relax...but, ) if we turn to examining seasonal variance as it relates and is pertinent to the Global crisis...that has some substantive value in it.  

But hell... this is an open forum to the public hoi polloi...and that's not hand-cuffing students to their desks... it's an entertainment/hobby past-time .... and entertainment and responsibility ... mm, usually part company.

 

 

[raindancewx]

When I say "harder than last year", I base that off the fact there is no low-solar Neutral year since 1952-53. The closest, arguably are 2016-17, 2012-13, and 2003-04 in the last 20 years, but the 2016-17 had a warm Nino 1.2 which doesn't look likely at the moment, and the others had solar activity. I think you could see a winter with weak and erratic tropical forcing - so then the question becomes what takes over? The PDO is positive but it still kind of screwed up and not likely to get to 2014-15 levels (+2.07 for Nov-Apr) which is strongly correlated with cold in the SE US.

I tend to align observed US weather with global oscillations in the tropics to "match" initial conditions. Summer is going as I expected more or less - I thought some Eastern areas of the US would be +3 to +5 in July, after a fairly cold June nationally, and I had the West cold in July (although not where I am - had us warm).

May-July -NAO is a weak warm signal in Fall for the West and NE. Will be interesting to see if the MJO cooperates. Last Fall, we had a very warm September and then a very cold Oct-Nov in the SW. But you can see that is unlikely this year, at least in Arizona where the -NAO in MJJ is a big deal for Fall.