2019 ENSO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Yeah.. STJ. rain lol

[raindancewx]

Coldest May for Albuquerque since 1980.

The Canadian has a somewhat different look nationally for June than the CFS. It still has an El Nino in winter 2019-20, but it did trend weaker this run.

Since it has another east-central / basin wide El Nino for 2019-20, the look disfavors the East for cold.

[raindancewx]

Updated ONI / CPC numbers for May should be out this week. Subsurface heat fell again in May for the 100-180W zone in the tropical pacific.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W
2019    3     0.89      1.07       1.36
2019    4     0.39      0.54       0.58
2019    5     0.02      0.07       0.04

The 1.36, 0.58, 0.04 blend is near identical to 2005.

Year	March	April	May	Match
2019	1.36	0.58	0.04	0.00
2005	1.27	0.49	0.00	0.22
1990	1.14	0.65	0.05	0.30
1981	1.02	0.77	0.24	0.73
1992	0.83	0.38	-0.32	1.09
2002	0.55	0.32	0.07	1.10

Subsurface does look like it is coming back a bit, so 2005 will likely fall off as a good analog.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It also has the look of a late-1970s style El Nino for the Fall.

[raindancewx]

ONI remained at +0.8C in March-May on the latest update.

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM

2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.83
2019   3   28.11   27.21    0.91
2019   4   28.46   27.73    0.72
2019   5   28.49   27.85    0.64

My Summer Analog blend was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Here is how that looks v. May 2019 in Nino 3.4

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

1966 - 27.55C

1987 - 28.56C

1992 - 28.97C

1993 - 28.71C

2015 -  28.85C

May Blend: 28.37C 

May 2019: 28.49C

Weeklies remain warm.  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 15MAY2019     24.1-0.1     27.5 0.4     28.5 0.7     29.5 0.8
 22MAY2019     24.5 0.6     27.7 0.7     28.7 0.8     29.7 0.9
 29MAY2019     23.6 0.0     27.7 0.8     28.7 1.0     29.8 1.0

Subsurface heat is recovering too - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Real strong +PNA popping up now. 

[raindancewx]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 15MAY2019     24.1-0.1     27.5 0.4     28.5 0.7     29.5 0.8
 22MAY2019     24.5 0.6     27.7 0.7     28.7 0.8     29.7 0.9
 29MAY2019     23.6 0.0     27.7 0.8     28.7 1.0     29.8 1.0
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1

El Nino lives. Euro did pretty well at this time last June and keeps the El Nino into winter.

[raindancewx]

The PDO values in recent months have popped positive using the Nate Mantua method - 

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2018-11-01T00:00:00Z    -0.05
2018-12-01T00:00:00Z    0.52
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z    0.66
2019-02-01T00:00:00Z    0.46
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z    0.37
2019-04-01T00:00:00Z    1.07
2019-05-01T00:00:00Z    1.03

I find that the PDO in March-August blended with Nino 1.2 SSTs in October is a good indicator for Nov-Apr PDO values overall. So far, March-August value (Mar-May) is +0.82.

[raindancewx]

Jamstec June run warmed up its Nino 3.4 forecast through winter 2019-20. Shows a very weak El Nino now.

Summer trended colder/wetter, winter looks cold/wet too.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Nice subsurface trend uniform cold West warm central moving east. Should be el Nino through jan-feb weak or moderate.

[raindancewx]

Taos Powderhorn in New Mexico (11,000 feet up) still has 33 inches of snow. We don't have glaciers here - so that's the about the most snow you'll ever see this late into the year. The subsurface kind of looks like a Modoki El Nino at the moment, warm middle sandwiched by cold on each side. 

Albuquerque high for 6/1-6/14 is only 85.7F - that's cold enough to mean June will be our 9th month in a row with a year/year drop in monthly highs since it would have be 99 degrees each day June 15-30 to match last year. Pretty unusual in the context of the last 100 years, even after prior very warm years here like 1933-34 or 2005-06. 

The AMJ ONI figure is probably going to be right around 28.5C. I'd have to look but I think that's pretty easily top 10 since 1950 for that period in Nino 3.4.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

huh?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Anyway, same theme

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe hurricane season will be a little more active

I went with 14-8/9-3
 

[raindancewx]

Well behind the development of the 2015 Super El Nino at this point. Particularly in Nino 1.2, but Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 are much colder too.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 29APR2015     26.8 1.9     28.3 1.0     28.8 1.0     30.0 1.4
 06MAY2015     26.9 2.3     28.4 1.2     28.8 1.0     29.9 1.2
 13MAY2015     26.4 2.1     28.2 1.1     28.8 1.0     29.8 1.1
 20MAY2015     26.6 2.6     28.2 1.2     28.9 1.1     29.8 1.1
 27MAY2015     26.3 2.6     28.2 1.4     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1
 03JUN2015     25.3 1.9     28.1 1.4     29.0 1.2     30.0 1.2
 10JUN2015     25.7 2.6     28.1 1.5     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1
 17JUN2015     25.4 2.7     28.2 1.8     29.0 1.4     29.9 1.1

 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 15MAY2019     24.1-0.1     27.5 0.4     28.5 0.7     29.5 0.8
 22MAY2019     24.5 0.6     27.7 0.7     28.7 0.8     29.7 0.9
 29MAY2019     23.6 0.0     27.7 0.8     28.7 1.0     29.8 1.0
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe 2021-2022 for the Super Nino. 

[raindancewx]

June temperature anomalies look a lot like a slightly cooler version of my analogs nationally in the US - 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 as a blend. Hot West of the Continental Divide...slightly cool elsewhere.

There was a strong signal in the data for a very hot Southeast US in July. I think we may get a big derecho at some point in July around the ring of heat.

Changes are pretty interesting compared to June 2018 globally. If the El Nino holds on into winter 2019-20, there are a lot of interesting problems in trying to analog that. There are no low solar 2nd year El Ninos if you annualized solar activity from July-June so that it is centered on winter. 1953-54 kind of meets the bill, but that year didn't have a 27.0C Nino 3.4 for winter, and neither did 1952-53. 1987-88, 2015-16, 1977-78, 1958-59 and 1969-70 all had higher solar activity. In some ways 2003-04, or 2004-05 are kind of a decent match. Solar is too high though. 

Nino 3.4 was 27.38C in Dec-Feb 2018-19. If you convert the old data sets to mimic the ERSST V.5 / modern ONI data, the closest SSTs to last winter were 1941, 1963, 1976, 1987, 2004, 2006 (27.18C-27.58C). If you look at what the models show, and want a similar strength El Nino, prior winter ENSO, Modoki structure, PDO, AMO, solar conditions, with fairly similar conditions, a blend of 1952-53, 1953-54, 1986-87, 1987-88, 2009-10, 2016-17 seems fairly strong, but the PDO doesn't match on the models to that blend.

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 15MAY2019     24.1-0.1     27.5 0.4     28.5 0.7     29.5 0.8
 22MAY2019     24.5 0.6     27.7 0.7     28.7 0.8     29.7 0.9
 29MAY2019     23.6 0.0     27.7 0.8     28.7 1.0     29.8 1.0
 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8

Some weakening of the El Nino at the surface, particularly in Nino 3 in recent weeks. Subsurface heat from 100-180W is declining a bit on the ENSO weekly update too. June is still in El Nino territory. Nothing like 2015 though - 

 13MAY2015     26.4 2.1     28.2 1.1     28.8 1.0     29.8 1.1
 20MAY2015     26.6 2.6     28.2 1.2     28.9 1.1     29.8 1.1
 27MAY2015     26.3 2.6     28.2 1.4     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1
 03JUN2015     25.3 1.9     28.1 1.4     29.0 1.2     30.0 1.2
 10JUN2015     25.7 2.6     28.1 1.5     29.0 1.3     29.9 1.1
 17JUN2015     25.4 2.7     28.2 1.8     29.0 1.4     29.9 1.1

The 2015-16 El Nino was also dead already -

 11MAY2016     24.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.4 0.6     29.4 0.6
 18MAY2016     24.3 0.2     26.9-0.1     28.1 0.2     29.4 0.6
 25MAY2016     24.0 0.2     26.6-0.3     27.7-0.1     29.4 0.6
 01JUN2016     23.4 0.0     26.4-0.3     27.6-0.2     29.3 0.5
 08JUN2016     23.7 0.6     26.6 0.0     27.8 0.1     29.5 0.6
 15JUN2016     23.3 0.4     26.6 0.2     27.8 0.2     29.5 0.7
 22JUN2016     22.4-0.1     25.9-0.3     27.2-0.4     29.3 0.5

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is really starting to look La Ninaish for the Fall

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

N Pacific pattern continues to be Moderate Nino. 

[raindancewx]

The 1991-92 El Nino lasted into Summer and the kind of fell apart in Fall. I've been looking at that year. AMJ this year is probably around +0.7C against the base CPC uses. I think a lot of people consider 1992-93 an El Nino but it wasn't in winter by ONI, and then mid-1993 was again for a bit. Since 1950, June has only been above 28.0C one time before going into a La Nina in DJF (SSTs of 26.0C for the following winter, or colder). So will be interesting to see what Nino 3.4 comes in at for June.  In 2017, we went from 28.06C in June in Nino 3.4 to 25.72C in Nino 3.4 in DJF for 2017-18, that transition is similar to 1933 in the extended data, but there is no other year that goes that warm, to that cold since 1950. 1983 went from 28.27C in June to 26.0C in DJF 1983-84. If June finishes around 28.35C, that is +0.7C on the CPC standard for June. I kind of lean Neutral for winter, just because there is still some subsurface and surface warmth now, but there is definitely a fair amount of cold below the surface. It has been a while since we've had a Neutral. 

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
1990	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4
1991	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.2	1.5
1992	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1

 

2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Snow pack in this El Nino was much more durable than in recent El Ninos in the mountains of the Southwest -

[Maestrobjwa]

On 6/26/2019 at 8:06 PM, raindancewx said:

The 1991-92 El Nino lasted into Summer and the kind of fell apart in Fall. I've been looking at that year. AMJ this year is probably around +0.7C against the base CPC uses. I think a lot of people consider 1992-93 an El Nino but it wasn't in winter by ONI, and then mid-1993 was again for a bit. Since 1950, June has only been above 28.0C one time before going into a La Nina in DJF (SSTs of 26.0C for the following winter, or colder). So will be interesting to see what Nino 3.4 comes in at for June.  In 2017, we went from 28.06C in June in Nino 3.4 to 25.72C in Nino 3.4 in DJF for 2017-18, that transition is similar to 1933 in the extended data, but there is no other year that goes that warm, to that cold since 1950. 1983 went from 28.27C in June to 26.0C in DJF 1983-84. If June finishes around 28.35C, that is +0.7C on the CPC standard for June. I kind of lean Neutral for winter, just because there is still some subsurface and surface warmth now, but there is definitely a fair amount of cold below the surface. It has been a while since we've had a Neutral. 

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
1990	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.4
1991	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.2	1.5
1992	1.7	1.6	1.5	1.3	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.1

 

2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Snow pack in this El Nino was much more durable than in recent El Ninos in the mountains of the Southwest -

I mean...how long is "awhile"? We had a neutral in 2014-15 didn't we?

[raindancewx]

CPC changes its mind, but by subsurface conditions, or the current ONI baseline 2014-15 was an El Nino. If you use 26.5C, the 1951-2010 average in Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb, the SSTs qualify 2014-15 as an El Nino.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2014  10   27.16   26.75    0.40
2014  11   27.46   26.75    0.71
2014  12   27.32   26.65    0.66
2015   1   27.06   26.45    0.61
2015   2   27.18   26.66    0.52
2015   3   27.77   27.21    0.56
2015   4   28.53   27.73    0.79
2015   5   28.85   27.85    1.01

[Chambana]

Correct 2014-2015 officially classified as a weak El Niño. The last neutral was 2013-2014. 

[raindancewx]

June 2019 is going to have one of the 20 coldest June highs since 1931 in Albuquerque, 9th month in a row with a year over year decline in high temperatures. Snow in the mountains on June 4th and June 17th.

The high through 6/29 is 87.65F - long-term June average is a touch of 90.0F. Here are some years, after El Nino winters, with highs in the 86.9 - 88.9 range in Albuquerque -

1931, 1940, 1966, 1970, 1987, 1988, 1992, 2003.  Blend of 1940/1992 isn't bad nationally.

My Summer Analog blend from May 10 was 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015. Here is how that is doing locally, for highs -

Method 1	June	July	August	September
1966	88.7	93.7	89.3	81.9
1966	88.7	93.7	89.3	81.9
1987	88.0	92.6	87.8	82.4
1992	87.8	90.5	88.6	85.0
1993	91.0	94.8	88.5	83.6
2015	90.8	88.4	91.5	86.2
Blend	89.2	92.3	89.2	83.5

I think I weighted 1966 twice in my blend, too heavily, but as a blend, it was the right idea nationally for June.

 

[raindancewx]

El Nino looks pretty dead on Tropical Tidbits. Unfortunately for those of you in the South, a warm Nino 3.4 in March, April, May still is strongly correlated to a hot July, and the CFS has a pretty hot looking July now in the South. Canadian should be out with its new thoughts for weather and ENSO later tonight.

[raindancewx]

Canadian has a somewhat weaker El Nino in winter this run. Some big differences in the Canadian and CFS for July too. The CFS actually looks closer to what I expect. July looks like a derecho pattern.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 05JUN2019     22.9-0.4     27.2 0.6     28.6 0.9     29.9 1.1
 12JUN2019     23.1 0.1     26.9 0.4     28.4 0.7     29.8 1.0
 19JUN2019     22.4-0.3     26.5 0.2     28.1 0.5     29.6 0.8

                          -0.3                           0.4                  0.3                   0.2

6/26 is only on this site for now - 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Equatorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)
YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W 
2018    8     0.75      0.73       0.81
2018    9     0.88      0.93       0.98
2018   10     1.08      1.29       1.47
2018   11     0.97      1.20       1.25
2018   12     0.71      0.88       0.92
2019    1     0.53      0.62       0.59
2019    2     0.59      0.76       0.94
2019    3     0.70      0.91       1.19
2019    4     0.21      0.39       0.41
2019    5     0.01      0.09       0.07
2019    6    -0.06      0.09       0.28

Annualized solar activity came in at 5.5 sunspots for the July 2018-June 2019 period. The solar cycle is roughly an 11-year interval, and this period was weaker than 2007-08, which had 7.2 sunspots annualized.

For my friends in Boston, I'd like to remind you if we somehow keep the El Nino (unlikely now?) and low solar (pretty likely) into next winter, it isn't historically a great setup for snowfall.

El Nino	Sun Jul-J	Bos Snow
1899	18.2	25.0
1900	8.6	17.5
1902	18.7	42.0
1911	5.4	31.6
1913	7.4	39.0
1914	44.5	22.3
1923	14.6	29.8
1930	46.3	40.8
1953	9.5	23.6
1963	29.1	63.0
1965	37.1	44.1
1976	23.2	58.5
1986	19.1	42.5
1994	36.9	14.9
2006	20.1	17.1
2009	13.2	35.7
2018	5.5	27.4
Mean	21.0	33.8

[raindancewx]

ONI came in at +0.7C for Apr-Jun 2019. 

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7

Here are monthly SSTs - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2018   7   27.42   27.26    0.16
2018   8   26.95   26.91    0.04
2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.83
2019   3   28.11   27.21    0.90
2019   4   28.46   27.73    0.72
2019   5   28.50   27.85    0.65
2019   6   28.25   27.65    0.60

My blend of 1966, 1966, 1987, 1992, 1993, 2015 for Summer had June at 28.20C in Nino 3.4

2015   6   28.90   27.65    1.25
1993   6   28.08   27.60    0.48
1992   6   28.30   27.60    0.70
1987   6   28.64   27.43    1.21
1966   6   27.63   27.35    0.29
1966   6   27.63   27.35    0.29

Analog Blend: 28.20C. 

Subsurface is fairly cold, but it is still warm near the surface and at the surface, so I think a slow cool down is likely for a few weeks at least.

[Diana]

On 1/8/2019 at 3:37 AM, raindancewx said:

For future reference, I will never go after anyone unless I'm directly provoked. Call it the Bugs Bunny rule.

Anyway, weeklies.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8

People seem to dislike it, but with the MJO behaving similarly to 1997 since December, there are at least some similarities for the first 40% of the winter. 1991-92 has been close too. Cold Maine, warm East. Hot Plains. Main problem with 1997 to date has been the SE. I put the others here - https://imgur.com/a/uhOjwhZ

 

This is very interesting.Thank you for the information.