2019 ENSO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look at this +Nino 1.2 cold-PDO difference in the last 7 days

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Classic El Nino looking pattern on the long range GFS

[raindancewx]

MJO has re-awakened for a jaunt through phases 2-3, for a week to ten days if the European is right. Cold signal for lots of the US in April.

SOI is still behaving like an El Nino for the most part. Models are trending to a storm over the SW around Monday/Tuesday in light of the big crash from 4/9 to 4/11 (35 points) or the 4/11 to 4/13 crash. You tend to get a low in the SW ten days after a big crash.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
20 Apr 2019	1010.44	1010.50	-17.67	-3.02	-7.02
19 Apr 2019	1011.70	1011.75	-17.59	-2.63	-6.77
18 Apr 2019	1013.01	1011.75	-8.15	-2.16	-6.47
17 Apr 2019	1012.26	1011.40	-11.03	-1.94	-6.26
16 Apr 2019	1012.95	1011.55	-7.14	-1.86	-6.12
15 Apr 2019	1013.08	1011.25	-4.04	-1.93	-6.12
14 Apr 2019	1011.39	1011.10	-15.14	-2.11	-6.13
13 Apr 2019	1009.59	1011.10	-28.12	-1.89	-6.01
12 Apr 2019	1009.69	1010.60	-23.80	-1.53	-5.80
11 Apr 2019	1010.80	1010.80	-17.23	-1.24	-5.60
10 Apr 2019	1012.52	1010.15	-0.15	-1.13	-5.38
9 Apr 2019	1013.55	1008.80	17.01	-1.68	-5.46
8 Apr 2019	1013.87	1008.10	24.37	-2.65	-5.67
7 Apr 2019	1013.79	1009.80	11.53	-3.68	-5.94
6 Apr 2019	1014.01	1009.70	13.84	-4.09	-6.12
5 Apr 2019	1013.83	1008.20	23.36	-4.81	-6.37
4 Apr 2019	1013.38	1008.60	17.23	-5.88	-6.84
3 Apr 2019	1013.08	1009.35	9.66	-6.60	-7.25
2 Apr 2019	1010.89	1009.65	-8.29	-6.99	-7.50
1 Apr 2019	1011.13	1009.35	-4.40	-6.89	-7.52

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 20MAR2019     26.6 0.2     28.1 0.9     28.4 1.1     29.1 0.9
 27MAR2019     25.9-0.2     27.9 0.7     28.4 1.0     29.1 0.9
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8
 17APR2019     25.5 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.8     29.3 0.8

Steady. Subsurface heat for 100-180W is back down to +0.7 after hitting +1.5 around 3/1 (page 11 on the link).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[raindancewx]

If the monthly figure in Nino 3.4 is above 28.52C - entirely possible as the monthly data is different than the weeklies - that's one of five warmest readings since 1950.

[raindancewx]

Doesn't look a La Nina is coming soon to me, but I do think a steady decline to Neutral conditions is pretty likely into late Summer or Fall now.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Pretty strong El Nino pattern coming up

I think we are still going into El Nino

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8
 17APR2019     25.5 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.8     29.3 0.8
 24APR2019     25.2 0.1     28.3 0.9     28.7 0.9     29.2 0.7

A 28.6C April in Nino 3.4 is pretty impressive. Here is a look at 2016 for comparison - barely warmer despite a much greater winter peak.

 06APR2016     27.1 1.3     28.8 1.4     28.9 1.3     29.3 0.9
 13APR2016     25.6 0.1     28.6 1.2     29.1 1.3     29.3 0.8
 20APR2016     24.7-0.6     28.0 0.6     28.9 1.1     29.4 0.8
 27APR2016     24.7-0.3     27.7 0.4     28.7 0.8     29.5 0.9

Warmer than April 2010 in Nino 3.4 and Nino 3 too.

 07APR2010     26.0 0.3     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.8     29.3 0.9
 14APR2010     26.6 1.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.7     29.2 0.7
 21APR2010     26.0 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 28APR2010     25.2 0.3     27.8 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.3 0.7

[raindancewx]

The newest Canadian run has El Nino continuing into next winter. It also shifted to a dramatically colder May in the Western half of the US. Has it as a basin-wide event now, instead of an east-central El Nino

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

As expected, we're getting this near-surface subsurface warming

[raindancewx]

The subsurface numbers for April came in at +0.65 - way day from prior months but still pretty positive. The six closest objective subsurface matches for Feb-Apr look almost identical to the Canadian temperature forecast in May, so that's likely a good forecast.

I'll post my Summer forecast in here around 5/10, but I think 1992/1993 need to be included as analogs given that April 1992 is the warmest Nino 3.4 reading on record (29.0C), and 1993 had all the flooding in the Plains, as well as a similar strength storm to the record-setting storm over KS/CO/NM in mid-March. May 2019 could end up substantially warmer in Nino 3.4 than Springs after the Super Ninos like 1983, 1998, 2016. 

Solar activity is still low but it does seem to be climbing now, with most recent months now up y/y. That has some implications for next year too. March/April warmth in Nino 3.4 are both very strong warm signals for the Southeast US in July.

[raindancewx]

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8

 

ONI update. Monthlies came in a bit lower than I thought, but still near the 28.6C on the weeklies.

2018   7   27.42   27.26    0.16
2018   8   26.95   26.91    0.04
2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.49   26.66    0.83
2019   3   28.11   27.21    0.90
2019   4   28.46   27.73    0.72

My analog blend for Summer is this - but I'm making a couple changes to it.

SST 3.4 Feb    Mar    Apr
1966    27.55   28.21   28.16
1966    27.55    28.21    28.16
1987    27.88    28.27    28.39
1992    28.53    28.66    29.02
1993    27.16    27.67    28.41
2015    27.17    27.75    28.52
            
Mean    27.64    28.13    28.44
2019    27.48   28.13   28.46

 

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8
 17APR2019     25.5 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.8     29.3 0.8
 24APR2019     25.2 0.1     28.3 0.9     28.7 0.9     29.2 0.7
 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

Cold water below the surface is expanding, and net subsurface heat continues to decline toward 0. Expecting ONI El Nino conditions (+0.5C v. long-term averages in Nino 3.4) to end by July.

[frd]

On 5/1/2019 at 8:36 PM, raindancewx said:

Solar activity is still low but it does seem to be climbing now, with most recent months now up y/y. That has some implications for next year too. March/April warmth in Nino 3.4 are both very strong warm signals for the Southeast US in July.

I read we are nowhere near the low point of the still progressing solar minimum.  

[raindancewx]

It's possible we aren't, but I know through Oct 2018, 50-months in a row had seen y/y declines, and in the past six months four months are up y/y by small amounts. I think it be about flat to erratically up for a bit. The last absolute minimum was right 2/2009 but sometimes the solar cycles are 10 years, 12, 9, or 13, and not 11.

I've been pretty happy with the pattern overall, we're coming up on our 8th month in a row with y/y declines in monthly high temperatures, almost unheard of in the last 100 years. The mountains still look white when I drive in to work, as they have since October. Here is a look at Taos Powderhorn y/y - the giant spike was the "Kansas Hurricane" / Bomb Cyclone of mid-March. Generally it does tend to be warm or dry here when the mountains retain substantial snow into June.

 

 

[griteater]

On 5/6/2019 at 7:30 PM, raindancewx said:

Cold water below the surface is expanding, and net subsurface heat continues to decline toward 0. Expecting ONI El Nino conditions (+0.5C v. long-term averages in Nino 3.4) to end by July.

A boost to subsurface warmth may be on the way...

From NOAA Weekly MJO Report (May 6) - "Some erosion of upper ocean heat content is apparent east of the Maritime Continent, but most noteworthy is a westerly wind burst appears underway near 150E. This is likely to trigger a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave to help reinforce the warm water availability for the low frequency state in the Pacific."

[raindancewx]

I honestly don't have a good read on the Fall yet. I think there will be some weakening for the next 4-6 weeks in an ONI sense, and then the event may re-develop. A lot of back to back El Nino winters see a brief return to Neutral SSTs in Summer or early Fall, 1976-77 / 1977-78, or 1968-69 / 1969-70 for example. Others keep on trucking like 2014-15, 2015-16, 1986-87, 1987-88 without a break, although 1987-88 was cold pretty early on below the surface in the 100-180W zone ahead of the big 1988 La Nina.

The six month AMO value for Nov-Apr did come in around +0.00, which is one of the reasons the country ended up so wet in recent months. Last time that happened was before May 2015, which (at the time) was the wettest month on record.

[raindancewx]

Looking at the forecast from last May, the European did pretty well, but the ENSO tended to come in on the low side of the plume. That's my guess for the next few months, given how April verified. I think there is one or two months mid-Summer with a +0.5C or so reading, and then maybe a rebound later on. If you look on Tropical Tidbits, there is definitely some thinning of the unusual warmth in Nino 3.4, at least for now. A low point around late May to June and then a gradual rebound in July is what I'd go with given this -

[raindancewx]

         https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03APR2019     25.9 0.0     28.2 0.8     28.5 0.9     29.1 0.8
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8
 17APR2019     25.5 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.8     29.3 0.8
 24APR2019     25.2 0.1     28.3 0.9     28.7 0.9     29.2 0.7
 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7

Some weakening at the surface as the cold pool expands. 

SOI/MJO may be favorable for a rebound soon, we'll see.  I went with this for Summer - whether the El Nino lasts or not officially, the long-lead correlation between MAM in Nino 3.4 and July-Sept US temps are pretty strong in some areas.   https://t.co/nXVKwXTHVt

[raindancewx]

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

The PDO rapidly rose in April, but for Nov-Apr, the value was +0.51. My winter forecast from 10/12 assumed it would be +0.4. So my method of blend Mar-Aug PDO values with Nino 1.2 in Oct worked pretty well again.

2018-11-01T00:00:00Z    -0.05
2018-12-01T00:00:00Z    0.52
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z    0.66
2019-02-01T00:00:00Z    0.46
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z    0.37
2019-04-01T00:00:00Z    1.07

Also, the Jamstec doesn't have a La Nina coming online anytime soon, but it does show a decay from El Nino to La Nina conditions in Summer. Has the US very hot the next three seasons, outside the SE in winter 2019-20.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is Weak La Nina, but the +PNA is stringent. Through the next 15 days, wonder why the disconnect.

[raindancewx]

Subsurface now has more cold water than warm water it looks like. Last frame. Still looks like sometime in June or July we'll fall below +0.5C in Nino 3.4 at least for a few weeks and it may start in May. MAM will still be in El Nino territory, probably AMJ too, but MJJ? I lean toward neutral.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The North Pacific looks very El Ninoish for the next 15 days. Subsurface is cooling. -OLR for the first time in a long time near 180W is going to keep us away from a +north Pacific Hadley cell though, despite neutral/negative ENSO.

[raindancewx]

Been a long time since I can remember that much cold water off the coast of Western Mexico. If the PDO is warm in Mar-Aug (and it looks like it will be), with Nino 1.2 near normal that has some interesting implications for next year. The PDO was kind of a mess for the entire Oct-Mar period.

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 10APR2019     25.8 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.9     29.2 0.8
 17APR2019     25.5 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.6 0.8     29.3 0.8
 24APR2019     25.2 0.1     28.3 0.9     28.7 0.9     29.2 0.7
 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 15MAY2019     24.1-0.1     27.5 0.4     28.5 0.7     29.5 0.8

Colder water is surfacing in the Eastern zones. Nino 3.4 still in El Nino territory.

[raindancewx]

Severe weather outbreaks this month seem at least partially tied to the big SOI drops, which tend to put big time storms in the SW in 10 days. The big SOI drop 4/10-4/11 correspond well to the storm today. Snowed in Gallup and Grants today in NM, down to 5,000-6,000 feet, which is pretty rare in late May. A lot of areas have seen eight months in a row of measurable snow at fairly low elevations here.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
20 May 2019	1013.32	1012.95	-8.87	-3.45	-5.56
19 May 2019	1014.04	1012.65	-1.05	-3.74	-5.94
18 May 2019	1014.49	1011.55	10.82	-4.29	-6.33
17 May 2019	1014.27	1010.80	14.88	-4.93	-6.78
16 May 2019	1013.74	1011.85	2.78	-5.79	-7.22
15 May 2019	1013.99	1012.80	-2.59	-6.12	-7.41
14 May 2019	1013.40	1013.15	-9.79	-6.17	-7.60
13 May 2019	1013.23	1013.55	-14.15	-6.35	-7.77
12 May 2019	1013.29	1014.60	-21.74	-6.81	-7.87
11 May 2019	1013.09	1014.50	-22.50	-6.88	-7.84
10 May 2019	1012.54	1011.65	-4.88	-6.71	-7.68
9 May 2019	1011.36	1010.75	-7.03	-6.55	-7.65
8 May 2019	1010.13	1010.55	-14.92	-5.75	-7.69
7 May 2019	1010.34	1010.60	-13.69	-4.44	-7.61
6 May 2019	1011.67	1010.80	-5.04	-3.60	-7.44
5 May 2019	1012.81	1011.25	0.25	-2.97	-7.38
4 May 2019	1013.24	1011.65	0.48	-2.20	-7.39
3 May 2019	1013.43	1011.90	0.02	-1.64	-7.39
2 May 2019	1013.61	1010.55	11.74	-1.32	-7.44
1 May 2019	1012.41	1009.70	9.06	-1.99	-7.49

Near Gallup, NM....May 20th.

[raindancewx]

MJO looks like it will start June in phase 2 at fairly high amplitude.

That's a bit similar to a blend of 1986, 1987, 2001 if you just go by the MJO amplitude and timing. Not super dis-similar as a blend to my analogs or to what the CFS shows. If you look at where the core of the wetness has been in May, you'd probably shift the blue area a bit north, like the CFS has it.

 

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01MAY2019     25.1 0.3     28.1 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.4 0.7
 08MAY2019     24.6 0.1     27.7 0.5     28.3 0.5     29.4 0.7
 15MAY2019     24.1-0.1     27.5 0.4     28.5 0.7     29.5 0.8
 22MAY2019     24.5 0.6     27.7 0.7     28.7 0.8     29.7 0.9

28.6C in Nino 3.4 for May? Some similar Mays would be 1957, 1982, 1987, 1993, 1997, 1998. Those are 28.6C +/-0.2C. 1983, 1992 and 2015 are the Mays that are above 28.8C since 1950 in Nino 3.4. Of the years, 1957 looks close to what I expect for June. 1982, 1993, 1997 is too cold, 1987 is too warm, and 1998 is just wrong looking. 1983, 1992 are also too cold. June 2015 doesn't look super far off. A blend of 1957, 1987, 1993, 2015 might be about right, if 1957/1993 are given extra weight. 

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Somewhat of a subsurface recovery, we are still in El Nino. I wouldn't be surprised for Nino 3.4 to warm in the next few weeks.

[raindancewx]

Heat off the SE US this Spring is about as anomalously warm as any patch of waters on the Earth.