raindancewx Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Next big wave of heat is arriving to the eastern Nino zones from below now. The SOI is around -6.5 for March. Looks like some positive and negative days are coming by 3/31 so it won't change too much. Similar JFM periods, tentatively - July-June Jan Feb Mar Top Match 2002 -2.0 -9.3 -6.6 5.6 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 5.8 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 8.0 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 11.6 1947 -3.6 -3.7 -4.6 14.2 1977 -3.6 -26.9 -6.0 14.2 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 14.2 Something like this blend works pretty well for where March is now. July-Jun Jan Feb Mar 1989 -1.9 -18.4 -8.2 1972 -3.6 -15.0 -0.3 2009 -8.3 -18.2 -10.8 1952 1.6 -7.1 -6.0 Blend -3.1 -14.7 -6.3 2018 -2.2 -14.6 -6.5 Also, it is close to what the CFS shows for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 24, 2019 Author Share Posted March 24, 2019 Again, it's currently the 5-month lowest SOI since 1997: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for Subsurface heat transition for Jan, Feb, Mar is most similar to early 1990. Below surface heat of +1.5 as I've estimated for March would be third warmest in March since 1979. Anything above +1.6 is the warmest March since 1979 but going by the image, doesn't look like we hit that. Year Jan Feb Mar Distance 2019 0.76 1.10 1.50 0.00 1990 0.78 1.08 1.14 0.40 1997 0.56 1.00 1.17 0.63 2015 0.15 0.83 1.52 0.90 2005 0.52 0.59 1.27 0.98 2010 1.14 1.24 0.97 1.05 2002 0.95 0.78 0.55 1.46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 26, 2019 Author Share Posted March 26, 2019 I wonder if we'll see another Kelvin Wave in early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 27, 2019 Author Share Posted March 27, 2019 Look at this, classic +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 28, 2019 Author Share Posted March 28, 2019 Really weak subsurface now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 30, 2019 Author Share Posted March 30, 2019 I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 8 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I'm seriously questioning the continuation of El Nino with today's subsurface, cold making it to 120W, and +2 at 150Evscold 180-170 Believe who was monitoring this site retired?I can't remember his name but i'd use caution using this site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 I don't understand this. The two graphs for actual temperature look pretty similar, but the anomaly graphs are very different. Can someone please help me understand how that happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 31, 2019 Author Share Posted March 31, 2019 Really classic El Nino signature in the North Pacific like we haven't seen in a while. Reminds me of the late 70s. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted March 31, 2019 Share Posted March 31, 2019 SOI finished March at -6.5, listed some SOI analogs back on 3/24 CFS currently has a very warm April nationally with some weakness in the heat in the West. Canadian should be out later today with another idea for April and a new read on the El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 31, 2019 Author Share Posted March 31, 2019 8 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Believe who was monitoring this site retired?I can't remember his name but i'd use caution using this site. It's correct. I wouldn't doubt some colder waters popping up in the eastern regions in a few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 The new Canadian run has a very warm US in April like the CFS does. It continues the current El Nino into next winter, which is a warmer forecast than before. Eastern US trended much drier for April too. The CPC cool zone is right where Nino 3.4 March SSTs are strongest as a cool signal for April temps. Nino 3.4 was likely around 28.2C in March, pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 1, 2019 Share Posted April 1, 2019 March in Nino 3.4 is likely +1.0C - about 28.2C (CPC uses 27.2C as average in Nino 3.4 in March) Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 Subsurface heat is declining again now, but +1.42 in March - third highest since 1979. The look on the weeklies now is the most "Modoki" look since Fall. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt Warm Nino 3.4 March is a strong warm signal in the SE in July. These are the 28.0C-28.4C Nino 3.4 Marches since 1950: 2010 1966 1958 1987 Not an exact match, but it looks close to the correlation blend for temps. I'll post my Summer Outlook on here in mid-May once I get a sense of what April does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 1, 2019 Author Share Posted April 1, 2019 AO will finish above 1.00 for February and March.. The last 2 times that happened were 2015 and 1997, 2 Strongest Nino's. 1982, the third Strongest, was two months above 0.97. 89-90 and 90-91 did and they both had -SOI or -NOI something characteristics of the phase.. 67-68 is the other example and that was a Weak Nino. Two months above 0.9 includes 02-03 which was Moderate El Nino, and 92-93 which I consider a Weak Nino (subsurface). 8/8 had something-characteristics-aspects of the phase in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 2, 2019 Share Posted April 2, 2019 Going into next year, it will be interesting to see what the sun does. On a y/y basis, monthly sunspots were up by 7 in March, after being up in November and January. There has not been a double El Nino with low solar activity each time since 1952-53/1953-54, or 1913-14/1914-15 depending on what criteria you use for an El Nino. My threshold for low solar activity is a July-Jun average of 50 sunspots or less, that seems to be the threshold when effects show up if you use a ROC predictive analysis for false positives/false negatives. Also, its been interesting looking at snow anomalies this year v. in a standard El Nino - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 The subsurface warmth below the surface may be weakening some with the warmth surfacing now. My hunch is by the official metrics we stay in El Nino territory into June or so, and then stay in Neutral. I don't have a good sense for next winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 3, 2019 Share Posted April 3, 2019 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 El Nino is official. March was 28.13C, +0.93C using the CPC standard. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt 2018 9 27.19 26.80 0.39 2018 10 27.62 26.75 0.86 2018 11 27.61 26.75 0.86 2018 12 27.49 26.65 0.84 2019 1 27.21 26.45 0.76 2019 2 27.49 26.66 0.83 2019 3 28.14 27.21 0.93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 3, 2019 Author Share Posted April 3, 2019 Sometimes it does this, becomes a purely surface-based movement. We saw this in 1982, 1972, 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 6, 2019 Share Posted April 6, 2019 There is a new MEI data set out there now, for anyone interested since Klaus Wolter retired. SOI should see a big drop in the next few days if the Euro MSLP forecasts are right. The -NAO forecast over the next few days is a fairly strong cold signal for cold in New Mexico in June, and the West generally in May. Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 8, 2019 Share Posted April 8, 2019 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06FEB2019 25.9 0.3 26.5 0.4 27.1 0.4 29.0 0.8 13FEB2019 26.6 0.6 26.8 0.5 27.3 0.6 29.0 0.9 20FEB2019 26.4 0.2 27.0 0.5 27.5 0.7 29.1 1.0 27FEB2019 26.6 0.4 27.6 1.0 28.0 1.1 29.2 1.1 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 El Nino through at least FMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 9, 2019 Author Share Posted April 9, 2019 Just like pretty much every El Nino after 97-00.. Warm Nino 4, cold 1.2. 6/7. La Nina's are colder in the east (Nino 3) too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 10, 2019 Author Share Posted April 10, 2019 Look at how this El Nino has just completely collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Big SOI drop recently. Drop is comparable to the one ahead of the Blizzard of 1993 Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI 10 Apr 2019 1012.52 1010.15 -0.15 -1.13 -5.38 9 Apr 2019 1013.55 1008.80 17.01 -1.68 -5.46 8 Apr 2019 1013.87 1008.10 24.37 -2.65 -5.67 7 Apr 2019 1013.79 1009.80 11.53 -3.68 -5.94 6 Apr 2019 1014.01 1009.70 13.84 -4.09 -6.12 5 Apr 2019 1013.83 1008.20 23.36 -4.81 -6.37 4 Apr 2019 1013.38 1008.60 17.23 -5.88 -6.84 3 Apr 2019 1013.08 1009.35 9.66 -6.60 -7.25 2 Apr 2019 1010.89 1009.65 -8.29 -6.99 -7.50 1 Apr 2019 1011.13 1009.35 -4.40 -6.89 -7.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 12, 2019 Author Share Posted April 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 European April run is pretty confident on El Nino continuing (above black line) into July, but doesn't have a good read on what will happen after - either rapid weakening or re-strengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 Still a chance.. we basically didn't see +PNA at all, not even for 1 day in many years of no-El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 Nate Mantua sent out the March PDO value for 2019 the other day, and their new website. PDO Index values for 2019 January 0.66 February 0.46 March 0.37 The updated and full UW-JISAO version of the PDO index is now available online at: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO Nate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted April 15, 2019 Share Posted April 15, 2019 Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 06MAR2019 26.8 0.5 27.8 0.9 28.0 1.0 29.1 0.9 13MAR2019 27.1 0.7 27.7 0.7 28.1 1.0 29.0 0.8 20MAR2019 26.6 0.2 28.1 0.9 28.4 1.1 29.1 0.9 27MAR2019 25.9-0.2 27.9 0.7 28.4 1.0 29.1 0.9 03APR2019 25.9 0.0 28.2 0.8 28.5 0.9 29.1 0.8 10APR2019 25.8 0.1 28.2 0.7 28.6 0.9 29.2 0.8 Still solidly in El Nino territory. That said, the warmth below the surface is thinning rapidly now and some cool water is showing up. I'm in the camp that this event stays above the +0.5C threshold at the surface longer than most El Ninos, into June or July, but not convinced it lasts after that. Could redevelop in Fall, but I think we're about due for an extended Neutral period, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 16, 2019 Author Share Posted April 16, 2019 It might just recenter West and ramp up for a Fall-Winter 2019-2020 El Nino Get some cold 1.2 readings over the Summertime for hurricane season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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