2019 ENSO

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Really solid El Nino developing now.

[roardog]

Isn’t it unusual though for a second year El Niño to just keep strengthening through Spring right into Summer and Autumn? Doesn’t it usually dissipate a bit during the Spring before re-organizing during the Summer and Autumn? 

[raindancewx]

I'd say this El Nino did weaken in Dec/Jan depending on the indicator you use. The +9.1 SOI never should of happened in an El Nino December. The weeklies also dropped below +0.5 for a bit before recovering. The double El Ninos do seem to have at least a brief weakening like you said, but it was a bit strange to see that happen in Dec/Jan this year.

                           Nino 1.2          Nino 3             Nino 3.4            Nino 4

 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8

In 2015, you had the El Nino essentially die for a couple weeks in February in Nino 3. 

2015   1   27.06   26.45    0.61
2015   2   27.18   26.66    0.52
2015   3   27.77   27.21    0.56
2015   4   28.53   27.73    0.79

Week              Nino 1.2     Nino 3       Nino 3.4      Nino 4

 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0
 28JAN2015     24.8-0.3     26.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.1 0.9
 04FEB2015     25.0-0.5     26.2 0.1     27.2 0.5     29.1 0.9
 11FEB2015     25.1-0.8     26.6 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.0 0.9
 18FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.7 0.3     27.3 0.5     29.0 1.0
 25FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.8 0.1     27.5 0.6     29.3 1.2
 04MAR2015    25.8-0.5     26.9 0.1     27.5 0.5     29.3 1.1

1987 weakened too, briefly.

1986  12   27.71   26.47    1.24
1987   1   27.68   26.46    1.22
1987   2   27.89   26.66    1.23
1987   3   28.27   27.14    1.13
1987   4   28.40   27.58    0.82
1987   5   28.56   27.68    0.88
1987   6   28.64   27.43    1.21

1976-77 definitely died for a bit -

1976  12   27.08   26.43    0.66
1977   1   27.32   26.39    0.93
1977   2   27.13   26.59    0.55
1977   3   27.48   27.04    0.44
1977   4   27.45   27.42    0.03
1977   5   27.72   27.51    0.22

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's the lowest 5-month SOI since 1997. 

That was February. We could easily break 1982 and 1997 SOI-wise if the El Nino strengthens in the Spring. 

Check out the Indian Ocean signal. 

[raindancewx]

Euro has the El Nino remaining pretty strong into Summer and Fall now. Hardly any members go below El Nino territory. Most members are above +0.8C from now through Fall, each month.

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It looks like, on the 18z GFS, that the subsurface wave is still going strong Day 15+.

[raindancewx]

I'll be looking for a big storm in about ten days given the recent SOI drop from 3/8 to 3/10. The models were hinting at the MJO winding back to phase 2/3 around that time earlier in the week, but it doesn't look too likely now.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
10 Mar 2019	1010.20	1008.60	-12.02	-14.73	-3.25
9 Mar 2019	1011.85	1009.10	-6.51	-14.67	-3.11
8 Mar 2019	1013.00	1009.05	-0.77	-14.71	-3.07
7 Mar 2019	1011.27	1008.80	-7.85	-14.63	-3.04
6 Mar 2019	1010.75	1008.45	-8.66	-14.35	-2.88
5 Mar 2019	1011.65	1008.45	-4.36	-14.10	-2.72
4 Mar 2019	1011.81	1008.15	-2.15	-13.94	-2.58
3 Mar 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-5.22	-14.00	-2.53
2 Mar 2019	1012.17	1008.75	-3.30	-13.59	-2.38
1 Mar 2019	1014.11	1009.00	4.79	-13.48	-2.19

A big -SOI in March is a fairly strong cold signal for Texas. Warm for Washington state. Fairly strong dry signal for the Western Dakotas, and a wet signal for the mountains of Virginia. Last March the SOI was very positive, right now it is -4.6, and it looks volatile but primarily negative for the next week at least. With these maps, the lightest greens and lightest blues tend to get overwhelmed by other factors, but the darker shades usually "win" so to speak.

May is actually very strongly correlated to March Nino 3.4 temps in the NW, its a very strong signal for warmth in Washington and in the NW generally. Less strong as a cold signal in May for other areas.

[Great Snow 1717]

18 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Euro has the El Nino remaining pretty strong into Summer and Fall now. Hardly any members go below El Nino territory. Most members are above +0.8C from now through Fall, each month.

 

And some in the SNE subforum will deny the existence of an El Nino this winter.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface warm pool is now weakening. It will probably peak at the surface for another 1-2 weeks, but we look to be heading straight toward Neutral/Weak Nino.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8
 13FEB2019     26.6 0.6     26.8 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.0 0.9
 20FEB2019     26.4 0.2     27.0 0.5     27.5 0.7     29.1 1.0
 27FEB2019     26.6 0.4     27.6 1.0     28.0 1.1     29.2 1.1
 06MAR2019     26.8 0.5     27.8 0.9     28.0 1.0     29.1 0.9

The MJO is pretty similar to October right now, which is when this event ramped up, before weakening, so some weakening after March wouldn't be too surprising.

Heat content is all the way back to October levels though -

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Last year at this time was actually more of a developing El Nino than this year

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is a pretty healthy -1 subsurface wave making it to 180W.. chances for La Nina go up.

[raindancewx]

Here is a list of what happened in years following a 27.4C El Nino in Dec-Feb (Nino 3.4), give or take +0.4C. For years prior to 1950, I correlate the 1950-2019 data when both are available and then "convert" the pre-1950 to what it would look like on the 1950- data.

El N    ONI    ONI+
1939    27.44    27.96
1941    27.38    25.31
1953    27.00    25.56
1963    27.36    25.69
1965    27.73    26.01
1968    27.54    26.92
1976    27.18    27.15
1977    27.15    26.49
1979    27.05    26.31
1986    27.76    27.34
1987    27.34    24.83
1990    27.02    28.40
1994    27.64    25.74
2002    27.50    26.94
2004    27.22    25.80
2006    27.29    24.98
2014    27.18    29.13
2018    27.38    

There is something of a warm signal in the West for winters after El Ninos, with a bit of a cold signal in the Central Plains, South and NE.

El Ninos after similar Nino 3.4 composites to this year (1940-41, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1987-88, 1991-92, 2015-16. I'll add in 2003-04 too, close enough to an El Nino for this).

La Nina after similar strength El Ninos (with 1966-67, close enough). Worth noting, unlike literally all the El Ninos which are high solar, these La Ninas are almost all low solar.

You'll notice the composites are dry in both cases for the interior South, which is consistent with winters following El Ninos being dry in that zone (blue = negative correlation to heavy precip following high Nino 3.4 readings). California does pretty well either way.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is warming again.. another day lol

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Now weakening.. this is a 5 day average. 

[raindancewx]

The JAMSTEC update is out. Went to a very warm Spring nationally. Still has an El Nino through Spring. It shows a cold neutral setup in Nino 3.4 in Fall.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Return to +AAM on long range models, which you see in the late Winter of 2-year El Nino's (1952, 1987, 2015). 

(This is a +signal, that is like El Nino but global.)

[raindancewx]

Given that the PDO is still neutral/negative it will be interesting to see what happens if another El Nino develops next winter, of if this one lasts for another year. My hunch is the current El Nino breaks up briefly later in the Summer, and then after that the real pattern for next winter will develop.

 

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looking at this latest subsurface, we might not hold the warming, and with cooler waters moving to 170W, it could eventually go Neutral/-Neutral. Long term models today popped a -PNA for the first time. 

 

I was thinking that looking at subsurface, but most of the Strong Nino's actually didn't have the subsurface lead. May 1982 was weaker than we are now. It's my hunch that the El Nino will go on Weak-Moderate-Strong, but not to 15-16 or 97-98 levels. 

[raindancewx]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 27FEB2019     26.6 0.4     27.6 1.0     28.0 1.1     29.2 1.1
 06MAR2019     26.8 0.5     27.8 0.9     28.0 1.0     29.1 0.9
 13MAR2019     27.1 0.7     27.7 0.7     28.1 1.0     29.0 0.8

Subsurface heat is leveling off. Current values are like 2009-10 but more basin wide than 3/2010.

 03MAR2010     26.3-0.1     27.5 0.7     28.1 1.1     29.2 1.0
 10MAR2010     26.0-0.4     27.5 0.5     28.3 1.2     29.3 1.1
 17MAR2010     26.2-0.3     27.8 0.7     28.4 1.1     29.2 1.1
 24MAR2010     26.3 0.0     27.9 0.7     28.4 1.0     29.2 0.9

[Great Snow 1717]

I find it interesting that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has moved the El Nino watch to an alert. According to what I read that means they think there is a 70% chance of an El Nino developing in 2019.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The subsurface configuration looks like a healthy-Spring Nino. I expect aesthetic balance to develop at the surface shortly. 

[raindancewx]

Nate Mantua (JISAO) sent out the PDO values earlier this week.

Nov 2018: -0.05

Dec 2018: +0.52

Jan 2019: +0.66

Feb 2019: +0.46

Nov-Feb mean: +0.40

I mentioned in the other thread that October Nino 1.2 readings blended with the PDO mean from Mar-Aug is a good indicator, and that blend implied a +0.4 PDO for Nov-Apr. 

Correlations to SE US cold and the PDO are actually stronger than correlations to SE cold and Nino 3.4 temps / SOI conditions. So it's been interesting seeing the PDO come in near 0 month after month. You can compare that to Nov-Apr 2014-15 when the PDO was near +2 despite similar SSTs in Nino 3.4 in winter.

 

[thunderbolt]

On Wed Mar 13 2019 at 1:19 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

This is a pretty healthy -1 subsurface wave making it to 180W.. chances for La Nina go up.

When?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Big time -NOI coming up, similar to the 4-year subsurface El Nino of 1992-1995:

I expect a big SOI drop, as usually what happens when the NOI goes super negative. 

https://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/NOIx/noix.html

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

+NOI continues on models for about 12 days. I remember researching this, and finding a very strong correlation between late March/April NOI and seasonal ENSO cycle (healthy events). (PDO link too)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

IO (MJO)

[raindancewx]

On the last ENSO weekly update, it looked like the subsurface heat for 100-180W was leveling off at around +1.6. Will be interesting to see what happens next. Reading of +1 or -1 v. the long-term Nino 3.4 averages are much more impressive in Spring than in Winter historically.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Check this out for the coming -NOI, it has the dual-opposite Pacific-Atlantic pattern of EPO-PNA/NAO.

April NOI is important for Moderate El Nino's.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look at this nice +PNA though. We didn't see the North Pacific trough cut so far SW in the last El Nino. Pattern change.