2019 ENSO

[raindancewx]

Nino 3 isn't really cold enough to be considered a La Nina now. But Nino 3.4 is - although it warmed to above -1.0C in January on the 1981-2010 comparison. Nino 4 cooled.

I'm expecting the monthly data to be 25.6C or so in Nino 3.4, around -0.9C for 1951-2010 averages. Not really that cold. But the waters in Nino 4 still look like they'll be around 27.0C, which is very cold for that zone.

 

[raindancewx]

The ONI for NDJ came in at -1.18C against the 30-year baseline CPC uses.

Against 1951-2010 averages, I get -1.03C. So still two full three-month periods in a row at moderate status by historical standards. Both Oct-Dec and Nov-Jan qualify.

Worth noting though: The reading for January in Nino 3.4 is 25.56C. It was 25.57C in January 2018. So it isn't like this La Nina is of vastly different strength to that one. It certainly was much stronger in the Fall. Obviously 2020-21 is much colder in Nino 4 too, while 2017-18 was much colder in Nino 1.2/3.

My winter blend had January at -0.85C against the 1951-2010 average, and the observed was -0.89C. So this event is progressing as expected. 

Nino 4 and the other monthly data should be in soon. 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Still a pretty strong La Nina signature if you ask me. It might fizzle out into the Spring.

[StormchaserChuck!]

(I wonder if falls in the SD of random though)Probably

 

[raindancewx]

Euro still has the La Nina ending in March. In April, both Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 are forecast by most ensemble members to rise above the blue line, which is -0.5C / La Nina.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I wouldn't be surprised if a Weak El Nino develops in the Spring.. Nothing stronger, like Moderate or Strong though. I have an intuition for La Nina conditions/-PDO through 2021-2024... maybe not, maybe I'm just feeling the -NAO

[raindancewx]

The monthly data from CPC isn't in yet. Usually is by now. Think they are probably updating everything to the new 30-year normals (1991-2020).
For now, more warming. Nino 1.2 averages are cold-neutral for the past month now. Nino 3 is averaging -0.5 for the past month. 

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 30DEC2020     22.2-1.3     24.4-1.0     25.4-1.2     27.3-1.2
 06JAN2021     23.1-0.8     24.7-0.8     25.5-1.1     27.1-1.3
 13JAN2021     24.0-0.3     24.7-0.9     25.4-1.2     27.0-1.3
 20JAN2021     23.9-0.8     25.2-0.6     25.5-1.1     26.9-1.4
 27JAN2021     24.6-0.5     25.7-0.2     25.9-0.7     27.1-1.1
 03FEB2021     25.3-0.2     25.8-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.2-1.1

[raindancewx]

The Jamstec tries to develop a weak El Nino from the east in Spring on the new update. But it then collapses in Fall. Very similar to 2012.

[Eric11]

15 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Jamstec tries to develop a weak El Nino from the east in Spring on the new update. But it then collapses in Fall. Very similar to 2012.

Though it's too early for us to head into the Spring Barrier time, looks like there's a major difference between NMME and Jamstec

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Just amazing for what's going on at the surface.. a legit La Nina

[raindancewx]

I've been looking hard at Spring 1979 as an analog lately just because it

a) followed two El Ninos that were weak with fairly low solar conditions (1976-77, 1977-78)

b) It is a cold ENSO winter that had a super +NAO in Nov transition to pretty negative in Dec-Jan.

c) Vaguely looks like February nationally for temperatures (in the Eastern 2/3 of the US, and if warmed up a bit)

I don't consider 1979-80 an El Nino. It's borderline - I think it's about the limit on the warm side for what we could see next winter. I lean toward flat Neutral with Nino 4 staying fairly cold but we'll see.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I'm on Kelvin wave watch for the Spring. 

[raindancewx]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for  This site hasn't updated for me in a while. But the weekly data is here - 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Nino 1.2: -0.5C

Nino 3: -0.9C

Nino 3.4: -1.2C

Nino 4: -1.2C

Still west-based. Subsurface still looks it peaked Halloween. Lower winter peak in January.

[raindancewx]

Nate Mantua PDO: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2020-11-01T00:00:00Z	-1.12
2020-12-01T00:00:00Z	-0.9
2021-01-01T00:00:00Z	-0.16

Still trending down overall.

2019-11-01T00:00:00Z	0.15
2019-12-01T00:00:00Z	0.97
2020-01-01T00:00:00Z	-0.23

 

[CheeselandSkies]