2019 ENSO

[raindancewx]

How many of you had snow in Las Vegas and Los Angeles this winter? People are going nuts about the snow in LA on social media.

 

[raindancewx]

Through 2/22 the February SOI is down to near -16, the threshold our Kangaroo Buddies consider Strong El Nino territory. Another big Kelvin Wave is heading east and "up" just in time for March. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

36 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Through 2/22 the February SOI is down to near -16, the threshold our Kangaroo Buddies consider Strong El Nino territory. Another big Kelvin Wave is heading east and "up" just in time for March. 

You win.

[raindancewx]

SOI is near -16 through 2/23. With only 5 days left in February, it's pretty to safe to assume it will be below -10 in February. The SOI would have to be +12 the rest of the February just to get to -10.7.

I've been toying around with the SOI transitions, and if we really do end up at -12, -14, -16, -18 for February, you have to respect that in the data. But I don't think its correct to ignore the +9 in December either, given it has popped up the SE heat as you'd expect in February via correlations (several days near 90F in Florida already). Something like this may be appropriate for March.

SOI	Dec	Jan	Feb
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
2004	-10.1	1.2	-29.5
2011	22.2	9.6	0.8
2011	22.2	9.6	0.8
Mean	7.8	-0.2	-10.4
2018	9.1	-2.1	-15.7

Statistically, when October is wetter than September in the SW, March tends to be less dry (p<0.05). The effect is strongest in preventing exceptionally dry Marches in Albuquerque as we've never had a precipitation free March in a year when October was wetter than September, in 36 tries, while it is relatively common if September is wetter than October. Since 2006, only 2008, 2009 and 2011 have had a wetter October than September in New Mexico, so will be interesting to see what happens. No wet Marches for most of NM/AZ outside the far north since 2007.

If you guys are in need of a snow fix, the local ski resorts have 40-90 inch bases now. Most of the mountains in the SW have already passed their annual snow totals, and March/April can be very good months.

[raindancewx]

Nino 1.2 was the coldest it had been since 1985 in February (25.13C). The March temperature pattern largely reflected that, with the NW somewhat offset by the very -SOI in February which is a strong indicator for March in Washington. We'll see what the weeklies show for the next two weeks, but jumping up to 26.0-26.5C in February seems like a pretty safe bet to warm up the areas above the black line, especially the NW and Lakes. Worth noting that 2011-12 had a 20 point SOI drop from Dec 2011 to Feb 2012, and similar Nino 1.2 readings in Feb 2019 (26.5C).

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8
 13FEB2019     26.6 0.6     26.8 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.0 0.9

[raindancewx]

March still looks promising for the El Nino given rising subsurface heat, so we should easily clear five trimesters above +0.5C
in Nino 3.4.

https://imgur.com/copmt4o

Weekly data is centered, i.e. 2/20 is through 2/23. The 12-week average for Nino 3.4 is 27.3C, and CPC uses a DJF average of 
26.58C for Nino 3.4.  For Dec/Jan, CPC reported slightly different monthly numbers 27.49C (Dec), 27.25C (Jan). February is likely
27.3C (+/-0.15C) on the monthly data. February base is 26.66C according to CPC, so that's still El Nino territory, around +0.65C.
ONI will be around +0.7C for DJF. Nino 4 near record territory for Feb warmth is strongly correlated to wetness in the Plains/SW 
in March, it didn't work in 2016 (snowed near Guadalajara), but we're not quite that warm, it's closer to 2010, 2005, 2003, 2015,
1958, 1995, 1998, etc.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8
 13FEB2019     26.6 0.6     26.8 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.0 0.9
 20FEB2019     26.4 0.2     27.0 0.5     27.5 0.7     29.1 1.0

[raindancewx]

The SOI is going to finish February somewhere around -15, pretty impressive turn around from +9 in December.

There are no strong, objective SOI matches for the Dec-Feb period, but these are the closest. I should note: 1989 is probably going to be the strongest subsurface match for 100-180W, since 1979 for Dec-Feb.

Distance	SOI	Dec	Jan	Feb
0.0	2018	9.1	-2.1	-15
17.8	1959	6.9	0.2	-1.7
18.0	1989	-5.3	-1.9	-18.4
18.0	1947	3.9	-3.6	-3.7
18.4	1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
19.0	1956	8.5	4.5	-3.2

In terms of actually matching the SOI in the three month period, I think this is much closer -

Top SOI Match for March
SOI	Dec	Jan	Feb
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
1969	2.3	-10.8	-12.1
2004	-10.1	1.2	-29.5
2011	22.2	9.6	0.8
2011	22.2	9.6	0.8
Mean	7.8	-0.2	-10.4
2018	9.1	-2.1	-15.0

My hunch is March 1975 will end up pretty close for March 2019, they're linked in the solar cycle too (1975 + 11*4). The Dec/Jan and Feb patterns are pretty close, and early March 1975 also looks close to what is forecast for temps nationally. It's not a bad MJO match either. La Nina...but it had coupling problems (big -SOI showed up), and it was a La Nina far warmer than 1973-74 in Nino 3.4 year/year.

 

I do it expect at least some areas of the US to be warmer than March 1975, but the "look" seems about right.

[raindancewx]

The new Canadian is in. Trended stronger for El Nino in Spring, which makes sense given the slow warming at the surface and below it recently. It has a basin wide look and a colder tropical Atlantic too which is interesting for the hurricane season set up. The relative warmth nationally compared to what is coming the next few days implies a big warm up later in the month, which is consistent with the activity in the Indian Ocean (convection) which showed up before the big December warm up.

Here is what it has for Spring temps in the US - 

March looks pretty similar to the CFS for temps and precip. 

[raindancewx]

I think the ONI number will be in soon since the CPC ONI site is down, but for now, the subsurface warmed up to +1.07 in the 100-180W zone. Most similar DJF transition for the subsurface is 1989-90.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

-PNA, you don't see this in El Nino, but Neutral. 

You do see this N Pacific pattern in El Nino. It will be interesting to see if a new Kelvin Wave develops in 10-15 days. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is pretty significant. 

[raindancewx]

In a month or two this may go back to having an East based look, at least for a little while. That cold blotch east of 100W is surrounded by warmth.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

 

In a month or two this may go back to having an East based look, at least for a little while. That cold blotch east of 100W is surrounded by warmth.

The North Pacific is not acting like El Nino at all despite El Nino conditions in the subsurface.. this was completely different,connected until about 6-9 months ago. 

[raindancewx]

The North Pacific in Fall kind of reminded me of a warmed up 1994-95 honestly. Very warm waters east of Japan that winter too. Atlantic not super different either. My blend +0.1C wasn't too bad for winter. El Nino structure was right, with the Atlantic the cool spot in the Northern Hemisphere.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is pretty cool.. I posted earlier that there is an inverse correlation between February SOI and the next years ENSO state. AAM is something like rotational speed of the Earth, faster in El Nino, slower in La Nina. AAM can been in 500mb heights as this:

Febuary 15-28 2019 has been -AAM (what you usually see in La Nina)

Check out these strong El Nino developing analogs and what happened Feb 15-28 AAM-wise. 

All were -AAM.

[raindancewx]

I'm very curious to see what CPC has for February Nino 3.4 data. I think it's +0.7C or so, but we'll see. The MJO for 10/1-10/16 is similar to 2/24-3/9, i.e. migration through 1-2-3 and then the wave goes null for a bit.

I can't find any Marches on record in Albuquerque without at least one or more days with a high of 54F or less, so I'm on board with what CPC shows in the long-range, cold gradually retrogressing to the West. March 1975 started very warm in the Southwest, like this year, before cooling. It had the big +SOI in Dec, and then a -SOI in January. Big warm up (+1.3C) in Nino 3.4 from the much stronger La Nina of 1973-74. The rains depicted on the GFS for 3/8/2019 in New Mexico are consistent with the first good storm of 3/1975 - also on 3/8. None of the plants or trees are in bloom yet here - so I suspect there is more severe cold (for Spring) yet to come.

In 2018, the SOI went very negative in February and then popped positive in March (-7.7 to +8.4). Doesn't look likely this year - so March should end up pretty different nationally. On the European, the SOI looks pretty negative overall for the next week, with a neutral day or two thrown in.

[raindancewx]

February saw a steady anomaly in Nino 3.4 on the CPC data - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

YR   MON  TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 

2018   9   27.19   26.80    0.39
2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.21   26.45    0.76
2019   2   27.45   26.66    0.78

For DJF 2018-19, that's a 27.38C El Nino.

My analogs for winter were 1953-54, 1976-77, 1986-87, 1994-95, 1994-95, 2006-07. Blended together, that was a 27.4C El Nino too.

1953  12   27.01   26.18    0.83
1954   1   26.98   26.18    0.80
1954   2   27.03   26.39    0.64

1976  12   27.08   26.43    0.66
1977   1   27.32   26.39    0.93
1977   2   27.13   26.59    0.55

1986  12   27.71   26.47    1.24
1987   1   27.68   26.46    1.22
1987   2   27.89   26.66    1.23

1994  12   27.85   26.66    1.19
1995   1   27.57   26.59    0.98
1995   2   27.49   26.79    0.71

2006  12   27.74   26.65    1.09
2007   1   27.25   26.45    0.80
2007   2   26.90   26.66    0.23

1953 (27.00C), 1976 (27.18C), 1986 (27.76C), 1994 x2 (27.63C), 2006 (27.30C) as a blend: 27.42C

March only has to finish above +0.0C for JFM to be the 5th El Nino tri-mester, once that happens this event will be colored red -

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8

 

Weeklies are now very similar to 2009-10 for strength. I do like that year for Spring after not liking it for Winter. A +1.0C Nino 3.4 in March would be pretty strong historically if the level of warmth were to remain. A lot of the strongest El Ninos were not too far off from that in March. A +1.0C March is like a blend of 3/1973 and 3/1983 were it to verify that warm.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8
 09JAN2019     24.6 0.5     26.1 0.6     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.6
 16JAN2019     25.4 0.9     26.3 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.0 0.7
 23JAN2019     25.1 0.2     26.2 0.4     27.0 0.4     28.9 0.7
 30JAN2019     26.3 1.0     26.3 0.3     27.0 0.3     29.0 0.8
 06FEB2019     25.9 0.3     26.5 0.4     27.1 0.4     29.0 0.8
 13FEB2019     26.6 0.6     26.8 0.5     27.3 0.6     29.0 0.9
 20FEB2019     26.4 0.2     27.0 0.5     27.5 0.7     29.1 1.0
 27FEB2019     26.6 0.4     27.6 1.0     28.0 1.1     29.2 1.1

 24FEB2010     26.5 0.3     27.4 0.8     28.0 1.1     29.2 1.1

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface continues to lead surface significantly so. 

 

 

Check out the western subsurface leading up to the 2015 El Nino. We seem to be doing it again. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Something people don't really know.. 1965-1966 was a Strong Nino that peaked in the Fall.  2.0, 2.0, 1.7, then 1.4 djf. This was a -PNA 

Just like this year. 

We are peaking on the other end of the seasonal scale.. El Nino likely to continue. 

[raindancewx]

When I did objective matches to Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4, Nino 4 for February, I think the top years came out as February 1995, 2003, 1973, 2007, 1987, 1966. 

It's interesting, a blend of Feb 1987 and Feb 1988 is actually dead on for Feb 2019 in Nino 3.4, and Nino 3, but too cold in the other zones.

I'd have to double check my records but I don't know of any double El Ninos where both El Ninos are during low solar activity if we are to move into another El Nino next winter.

If you consider 1952-53 an El Nino (I do not), the 1952-53 to 1953-54 double El Nino is probably the only transition where both El Ninos were low solar since 1931. 1977-78 and 1987-88 both had low solar initially, but rapidly transitioned to high solar activity in the July-Jun years. That may be possible but it doesn't look to me like a rapid uptick is coming with the last minimum being centered around February 2009. July to June 1987-88 had 29-140 sunspots per month, 65 for the 12-month average, and July to June 1977-78 had 30-135 sunspots per month, 84 for the 12-month average.

1913-14 and 1914-15, and 1899-00, 1900-01 were both low solar El Ninos if you believe the extended data, so might have to look at the 1914-15 and 1900-01. I know supposedly Albuquerque had 40 inches of snow in 1914-15, with 27.5" falling in January 1915 with temperatures below 0 at a site a couple miles - and lower elevation - than the airport. Would love to see the setup for that. For being 100+ years ago, those winters are actually not that cold nationally.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The way this +PNA is unfolding with the developing Kelvin wave makes me think this will not rush into Strong territory. It's a NorthPacific-ENSO even signal if that makes any sense. Weak-Moderate continuation, although something may happen in the Fall. (The point is, we are probably staying below 1982,1997)

Edit: ie, in strong events you would usually see the NOI bottoming right now, and a off the west-coast or GOA trough. 

[raindancewx]

How about this for your crazy February 2019 analog re-creation? To be fair, Montana was -20 to -25 v. 1951-2010 averages, so the severity isn't right, but spatially it isn't bad.

I had the wrong top matches for February 2019 in the Nino zones - it is actually 1995, 2003, 1993, 1973, 2010, 1966, in that order for closeness. Best blend for re-creating February 2018 in the Nino zones I could get was:  1958 (x3), 2007 (x2), 2010 (x1), 2015 (x2), 2016 (x1), 2017 (x4). In the Southwest, 1958, 1973, 2003, 2007 are all pretty wet in March. 1958 and 1973 are actually top five for wetness in the last 100 years.

Feb	4	3.4	3	1.2	Weight
1958	29.12	28.24	27.44	26.36	3
2007	28.66	26.88	26.49	26.21	2
2010	29.08	28.01	27.28	26.22	1
2015	29.07	27.17	26.46	25.57	2
2016	29.41	29.01	28.38	27.40	1
2017	28.11	26.67	26.83	27.46	4
Blend	28.75	27.42	27.02	26.62
2019	28.92	27.43	26.95	26.66

 

Feb	4	3.4	3	1.2
1966	28.64	27.55	26.90	25.49
1973	28.59	27.95	27.20	26.26
1993	28.30	27.16	26.80	26.40
1995	28.91	27.49	26.85	26.20
2003	28.88	27.39	26.84	25.98
2010	29.08	28.01	27.28	26.22
2019	28.92	27.43	26.95	26.66

 

[raindancewx]

Billings, Montana had its coldest February since 1936. Here is an interesting comparison, just for fun -

    Feb      Nino 4     Nino 3.4  Nino 3    Nino 12

2019

28.92

27.43

26.95

26.66

     1936      28.31    27.25    26.72      26.52

Yup...almost identical. February 2019 was essentially 1936 +0.15C in all zones but Nino 4. So Billings had its warmer version of February 1936.

[etudiant]

10 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Billings, Montana had its coldest February since 1936. Here is an interesting comparison, just for fun -

    Feb      Nino 4     Nino 3.4  Nino 3    Nino 12

2019

28.92

27.43

26.95

26.66

     1936      28.31    27.25    26.72      26.52

Yup...almost identical. February 2019 was essentially 1936 +0.15C in all zones but Nino 4. So Billings had its warmer version of February 1936.

Well, if a 1936 + 0.15C rerun is going to happen, summer will be toasty.

[raindancewx]

The big time storm / severe outbreak that is depicted on the models is pretty consistent with the SOI crash on 3/1 to 3/3 - storms tend to show up in the SW 10 days after a drop of that magnitude.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
7 Mar 2019	1011.27	1008.80	-7.85	-14.63	-3.04
6 Mar 2019	1010.75	1008.45	-8.66	-14.35	-2.88
5 Mar 2019	1011.65	1008.45	-4.36	-14.10	-2.72
4 Mar 2019	1011.81	1008.15	-2.15	-13.94	-2.58
3 Mar 2019	1012.02	1009.00	-5.22	-14.00	-2.53
2 Mar 2019	1012.17	1008.75	-3.30	-13.59	-2.38
1 Mar 2019	1014.11	1009.00	4.79	-13.48	-2.19

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It looks, as per subsurface, that the event will peak in April. 

[raindancewx]

Still looks like the warm waters are heading East. The 2009-10 look that developed in late February at the surface (see the weeklies) should vanish again in a few weeks.

I haven't gotten the PDO mailing list update from Nate Mantua for recent PDO numbers, but the NOAA PDO dropped again in February.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201810	-0.75
201811	-0.78
201812	-0.12
201901	-0.23
201902	-0.55

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

We might be going into a 2-year Nino.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

On 3/7/2019 at 11:27 AM, etudiant said:

Well, if a 1936 + 0.15C rerun is going to happen, summer will be toasty.

Interesting comparison. The most recent CANSIPS is sniffing this out. 

July 2019

August 2019

[raindancewx]

Nino 3.4 in March is probably going to be one of the five or six warmest readings since 1950 in the raw data. Here is what that implies for Summer - warm FL/WA in June. Wet NW.

Pretty strong warm signal in the South for July actually. Wet north. (Side Note: I find that July/Dec are essentially twins spatially for temp patterns in a lot of years)

August is kind of dry in the NE after a warm March in Nino 3.4? No huge signals, but it is interesting seeing August is favored warm for basically the US outside TX & the NW.

Warmest Nino 3.4 March is 28.90C - I don't think it gets that high, but the weeklies had the week of 2/24-3/2 at 28.0C in Nino 3.4 and there is warm water surfacing. A reading of 28.2C+ seems pretty likely for March. When I said in my winter forecast that this event might end behaving like the strong El Ninos in later in Winter/Spring last October this is kind of what I meant. These El Ninos are all ballpark now for March.

Mar	Nino 3.4
2016	28.90
1983	28.66
1992	28.66
1998	28.62
1958	28.27
1987	28.27
1966	28.21
2010	28.18
2019	??