2019 ENSO

[raindancewx]

Subsurface heat came in warmer in December than November, as expected.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

This is the top match I could find, with each month within 0.1.

100W-180W	Oct	Nov	Dec
1981	0.25	0.02	-0.22
1981	0.25	0.02	-0.22
1986	0.95	0.52	0.97
1986	0.95	0.52	0.97
1986	0.95	0.52	0.97
2005	-0.14	-0.57	-0.74
2018	1.59	1.36	1.06
Blend	0.69	0.34	0.40
2019	0.70	0.26	0.34

Blend is less warm nationally than the Canadian/CFS.

 

 

[raindancewx]

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5

 

CPC has +0.5C for OND (+0.46C v. their baseline). 27.11C in December. Using my older 1951-2010 base base, that's a +0.66C reading in Nino 3.4 - still real weak.

Until September, 1992 was easily the top match in Nino 3.4 since 1950. Starting January, 1993 should become a pretty good match once again going by surface and subsurface readings in Nino 3.4.

QBO is still positive, for those of you who consider that important. 2004-05 looks like a solid match now.

2004   -4.84    2.61    5.45   10.46   12.97   11.75    9.96    8.74    7.29    8.00    4.35    2.45

2005   -0.69   -0.96   -0.33   -6.64  -15.09  -20.59  -24.20  -25.87  -27.80  -28.76  -29.55  -25.04

2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25    7.27    5.07    1.66

[raindancewx]

Long term, the Fall transitioned from a pretty canonical El Nino Modoki event - very warm Nino 4, cold by Indonesia & Peru, to kind of a mess. Anomalies below are 1951-2010 basis.

December featured a very warm Nino 4 and a very warm Nino 1.2, with the heat skipping Nino 3/3.4 to some extent as a cold wave below the surface moved east. It's amusing to see 1953, 2003, 2004 among the top six matches to OND 2019 - I had experimented with using that exact blend for winter. You'd have certainly have the heat in the Plains that exists now, with the NE & SW relatively average. I didn't use it because I don't think it will hold the whole winter. That blend gets you the huge heat waves in the Summer (2003), a fairly high ACE value (2004), El Nino winter SSTs after El Nino (all), and fairly low solar with a Neutral PDO, and warm AMO. That blend with one or two other hot SE years thrown in will probably end up pretty close given how hot it has been outside the mountains of New England & the Southwest to date.

I did use 1953 in my winter blend, but I substituted 2004 for 1992 since it had been the top objective Nino 3.4 match for Spring/Summer in 2019 by a country mile. The January pattern forecast looks more like January 1993 than January 2005 anyway.

[raindancewx]

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1
 25DEC2019     23.6 0.3     25.5 0.2     27.0 0.4     29.5 1.0
 01JAN2020     23.7 0.1     25.7 0.3     27.2 0.7     29.6 1.2

 05DEC2018     23.1 0.8     26.2 1.1     27.6 1.0     29.7 1.2
 12DEC2018     23.4 0.8     26.1 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.7 1.2
 19DEC2018     23.7 0.7     26.2 1.0     27.6 1.0     29.5 1.0
 26DEC2018     24.1 0.8     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.2 0.8
 02JAN2019     23.9 0.2     26.1 0.6     27.3 0.7     29.1 0.8

SOI has spiked positive lately, in part due to the IOD collapsing, and developing hurricane activity by Australia. 

[raindancewx]

If you use 1951-2010 as the baseline, on average, Nino 3.4 will warm 0.2C from January to February. La Ninas typically weaken late Winter and Spring, so they warm more than 0.2C. El Ninos typically weaken late Winter and Spring, so they typically warm less than 0.2C because they are cooling/weakening.

Last year, Nino 3.4 warmed from January to February by 0.28C - that is much more like a weakening La Nina. Now, look at the composite for an extra 0.1C of warming above the 0.2C average (i.e. a weakening La Nina reverting to Neutral), and look at the composite for at least 0.1C less warming than average:

The map on the left is the ten most recent years that warmed at least 0.3C from Jan to Feb - typically La Ninas, but also 2019 which warmed 0.28C. Now...look at February 2019: It is an exaggerated, extreme version of the left map. I think it's all but guaranteed that Nino 3.4 finishes warmer in January than December. It's not a guarantee that February finishes 0.3C or more warmer than January - but I think it's pretty likely - remember 0.2C is how much warmer February is "typically", so you only need an extra 0.1C.

[UniversesBelowNormal]

Climate still not behaving like anything ordinary.. You wouldn't get this extreme wintertime -PNA in this ENSO, unless anomaly (5-10%)

[raindancewx]

MJO currently looks like it could move back into phase four/five later in the month or in February. The high amplitude 4/5 call was depicted by late December, so it's likely the weakening phase five call is right - beyond that in late January...we'll see.

[raindancewx]

Expecting January to be a warmer month than December for Nino 3.4 overall. The little patch of cold water has moved out of the region. Similar to last year now.

[raindancewx]

Euro has a fairly steep cool down of Nino 4 forecast through July. Nino 3.4 is expected to cool slowly and hang around +0.5C. 

The PDO has recovered to a pretty positive value on the JISAO/Mantua index.

 https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

2018-11-01T00:00:00Z	-0.05
2018-12-01T00:00:00Z	0.52
2019-01-01T00:00:00Z	0.66
2019-02-01T00:00:00Z	0.46
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z	0.37
2019-04-01T00:00:00Z	1.07
2019-05-01T00:00:00Z	1.03
2019-06-01T00:00:00Z	1.09
2019-07-01T00:00:00Z	1.03
2019-08-01T00:00:00Z	0.38
2019-09-01T00:00:00Z	0.41
2019-10-01T00:00:00Z	-0.45
2019-11-01T00:00:00Z	0.15
2019-12-01T00:00:00Z	0.97

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1
 25DEC2019     23.6 0.3     25.5 0.2     27.0 0.4     29.5 1.0
 01JAN2020     23.7 0.1     25.7 0.3     27.2 0.7     29.6 1.2
 08JAN2020     24.3 0.2     25.9 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.3 1.0

On the weekly update, subsurface warmth is actually higher than last January now (+0.7 and rising)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

SOI has been positive but is correcting negative.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
13 Jan 2020	1009.89	1005.85	-2.68	-5.49	-5.34
12 Jan 2020	1009.84	1005.45	-1.03	-5.78	-5.46
11 Jan 2020	1010.04	1004.25	5.56	-5.87	-5.52
10 Jan 2020	1011.34	1003.85	13.57	-6.09	-5.49
9 Jan 2020	1011.90	1005.60	7.97	-6.37	-5.59
8 Jan 2020	1011.88	1006.40	4.10	-6.72	-5.72
7 Jan 2020	1012.42	1006.75	5.00	-7.01	-5.90
6 Jan 2020	1014.76	1006.20	18.61	-7.02	-6.06
5 Jan 2020	1015.24	1006.70	18.52	-7.40	-6.28
4 Jan 2020	1014.00	1006.95	11.50	-7.88	-6.57
3 Jan 2020	1011.65	1008.60	-7.34	-8.54	-6.82
2 Jan 2020	1011.06	1010.15	-17.42	-8.42	-6.97
1 Jan 2020	1011.94	1008.85	-7.16	-7.54	-6.99

[raindancewx]

Winter Weather Advisory for me means Albuquerque should be ahead of the combined snow total for NYC, Philly, Baltimore & DC again if the advisory verifies. Currently pretty close - 4.6" v. 5.0".

The new Jamstec has El Nino / near El Nino conditions lasting for another full year, with an extremely hot Spring for the US. The ideal El Nino Modoki look in Sep-October for severe eastern cold has crashed pretty hard since, which coincides well with the rapid warm up in the East since the severely cold start to November. 

[roardog]

5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Winter Weather Advisory for me means Albuquerque should be ahead of the combined snow total for NYC, Philly, Baltimore & DC again if the advisory verifies. Currently pretty close - 4.6" v. 5.0".

The new Jamstec has El Nino / near El Nino conditions lasting for another full year, with an extremely hot Spring for the US. The ideal El Nino Modoki look in Sep-October for severe eastern cold has crashed pretty hard since, which coincides well with the rapid warm up in the East since the severely cold start to November. 

Do you think another weak Nino/warm neutral year is coming?

[raindancewx]

I think this El Nino may last deep into 2020, and then turn into a La Nina that peaks late in winter 2020-21 or early in Spring 2021.

I'm expecting the cold water below the surface to end the El Nino from West to East, meaning we'll have Modoki La Nina / East-based El Nino forcing for a time later in 2020 (colder Nino 4, warmer Nino 3.4/1.2)

[raindancewx]

The SOI for January is back down to -0.6. Right now, the top blend for February is 1937, 1993, 2005.

Will change by the end of the month...but it's not likely to be super positive or negative this month.

SOI    Nov    Dec    Jan
1936    -13.8    -0.7    8.8
2004    -7.7    -10.1    1.2
1992    -6.9    -6.6    -9.2
Blend    -9.5    -5.8    0.3
2019    -9.5    -6.7    -0.6

Cold West / average East pattern if the SOI finishes around 0 in January.

The top six objective matches are 2004-05, 1939-40, 1967-68, 1979-80, 1987-88, 1963-64. 

 

[raindancewx]

 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1
 25DEC2019     23.6 0.3     25.5 0.2     27.0 0.4     29.5 1.0
 01JAN2020     23.7 0.1     25.7 0.3     27.2 0.7     29.6 1.2
 08JAN2020     24.3 0.2     25.9 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.3 1.0
 15JAN2020     24.2-0.2     25.6-0.1     27.0 0.4     29.2 0.9

Given how warm the subsurface is below Nino 3.4, you have to expect a warmer Nino 3.4 in February, above the average +0.2C warming that takes place from Jan to Feb. 

The western subsurface does look pretty cold, so the models showing +0.5C to +0.8C in Nino 3.4 through Feb/Mar and then a La Nina next winter are probably right. 

I'm fairly confident that the periods of extreme Eastern warmth in the Fall/Winter are going to show up again in the Spring. Will be interesting to see how that evolves. I'll link my Spring Forecast here around February 10th if anyone is curious. 

Winter to date has looked a lot like 1953-54, 2003-04, 2004-05 as a blend warmed up a degree, with the heat core somewhat SE, and it's not a bad SST match either in the Nino zones.

 

[raindancewx]

Not structured the same as last year, but looks like an El Nino to me. 

It's kind of amazing the SOI has been better connected to the El Nino this year given how warm the waters by Australia have been compared to last year. 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Not structured the same as last year, but looks like an El Nino to me. 

It's kind of amazing the SOI has been better connected to the El Nino this year given how warm the waters by Australia have been compared to last year. 

For the most part it has had an El Nino look to it for quite some time.  JB has made the point that the waters have never returned to normal following the Super El Nino of 15-16. 

[raindancewx]

My January outlook from October is actually starting to look pretty good nationally. East probably won't finish +6 to +12 by the end of the month, and the Northern Plains will warm up some, it looks pretty warm from Montana to Michigan over the rest of the month. General idea from me was weak cold Plains and West in January, warm elsewhere. If you add 2F to my blend, it should end up pretty close to the final January look.

My NAO indicator, and the growing model consensus of the MJO starting February in phase 5/6, not to mention the super +AO in January, all point to another warm month for the East. I don't expect the Montana anomalies to finish 10-25 below normal for the month though, if the cold goes into the West again.

With Nino 3.4 not really warming up at the surface in January, but lots of warmth below the surface, I'd expect Nino 3.4 to be much warmer in February than in January, which is atypical in an El Nino. So some kind of western / central cold dump is likely if Nino 3.4 sees a big jump, like last year. The 3.5 month lag that had mid-Aug to mid-Sept fairly similar to December still seems to be working, which implies a pretty cold February for the Plains, or an area near the Plains. Here is Sept 16-Oct 5 v. Jan 1-20.

There's essentially been a clockwise rotation centered on the Canadian Plains of some of the East Canada Fall warmth into New England, while the cold centered on Reno, NV shifted up to Western Canada. Very curious to see if there is any resemblance in February to this. My hunch is there will be, but it will be shifted to the northwest from the Fall.

[raindancewx]

Subsurface is still warm, but looks like it will rapidly cool from mid-February or March on. Similar thing happened in Nov-Dec, coinciding well with the big Eastern US warm up. I'd expect a pretty warm April nationally if I have the timing right on the warm up to cool down.

Long-term, a warm Spring in Nino 3.4 is a warm signal for the US in July-Sept. Last March-May was 7th warmest since 1950 in Nino 3.4. So a cooler Nino 3.4 favors somewhat less heat in that period.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1
 25DEC2019     23.6 0.3     25.5 0.2     27.0 0.4     29.5 1.0
 01JAN2020     23.7 0.1     25.7 0.3     27.2 0.7     29.6 1.2
 08JAN2020     24.3 0.2     25.9 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.3 1.0
 15JAN2020     24.2-0.2     25.6-0.1     27.0 0.4     29.2 0.9
 22JAN2020     24.6-0.2     25.8 0.0     26.9 0.3     29.1 0.9

[raindancewx]

CFS matches the spatial look you get matching the 100-180W zone's heat content in the Tropical Pacific.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Heat content is now almost identical to last year in January. Was +0.59 in January 2019. The CFS 6-10, 8-14, and week 3-4 all show a warm February in the East. No update from the Canadian seasonal model yet on Tropical Tidbits.

100-180W	Nov	Dec	Jan
2019	0.26	0.34	0.51
1980	0.35	0.61	0.36
1980	0.35	0.61	0.36
1992	-0.27	0.19	0.27
2001	0.22	0.17	0.95
2001	0.22	0.17	0.95
2003	0.54	0.17	0.05
Blend	0.24	0.32	0.49

[raindancewx]

Some new data this week. The QBO has gone negative. 

2004   -4.84    2.61    5.45   10.46   12.97   11.75    9.96    8.74    7.29    8.00    4.35    2.45
2005   -0.69   -0.96   -0.33   -6.64  -15.09  -20.59  -24.20  -25.87  -27.80  -28.76  -29.55  -25.04

2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25    7.27    5.07    1.66
2020   -2.51 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00 -999.00

No new ONI value yet from CPC - likely tomorrow or later in the week. 
Solar activity may be coming up now - January had more than six sunspots, down from last January but up from recent months.
The El Nino is having a secondary peak, like last year. Warming of >0.3C from Jan-Feb in Nino 3.4 is more like a La Nina
that is weakening than an El Nino, which is why February is expected to be similar to last year (warm East, cold West).
              
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1
 25DEC2019     23.6 0.3     25.5 0.2     27.0 0.4     29.5 1.0
 01JAN2020     23.7 0.1     25.7 0.3     27.2 0.7     29.6 1.2
 08JAN2020     24.3 0.2     25.9 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.3 1.0
 15JAN2020     24.2-0.2     25.6-0.1     27.0 0.4     29.2 0.9
 22JAN2020     24.6-0.2     25.8 0.0     26.9 0.3     29.1 0.9
 29JAN2020     25.3 0.2     26.1 0.2     27.4 0.8     29.3 1.1

The new Canadian run still shows a La Nina developing in Summer but it is much slower to form that on the last run. The subsurface implies to me a final peak Feb or Mar or both, then rapid cooling at the subsurface. 

The record setting (?) +AO for February forecast is a pretty strong warm signal for Feb-Mar...and then not at all in April.

[raindancewx]

Three in a row?

[raindancewx]

CPC just had a baby everybody. Guess what gender?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2019  10   27.20   26.75    0.45
2019  11   27.23   26.75    0.48
2019  12   27.12   26.65    0.47
2020   1   27.18   26.45    0.73 (near identical to last year)

2018  10   27.62   26.75    0.86
2018  11   27.61   26.75    0.86
2018  12   27.49   26.65    0.84
2019   1   27.20   26.45    0.75

Year

DJF

JFM

FMA

MAM

AMJ

MJJ

JJA

JAS

ASO

SON

OND

NDJ

2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.6

[UniversesBelowNormal]

looks like an El Nino is developing for 2020 as per the subsurface..

[raindancewx]

If an El Nino is to develop again for winter 2020-21, that's pretty rare historically.

Only cases I know of for a 27C or warmer Nino 3.4, three times in a row, in the past 100 years:

1939-40, 1940-41, 1941-42

2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05 (and here you have to fudge 2003-04 - it's right at like 26.96C or so).

The early 1990s are kind of an interesting case, since 1992-93 was not 27.0C, but came after a volcanic eruption that cooled the Earth, and so you had essentially an El Nino without Nino 3.4 warm in 1992-93.

[raindancewx]

The Nate Mantua/JISAO PDO isn't in yet, but the NOAA version of it is, and shows a big crash for January. The JISAO PDO usually moves in a similar way to the NOAA PDO, but with higher values.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201910	-0.96
201911	-0.28
201912	0.01
202001	-1.17

[roardog]

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

The Nate Mantua/JISAO PDO isn't in yet, but the NOAA version of it is, and shows a big crash for January. The JISAO PDO usually moves in a similar way to the NOAA PDO, but with higher values.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201910	-0.96
201911	-0.28
201912	0.01
202001	-1.17

It looks like we haven’t had a PDO reading that negative since 2013. That’s probably a sign that things are changing in the Pacific. 

[andyhb]

JISAO PDO is no longer being updated.

Also, the +AO has reached an all time record daily value at 6.34, surpassing 2/26/90 at 5.91.

[raindancewx]

7 hours ago, andyhb said:

JISAO PDO is no longer being updated.

Also, the +AO has reached an all time record daily value at 6.34, surpassing 2/26/90 at 5.91.

It's updated at a different link. Nate Mantua sent me this a while ago and it's the same data as before through December 2019. 

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

Big drop on the weekly data. But the subsurface 100-180W is still warm and warming. Nino 3 as the coldest anomaly is unusual. We're in like an El Nino sandwich, warm edges, cold middle.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01JAN2020     23.7 0.1     25.7 0.3     27.2 0.7     29.6 1.2
 08JAN2020     24.3 0.2     25.9 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.3 1.0
 15JAN2020     24.2-0.2     25.6-0.1     27.0 0.4     29.2 0.9
 22JAN2020     24.6-0.2     25.8 0.0     26.9 0.3     29.1 0.9
 29JAN2020     25.3 0.2     26.1 0.2     27.4 0.8     29.3 1.1
 05FEB2020     26.4 0.8     26.1 0.0     26.9 0.2     29.3 1.2

[raindancewx]

I've been fairly impressed with 1953-54, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2018-19 for recent ocean/solar/weather conditions in the US. Had used three of those years in my winter forecast - it's the other three that screwed me up. With some adjustments for the record +AO, warmer oceans, and warming subsurface, I used that blend for my Spring forecast: https://www.scribd.com/document/446483878/Spring-2020-Outlook