2019 ENSO

[LibertyBell]

On 12/3/2019 at 7:20 PM, weathafella said:

Raindance, regarding the Boston correlation, seasonal total now 7.1 on 12/3.

Jer, was all 7.1 of that from the last storm at Logan?

 

[It's Always Sunny]

Appears another downwelling KW is initializing in Nino 4.  Assuming it sustains its anomalous warmth and movement east could see a warmup in Nino 3.4 in the next month or so however a bit of upwelling is lurking in Nino 3.4 so bears watching to see how much this downwelling KW sustains its warmth as it interacts with potentially cooler waters. Not expecting that upwelling KW to surface until it reaches Nino 3.

[It's Always Sunny]

Also just another observation the EWB over Nino 4 may start to erode the warmer waters as shown in the loop above which may keep downwelling KW in check which remains to be seen.

[raindancewx]

So far, the December SOI has been slightly positive, but it's not at the level of last year yet.

2019 335 1012.31 1007.80    4.10
2019 336 1012.38 1007.35    6.80
2019 337 1012.67 1007.20    9.08
2019 338 1012.06 1009.10   -3.95
2019 339 1012.70 1010.55   -8.15
2019 340 1014.24 1009.75    4.00

+1.98 Dec 1-6 2019

2018 335 1014.01 1009.05    6.43
2018 336 1014.79 1008.40   13.86
2018 337 1014.10 1008.80    8.20
2018 338 1013.56 1009.35    2.54
2018 339 1012.80 1007.45    8.46
2018 340 1011.07 1006.20    5.97

+7.57 Dec 1-6 2018

[It's Always Sunny]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

So far, the December SOI has been slightly positive, but it's not at the level of last year yet.

2019 335 1012.31 1007.80    4.10
2019 336 1012.38 1007.35    6.80
2019 337 1012.67 1007.20    9.08
2019 338 1012.06 1009.10   -3.95
2019 339 1012.70 1010.55   -8.15
2019 340 1014.24 1009.75    4.00

+1.98 Dec 1-6 2019

2018 335 1014.01 1009.05    6.43
2018 336 1014.79 1008.40   13.86
2018 337 1014.10 1008.80    8.20
2018 338 1013.56 1009.35    2.54
2018 339 1012.80 1007.45    8.46
2018 340 1011.07 1006.20    5.97

+7.57 Dec 1-6 2018

Hey @raindancewx a bit off topic but does La Nina generally correlate with an increased -EPO frequency since La Nina's usually result in the jet stream "buckling" over the Gulf of Alaska? Would the opposite be true for El Ninos (+EPO)?

[raindancewx]

I haven't really looked, but it seems like the PDO is a stronger correlation for the EPO than ENSO itself, even though the PDO is tied to ENSO. I think of the PDO/North Pacific as a dog on a leash, with ENSO as the master. At any given moment the dog may be ahead, behind, left or right of the ENSO signal, but never too far away from it, in terms of time.

It's early days yet, but the warm Nino 4 = warm US December signal is holding up so far. There are signs the middle of the US will turn colder, but I'm fairly happy with my idea to warm up he green area on the correlation map from my raw winter forecast blend by 2F in light of Nino 4 coming in around 29.3C or so in December, not 28.6C as my analogs had.

Somewhat different so far from last year. Composite on the left is the 12 warmest Nino 4 years since 1950.

[raindancewx]

Nino 4 (160E-150W) has really warmed up again back down to 200m over the last month. Nino 3.4 should re-warm too. It looks like the cold and warm water are both pushing East, so the Modoki look from Fall should come back. After that, probably a rapid collapse toward a La Nina sometime in Spring? Models have been showing that lately. It looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole look is collapsing or at least reversing too - rapid cooling of the waters by East Africa / Madagascar and rapid warming of the waters by Indonesia. 

Ideal +IOD

[griteater]

21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole look is collapsing or at least reversing too - rapid cooling of the waters by East Africa / Madagascar and rapid warming of the waters by Indonesia. 

[weathafella]

On 12/6/2019 at 9:27 AM, LibertyBell said:

Jer, was all 7.1 of that from the last storm at Logan?

 

Yes.  Most of it from round 2.

[It's Always Sunny]

On 12/8/2019 at 11:56 AM, raindancewx said:

Nino 4 (160E-150W) has really warmed up again back down to 200m over the last month. Nino 3.4 should re-warm too. It looks like the cold and warm water are both pushing East, so the Modoki look from Fall should come back. After that, probably a rapid collapse toward a La Nina sometime in Spring? Models have been showing that lately. It looks like the Indian Ocean Dipole look is collapsing or at least reversing too - rapid cooling of the waters by East Africa / Madagascar and rapid warming of the waters by Indonesia. 

Ideal +IOD

You 

You think that developing EWB over Nino 4 will put a bit of a damper on the anomalous warm water pushing east?  I still think it'll be enough to warm Nino 3.4 but maybe not quite as much as we think? I still think CFS forecast may be underdoing it a bit but that's just my opinion.

[raindancewx]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for 
          
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06NOV2019     20.7-0.6     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 13NOV2019     20.9-0.6     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.6 0.9
 20NOV2019     21.7-0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.7     29.5 1.0
 27NOV2019     22.5 0.4     25.4 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.3 0.8
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9

Nino 3.4 / 3 should recover some in the coming weeks. My criteria for El Nino is 27.0C for DJF, and at least six months more than +0.5C above the 1951-2010 average for July-June. So far we have two of six (Oct-Nov) - but I'll re-classify it in my data set if we remain under 27.0C for the winter average.

Local NWS thinks the pattern may do usual warm ENSO December thing later in the month.

Dry northwest flow aloft returns for Thursday and Friday ahead of a a strong 190kt East Asian jet breaking off over the EPAC and nosing into the western 
U.S. during the weekend. GFS and ECWMF agree that rain with snow above 7000 feet or so breaks out across the northern quarter of NM or so sometime 
Saturday, continuing at times through Monday. It`s still way too early to nail down much at this point but this storm system/strong jet 
(135-140kt over northern NM Saturday) has the potential to drop heavy snow over the northwest highlands, Tusas Mountains and northern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains over the weekend and into early next week. This pattern typically sets the stage for a positive PNA (think anomalous UL high pressure 
over/north of AK) and frequent troughs/lows moving into the western U.S. Let`s hope.

[raindancewx]

Looking at local data, I'm expecting the type of unusual pattern in the Southwest US in the second half of November 2019, with tropical moisture coming up from the subtropical jet, but trailing, and not quite phasing with strong Northern stream storms, to return in January. I have a couple reasons for this.

The SOI favors two paths on the correlation map - not one given the space in Arizona and Northern NM for the blue areas. The N. California and SE path for the Northern Branch looks similar to the Front Range blizzard path in late November. The Moisture from Baja stream NE across NM, but not really hitting the ski resorts in the north, is the path that brought the Rio Grande Valley a lot of snow - 4-8" as low as 4,000 feet.

Statistically, the odds of heavy precipitation in November not making a difference in January precipitation are remote. The p-value is for the difference in proportions test hypothesis that the two groups are the same. You can think of the odds as the likelihood the groups are the same - anything below 0.05 (5.0%) you reject as being the same. Look at January - it's very unlikely that the big Novembers are not an indicator of a difference in January, which supports the SOI map. You can see the average for January after a very wet November is 0.78", more than double the long-term average, and you have roughly 3:1 odds that January will be wet after a top November for moisture.

Looking even deeper, the top 11 wettest Novembers have several January clusters for precipitation for very wet days. I think these days will provide the opportunities for the late Nov-early Dec storms to repeat - heavy snow New England and maybe further into the NE or South this time, heavy snow Colorado front range and Rio Grande Valley, maybe further down to El Paso or Chihuahua this time. The most common day is January 4 in the top November years.

Overall, Jan 4-5, 11-12,17-20, and 29 look like the windows for big storms like in late November. Once this window closes, it was roughly 11/21-12/4 before, I think the El Nino warm/signal will change in some way and the US will go into some kind of warm spell, kind of like early December was. I think the trigger was the MJO dying after being in phase 8, so that's probably an indicator that this part of the cycle is coming back. One mechanism for this cycle not coming back after January is I don't think the SOI is going to be able to drop 30 points in a day or two, like in November, with the Indian Ocean Dipole making low pressure difficult to achieve over Australia. Once that high-enhancement is gone, the pressure pattern over Australia should be much more stable. For now, the Indian Ocean dipole is probably still powerful to burp out another huge trade-wind reversal one-three times by Jan 10 or Jan 20.

[raindancewx]

Euro trended warmer, finally, for Nino 3.4 in the December update. No members below -0.5C through July now. I like the high end of the plume through February, then transitioning toward the low end in Spring but we'll see.

It did well last December -

[It's Always Sunny]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Euro trended warmer, finally, for Nino 3.4 in the December update. No members below -0.5C through July now. I like the high end of the plume through February, then transitioning toward the low end in Spring but we'll see.

It did well last December -

I like what it is doing as well and agree with it to some degree, considering the continuous push of warm water east however is this model taking into assumption more warm water pushing east from Maritimes in conjunction with a modeled weakening of trade winds?

[raindancewx]

The latest Jamstec has trended to an El Nino again, and has it continuing for a while, like in the Euro update. The strongly positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also forecast to rapidly collapse, which may be happening now.

If you blend the cold position in the US on the Nov map and the Dec map for US Winter, that's where I had the cold going for the overall period. Interior West, not getting into the South or NE, but a lot of the US slightly cold.

It's taken a while but at least in the Northern Plains, the cold is winning out in December now in the middle of the US. Bismarck is around 2-3F below average, and the NE/SE anomalies have burned off a lot too already. The Canadian/CFS had the Northern Plains very warm for the month...which looks fairly wrong already, at least for 12/1-12/12. 

[raindancewx]

We'll have to see things shake out by 12/31, but tentative top SOI matches for Oct/Nov/Dec are a really interesting set of years.

SOI    Oct    Nov    Dec
2019    -5.2    -9.5    2.0
1932    -4.1    -4.6    1.8
1944    -8.5    -6.5    2.9
1985    -5.3    -1.5    0.8
1968    -1.6    -3.4    0.3
1978    -5.3    -2.1    -2.2
2016    -4.5    0.6    0.4

You can mimic the current result almost exactly by blending 1936 & 1944.

SOI       Oct    Nov    Dec
1944     -8.5    -6.5     +2.9
1936     0.3    -13.8     -0.7
Mean    -4.1    -10.2    +1.1
2019     -5.2      -9.5    +2.0

Remember the October pattern? That blend says it is back. It's actually very difficult to get the SOI to match the values above given the huge Nov/Dec shift.  Last year was +0.6 to +9.1, pretty different for Nov-Dec. The six year blend from above looks like a de-amplified version of January 1937/1945. 

I'm not suggesting this is "correct", and it isn't a forecast, since we don't know the December SOI yet. But it ~kind of looks like the Jamstec update...and that's interesting.

 

[raindancewx]

On the weekly ENSO update, subsurface heat recovered somewhat this week. The wave of heat below the surface is expanding east in the Nino zones. We're somewhat close to 2003, 2004, 2014 in recent years, but without the super positive PDO of 2014-15 and high to very high solar in those years.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 20NOV2019     21.7-0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.7     29.5 1.0
 27NOV2019     22.5 0.4     25.4 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.3 0.8
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0

 17NOV2004     22.2 0.5     25.5 0.5     27.3 0.7     29.6 1.0
 24NOV2004     21.9 0.0     25.4 0.4     27.3 0.7     29.5 1.0
 01DEC2004     22.4 0.2     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 08DEC2004     22.3-0.2     25.7 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.8

 19NOV2014     22.6 0.8     26.0 1.0     27.5 0.9     29.5 0.9
 26NOV2014     22.4 0.4     25.9 0.9     27.6 1.0     29.5 0.9
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9

The SOI has corrected somewhat negative in recent days. Will be interesting to see how it finishes December. Back to -1.5 for 12/1-12/16. For the moment, a blend of Oct-Dec 1936, 1944, 2014 is a good match for the SOI. Will be interesting to see if the SOI finishes near -8 by the end of the month.

Year    Oct    Nov    Dec
2014    -8.2    -8.0    -7.6
1936    0.3    -13.8    -0.7
1944    -8.5    -6.5    2.9
Blend    -5.5    -9.4    -1.8
2019    -5.2    -9.5    -1.5

[raindancewx]

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

The recent MEI, with most similar years since 1979. A lot of the top SOI matches are similar on the old MEI too.

YEAR     DJ         JF        FM        MA      AM      MJ        JJ         JA       AS        SO        ON       ND
1979     0.47     0.26    -0.08     0.20     0.27    -0.15    -0.14     0.44     0.38     0.24     0.52     0.65
1980     0.35     0.19     0.41     0.59     0.55     0.62     0.62     0.15     0.20     0.09    -0.03    -0.06
1981    -0.33    -0.24     0.33     0.41    -0.27    -0.60    -0.51    -0.31    -0.01    -0.10    -0.22    -0.16
1982    -0.38    -0.47    -0.28    -0.34    -0.03     0.78     1.79     2.02     1.81     1.93     2.28     2.48
1983     2.57     2.74     2.68     2.79     2.89     2.02     0.75    -0.11    -0.41    -0.43    -0.43    -0.43
1984    -0.50    -0.52    -0.11     0.09    -0.47    -0.72    -0.31    -0.15    -0.11    -0.15    -0.58    -0.31
1985    -0.25    -0.58    -0.60    -0.76    -1.22    -0.57    -0.02    -0.37    -0.44    -0.04     0.00    -0.34
1986    -0.36    -0.30    -0.39    -0.52    -0.18     0.12     0.56     1.05     1.31     0.57     0.65     1.06
1987     0.98     1.08     1.47     1.66     1.91     2.02     1.92     1.48     1.23     1.13     0.85     0.75
1988     0.59     0.31     0.19    -0.01    -0.36    -1.19    -1.77    -1.79    -1.77    -1.54    -1.61    -1.49
1989    -1.09    -1.06    -1.20    -1.09    -1.04    -1.02    -1.12    -0.73    -0.61    -0.56    -0.33    -0.02
1990     0.12     0.43     0.61     0.17     0.03     0.04     0.17     0.06     0.21    -0.06     0.12     0.28
1991     0.16     0.08     0.21     0.21     0.35     0.89     0.88     0.42     0.62     1.09     1.17     1.29
1992     1.70     1.59     1.72     1.98     1.69     1.58     0.76     0.08     0.50     0.81     0.73     0.78
1993     0.83     0.93     0.78     0.98     1.48     1.50     0.91     0.62     0.64     0.95     0.70     0.26
1994     0.02    -0.17    -0.21     0.03     0.00     0.25     0.88     0.84     1.06     1.47     0.99     0.87
1995     0.77     0.48     0.14     0.18     0.16    -0.00    -0.25    -0.65    -0.86    -0.65    -0.67    -0.82
1996    -0.83    -0.81    -0.64    -0.69    -0.83    -0.90    -0.76    -0.60    -0.26    -0.31    -0.30    -0.45
1997    -0.66    -0.72    -0.29     0.17     0.68     2.25     2.11     2.20     2.17     2.01     2.06     2.03
1998     2.23     2.43     2.27     2.55     2.26     0.37    -1.42    -1.74    -1.31    -1.21    -1.30    -1.25
1999    -1.26    -1.18    -1.11    -1.17    -1.36    -1.26    -1.19    -1.07    -1.17    -1.31    -1.33    -1.43
2000    -1.26    -1.27    -1.36    -0.93    -0.97    -1.14    -0.58    -0.08    -0.36    -0.55    -0.91    -0.80
2001    -0.82    -0.87    -0.79    -0.61    -0.58    -0.71    -0.02     0.34    -0.07    -0.25    -0.32     0.02
2002     0.07    -0.26    -0.20    -0.36    -0.10     0.40     0.42     0.97     0.84     0.79     0.76     0.86
2003     0.80     0.62     0.53    -0.08    -0.57    -0.07     0.01     0.01     0.14     0.26     0.29     0.10
2004     0.16    -0.04    -0.44    -0.23    -0.44    -0.34     0.43     0.74     0.54     0.34     0.51     0.51
2005     0.08     0.61     0.82     0.13     0.18     0.20    -0.02    -0.01    -0.05    -0.71    -0.75    -0.73
2006    -0.68    -0.50    -0.61    -0.84    -0.43    -0.23     0.11     0.56     0.63     0.68     0.90     0.59
2007     0.62     0.39    -0.22    -0.36    -0.44    -0.86    -0.77    -0.93    -1.10    -1.14    -1.13    -1.22
2008    -1.08    -1.27    -1.54    -1.13    -0.98    -0.86    -0.87    -1.08    -1.07    -1.12    -1.05    -1.05
2009    -1.01    -0.85    -0.94    -0.81    -0.72    -0.06     0.49     0.52     0.39     0.56     1.05     0.96
2010     0.93     1.28     1.31     0.49    -0.17    -1.33    -2.43    -2.40    -2.28    -2.18    -2.04    -1.91
2011    -1.83    -1.63    -1.79    -1.74    -1.29    -1.08    -0.86    -0.88    -1.16    -1.37    -1.21    -1.24
2012    -1.08    -0.67    -0.59    -0.43    -0.35    -0.28     0.30    -0.06    -0.32    -0.22    -0.07    -0.07
2013    -0.05    -0.07    -0.14    -0.37    -0.71    -1.18    -0.85    -0.50    -0.38    -0.16    -0.18    -0.35
2014    -0.51    -0.43    -0.08    -0.16    -0.18    -0.01     0.32     0.16    -0.15     0.07     0.34     0.34
2015     0.23     0.05     0.13     0.35     0.96     1.85     1.73     1.92     2.21     2.11     1.88     1.90
2016     1.94     1.81     1.31     1.33     1.26     0.36    -0.51    -0.28    -0.34    -0.60    -0.51    -0.34
2017    -0.41    -0.41    -0.58    -0.21     0.17    -0.29    -0.70    -0.77    -0.80    -0.63    -0.63    -0.73
2018    -0.77    -0.70    -0.79    -1.29    -0.91    -0.51    -0.17     0.36     0.52     0.41     0.26     0.13
2019     0.08     0.52     0.77     0.33     0.26     0.35     0.24     0.30     0.15     0.27     0.45  

[raindancewx]

PDO jumped to +0.15 in Nov. https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

Similar value to last November. Opposite Dec so far though. About 2F of the warmth here has burned off since 12/16, with the highs around 40 and cold mornings.

[raindancewx]

The next update this week should see the cold waters below Nino 3 fill in warmer.

SOI has been consistently negative since mid-month. Around -4 for December last I checked.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 20NOV2019     21.7-0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.7     29.5 1.0
 27NOV2019     22.5 0.4     25.4 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.3 0.8
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1

The little area of coolness below Nino 3 is keeping that zone relatively cool compared to the others. 

Outside chance we'll have a White Christmas here, and the Euro has more to follow. Albuquerque would be around 9 inches of snow for the season if the Euro was right through the end of December. Solutions will continue to change. The models do have a lot of rain and snow coming for the SW, so that's promising.

The Jun-Nov / July-Dec period remains very similar to 1948 here for average highs - will be interesting to see if January sees some kind of incredible cold dump into the West like January 1949. December looks like it will finish near average here for temperatures, good start for the winter if the moisture verifies. My winter forecast (from Oct - see earlier in the thread) had a blend of 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018 for winter, but in December, I warmed the US 2F everywhere since the blend was too cold in Nino 4 (28.6C, observed is currently near 29.5C). The raw high blend in ABQ is 46.6F for 12/1-12/23, warmed up 2F, it goes to 48.6F, and my observed high is 49.4F for 12/1-12/23.

I'm going to be too cold for Montana and the Southern half of the Central US, but once the rest of the month is baked in, should be pretty close elsewhere. For comparison, the blend on its own has been pretty good in the NE. Boston's 12/1-12/23 high is 42.9F, compared to 43.0F in the blend, and 11.5 inches of snow v. the blend forecast of 8.5 inches for December.

[raindancewx]

On 12/9/2019 at 7:08 PM, raindancewx said:

Looking at local data, I'm expecting the type of unusual pattern in the Southwest US in the second half of November 2019, with tropical moisture coming up from the subtropical jet, but trailing, and not quite phasing with strong Northern stream storms, to return in January. I have a couple reasons for this....

Overall, Jan 4-5, 11-12,17-20, and 29 look like the windows for big storms like in late November....

Looks good - huge SOI drop 12/22-12/24 supports a storm around 1/3 or 1/4 in the SW. GFS is already showing something in that time frame, as far out as it is.

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
24 Dec 2019	1008.40	1008.85	-21.64	-5.33	-6.12
23 Dec 2019	1009.75	1007.95	-9.97	-4.97	-5.81
22 Dec 2019	1009.29	1007.80	-11.57	-4.77	-5.73

[raindancewx]

December looks fairly similar to anti-1997, with 1940/1976 working fairly well as a blend so far. I doubt January will be as cold as the 1941/1977 blend or anti-1998 would imply.

Long term, a positive NAO in December is a pretty strong warm signal for the mid-south in January. NAO is around +1 for December so far. I do think there are some good cold shots in January, but we'll see. A negative SOI December is a weak warm signal for the Northern half of the US in January too, not much of a cold signal anywhere though.

 

[raindancewx]

The 100-180W waters below the surface in the Tropical Pacific look like they'll come in around +0.3 for December 2019. Using the data, a blend of 1986, 1991, 2000, 2012, 2018 looks pretty close to 2019 for Oct-Dec.

100W-180W	Oct	Nov	Dec
1986	0.95	0.52	0.97
1991	1.41	1.22	1.71
2000	-0.37	-0.67	-0.96
2000	-0.37	-0.67	-0.96
2012	0.40	0.34	-0.27
2018	1.59	1.36	1.06
Blend	0.60	0.35	0.26
2019	0.70	0.26	0.30

The blend looks somewhat like what the CFS is showing for January 2020, although it will change its mind 20+ times by 1/1/2020. Want to see the final number next week for the subsurface, but the blend is warm in the middle of the US, somewhat cooler east/west.

The SOI has gone ballistic in recent days. A blend of Oct-Dec 1951 & 1957 is currently close, but should continue to change through 12/31. Those values of -20 for consecutive days are typically trouble for someone in the US.

Year        Oct    Nov    Dec
1957     -0.3    -11.0    -4.3
1951     -12.3    -8.5    -8.3
Blend     -6.3    -9.8    -6.3
2019      -5.2    -9.5    -6.7

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
26 Dec 2019	1007.10	1008.85	-28.39	-6.48	-6.79
25 Dec 2019	1006.63	1008.30	-27.97	-5.81	-6.46
24 Dec 2019	1008.40	1008.85	-21.64	-5.33	-6.12
23 Dec 2019	1009.75	1007.95	-9.97	-4.97	-5.81
22 Dec 2019	1009.29	1007.80	-11.57	-4.77	-5.73
21 Dec 2019	1009.10	1008.15	-14.38	-4.47	-5.65
20 Dec 2019	1010.74	1008.65	-8.46	-4.38	-5.62
19 Dec 2019	1010.39	1008.00	-6.90	-4.76	-5.74
18 Dec 2019	1009.79	1007.60	-7.94	-5.44	-5.98
17 Dec 2019	1008.73	1007.60	-13.44	-6.09	-6.28
16 Dec 2019	1008.58	1007.75	-15.00	-5.94	-6.36
15 Dec 2019	1009.50	1008.65	-14.90	-5.38	-6.30
14 Dec 2019	1010.24	1008.70	-11.31	-4.87	-6.20
13 Dec 2019	1010.74	1007.75	-3.79	-4.71	-6.20
12 Dec 2019	1011.38	1007.85	-0.99	-4.92	-6.46
11 Dec 2019	1012.71	1008.00	5.14	-5.19	-6.77
10 Dec 2019	1012.35	1009.10	-2.44	-5.68	-7.10
9 Dec 2019	1012.01	1009.20	-4.72	-6.09	-7.20
8 Dec 2019	1013.30	1008.65	4.83	-6.30	-7.27
7 Dec 2019	1014.25	1009.15	7.16	-6.46	-7.56
6 Dec 2019	1014.24	1009.75	4.00	-6.17	-7.88
5 Dec 2019	1012.70	1010.55	-8.15	-6.53	-8.09
4 Dec 2019	1012.06	1009.10	-3.95	-7.41	-8.12
3 Dec 2019	1012.67	1007.20	9.08	-8.42	-8.21
2 Dec 2019	1012.38	1007.35	6.80	-9.07	-8.48
1 Dec 2019	1012.31	1007.80	4.10	-9.40	-8.74

[raindancewx]

CFS continues to trend to a very warm January for the East. Warm ~entire East January is not a common outcome in El Nino years.

Since 1930, it has happened in January 1931, 1946, 1952, 1964, 1992, 1995, 1998.

2012-13 isn't an El Nino, but it had the +IOD and a similar (colder) subsurface trajectory Oct-Dec. 1954, 1964, 1993, 1995, 1998, 2013 as a January blend may be what it is trying to do. Most of these years already had a lot of Eastern warmth, more than this year, in December. So I remain skeptical of the CFS solution. 

If you shift the warmth it shows to the NW somewhat and weaken the warmth everywhere, it looks like the El Nino 'warm East' January composite, which may be where the CFS is going. Not what I forecast - but we'll see what happens. If you throw out January 1946 and 1964, the weakest "warm East January" analogs, the composite shifts east.

The 1930-31 El Nino was an El Nino following an El Nino. 1994-95 followed a neutral/warm Neutral. So did 1991-92. 1997-98 & 1994-95 had very strong positive IOD fall patterns, like 2019. So it 'makes sense' as a blend. Except 1991-92, all low solar years - 60 sunspots/year or less. Warm AMO years too.

Canadian will be out 12/31 - will be interesting to see what it shows. Looks like the weeklies on the CFS are pretty cold in the SW as my methods and the composites above show.

[raindancewx]

Cold water is gone from Nino 3.4 once again. Ties in well with the big SOI response after the positive readings Dec 1-10.

[raindancewx]

In an SOI sense, December has gone from a La Nina state in 2018 (+9.2) to an El Nino state in 2019 (-7.0 or so). The December SOI is highly correlated to temperatures in the following February for the NW & SE US.  The +9.2 SOI was the only historical early indicator of the hot East / frigid West February last year.

Even though the correlation map doesn't show it, the SW tends to get very cold when there is a flip from a La Nina to an El Nino (<=26.0C DJF in Nino 3.4 to >=27.0C DF in Nino 3.4 in one year). The biggest Nino 3.4 warm ups in a single year, from cold to warm, include, in recent years, 2006, 2009, 2018 - all quite cold here. I'll be very curious to see if there is a cold February out here in light of the "SOI base state" going from La Nina to El Nino. 

The top SOI flips Dec/Dec that match 2018/2019 well in the past 100 years include 1946, 1957, 1989, 1997, 2001, 2004, 2009. In a timing sense, Aug 16-Sept 15 has matched the Dec 2019 pattern fairly well for US temps, the CFS January forecast looks a lot like Sept 16-Oct 15. So if the CFS is right for January and the timing pattern holds, I'd expect Oct 16-Nov 15 to look like February 2020 - a frigid month for the central US. As a composite, the years I listed for the SOI Dec/Dec change favor the entire South cold and the entire North cold in February. I'd expect a blend of the two for February, maybe one part of the month is very cold across the entire South, VA to CA, and the other part of the month is very cold between the Rockies & the Mississippi.

CPC uses 26.65C as the basis for Nino 3.4 average in December. So ~27.15C or so on the weeklies should count as a +0.5C month. ONI for OND will likely be right around +0.5C, despite CPC insisting on a 70% odds of Neutral conditions in Fall. CPC also tends to warm up the most recent old month or two by 0.05C or so when the new data comes in, which helps with the likelihood of a +0.5C reading.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 27NOV2019     22.5 0.4     25.4 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.3 0.8
 04DEC2019     22.5 0.1     25.3 0.2     26.9 0.3     29.4 0.9
 11DEC2019     23.1 0.5     25.5 0.4     27.1 0.5     29.5 1.0
 18DEC2019     23.3 0.4     25.5 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.5 1.1
 25DEC2019     23.5 0.3     25.5 0.2     27.0 0.4     29.4 1.0

The weekly site doesn't have the new numbers, but they are here - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Here is the simplest blend I could find using El Nino-ish years that look like the CFS for January. 1951, 1957 are the top SOI matches Oct-Dec. 1992, 2018 are the top matches from my winter forecast. I threw in 1905 for some other reasons. If you want a super recent blend that matches the CFS, January 2013/2017 is close too. I suspect the colder blend is more realistic but we'll see. Also think the CFS might be pretty wrong.

The top SOI match for Oct-Nov-Dec (pending 12/31) is likely 1951/1957. The January 1952/1958 blend looks a lot like what the CFS has. I mentioned this in one of the regional threads, but the Dec temperature map will bear a lot of resemblance to 8/16-9/15. The CFS January forecast looks a lot like 9/16-10/15, Cold West / Warm East. February would then be the 10/16-11/15 period i.e. it would be very cold in the middle of the US. This is all assuming the CFS is right for January. These aren't exact matches, but it shows a cycling pattern if the CFS is right. The -SOI in December is also a much colder signal for February 2020 compared to last year.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian has El Nino conditions through January, and then La Nina developing in April/May 2020

It is on board with the CFS for the cold West / hot East January pattern. Interestingly it sort of had that look figured out Nov 30.

So far, my precipitation forecast for winter from October 12th, 2019 has been going better than my temperature forecast (I had Warm/Cold/Warm for West,Central,East respectively in December - the cold didn't really verify Central). Will be interesting to see if that continues.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thought y'all might find this interesting...

 

https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html