2019 ENSO

[raindancewx]

The negative PDO in winter correlates to a warm Southeast and a cold Northwest - with the NAO forcing a more winter styled pattern in October when it was negative, that was exactly what we saw in October with the PDO negative. Saying "the PDO has been positive since 2014" completely misses the point. The trend is down. Look at the transition by Nov-Apr:

2012-13: -0.40

2013-14:  +0.38

2014-15: +2.07

2015-16: +1.70

2016-17: +1.07

2017-18: +0.30

2018-19: +0.51

2019-20: Since 1931, there are no Nov-Apr periods above +0.5 after the PDO is 0 to -1 in October. It will probably be right around 0 or somewhat negative. A cold Nino 1.2 in October also strongly favors that the PDO values in Fall will fall from winter/spring.

So far, the cold in November is exactly where you'd expect it to be based on a strong negative SOI in September. Look at the green areas on the SOI map and the places in the US that are cold. I'd imagine once all the warm lows and moisture come out from our storms this week in the Southwest, quite a bit of the cold will burn off, but we'll see. I don't think the models have that built in yet.

We're still not that different from last year this Fall - the PDO went negative for a brief moment last year too after all, although not to -0.45.

[raindancewx]

200m+ of warm water below the surface basically east of 130W now. Much less warmth from 130W-170W., with actually a lot of cold. There is a push of warm water moving East, but I think you have to assume there will be a fairly rapid transition to, or at least toward an East based El Nino starting in December. The cold water should at least thin the warmth at the surface over time by Nino 4. There is still some cold water at the surface near South America, so the warmth won't win out initially, but it should in the next few weeks. The event could end up basin-wide again, like last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up East based late in the winter. It seems like it takes about ~one week for every 10m of warm/cold subsurface water to surface. So you'd be looking at an East-based El Nino or even a 2016-17 pattern (warm by Indonesia, warm by Peru, cold Middle) by February. That would be consistent with my analogs which had a big warm up nationally in mid or late winter.

[raindancewx]

Pretty much identical this week to 2018 outside Nino 1.2 
The warmth below Nino 3 is surfacing now. Warm pool to the West should thin then re-develop.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1
 02OCT2019     20.0-0.6     25.1 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.0
 09OCT2019     19.7-1.0     24.8-0.1     27.1 0.4     29.5 0.9
 16OCT2019     20.6-0.2     25.3 0.4     27.5 0.8     29.7 1.1
 23OCT2019     19.7-1.3     25.0 0.1     27.3 0.6     29.7 1.0
 30OCT2019     20.8-0.4     25.4 0.5     27.4 0.7     29.6 0.9
 06NOV2019     20.7-0.6     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 13NOV2019     20.9-0.6     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.6 0.9

 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9

[Daniel Boone]

Radiance, first off, kudos on the work u put into this. Good stuff !

    The biggest difference this winter compared to last I believe is going to be blocking. Enough of it and you can have cold cover much of the U.S., coast to coast, including the upper Southeast even with a -PNA. Ala., 1978-79. Of course on back, the '60's featured this fairly consistent. Blocking was so strong  it congested the flow to create a +PNA at times with a -PDO background . 

 Of course, as so many make a point of, we are in a warmer Climate era now so, things are different now. Yes, this is true but, a watered down version to the pattern those years is still possible. Also, we are in a decent Solar Minimum now and let's not forget the descending QBO.

     

[raindancewx]

These are (tentative) top SOI monthly matches for Sept/Oct/Nov objectively, for the past 90 years or so -

Year    Sept      Oct     Nov    Distance
2019    -12.7    -5.2     -9.0     0.0
1951    -11.2   -12.3    -8.5     9.1
1987    -10.6    -5.3     -1.5     9.7
1932    -8.3      -4.1     -4.6     9.9
2014    -6.6      -8.2     -8.0    10.1
1957    -9.4      -0.3     -11.0  10.2
1953    -13.0    -0.3     -2.7    11.5

Looks familiar to me...although I didn't forecast this exactly for December. I do expect the composite warmth/cold to be shifted somewhat east.

SOI has had some really impressive negative bursts this month:

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
19 Nov 2019	1008.38	1009.80	-27.36	-8.52	-8.87
18 Nov 2019	1009.78	1011.20	-27.36	-7.24	-8.68
17 Nov 2019	1012.24	1010.80	-9.17	-5.97	-8.53
16 Nov 2019	1013.57	1010.40	1.84	-5.59	-8.31
15 Nov 2019	1012.81	1009.85	0.51	-5.56	-8.25
14 Nov 2019	1012.31	1010.45	-6.49	-5.67	-8.17
13 Nov 2019	1012.54	1011.25	-10.12	-5.90	-8.28
12 Nov 2019	1011.94	1010.50	-9.17	-5.76	-8.39
11 Nov 2019	1011.42	1010.05	-9.61	-5.18	-8.48
10 Nov 2019	1011.08	1010.50	-14.64	-4.71	-8.51
9 Nov 2019	1011.85	1010.70	-11.01	-4.37	-8.38
8 Nov 2019	1013.13	1010.25	-0.00	-4.38	-8.23
7 Nov 2019	1013.77	1008.40	15.84	-4.69	-8.01
6 Nov 2019	1011.56	1009.75	-6.81	-5.28	-7.93
5 Nov 2019	1008.71	1011.25	-34.49	-5.28	-7.64
4 Nov 2019	1008.28	1010.80	-34.36	-4.51	-7.07
3 Nov 2019	1010.91	1009.65	-10.31	-4.05	-6.62
2 Nov 2019	1011.56	1009.15	-2.99	-4.37	-6.53
1 Nov 2019	1011.89	1008.60	2.61	-4.95	-6.63

[raindancewx]

One thing that I can't help but notice with last Fall is how well each two week period corresponded to Winter 2018-19. Will be very interesting to see if that happens again with some similar features (AMO, Solar, ENSO, IOD, MJO timing) to last year. H1 October was February - not as extreme, but close (a lot of the blue areas in Feb were 10-25 below average)

In December, the placement was somewhat different, but the cold West Texas warm North idea was there - its just the heat moved East. If the heat had been centered a bit East over ND in H2 October, the cold would have shot up into the West.

The first half of November looked like a de-amplified January, with warm coasts and a much colder middle of the US.

If the timing relationships were to hold, January & February would be the similar months to last year. December would be very different - with the center of the US very cold, warmer on the coasts (that's what my forecast had, by the way).

Here is a look at how this has played out in some recent El Ninos for December

2015 (H2 Oct v. Dec)  - similar shift East of the heat like in 2018.

2014 (H2 Oct v. Dec) - some shift in the heat again to the East.

Again, some shift east in the heat over Montana in 2009. 

Now, here is 2019 - I think you have to expect the cold center over Kansas to move East given the recent history? So slightly warm coasts, cold middle. That was my forecast too.

 

[raindancewx]

Not looking great for people forecasting a dry winter in the Southwest. If the storm forecast over NM verifies next week, we may have record November precipitation for Albuquerque for the last 100 years. Already at 1.25" (average is 0.46"), and the record is 1.93". Already top five for wetness. 

Long-term, November precipitation tends to indicate January precipitation here fairly well too. Not to mention the fact that May precipitation here is highly correlated (r-squared near 0.3) to Nov-Jan precipitation totals here. Wet May here favors warm East/tornado patterns fairly often.

Here is the composite for what follows after particularly wet Novembers in Albuquerque. It stays wet. Pretty El Nino-y too, which is shocking. It's not really that surprising though, this has been signaled since September - a big -SOI September is strongly correlated to a very wet January in the West, especially Northern California.

[raindancewx]

CFS is starting to go to my December forecast, with a cold center of the US. Here is the scary thing: it has a big +SOI (La Nina) in December. That happened last year. If it happens again, the South will roast later in the winter. See how the red is by 150W, 15S and the blue is by Australia around 15S? That's where Darwin & Tahiti are.

In December 2018, Darwin was 1006.2 MB, and Tahiti was 1011.7 MB for a +9.14 SOI. Map below has ~1006 for Darwin and ~1012 for Tahiti.

 

[raindancewx]

Some re-development of the warmth below the surface, but that little cold area may make it up anyway. That's kind of what happened in 1992-93, which was very similar to this year in June-Sept at the surface, before a small cold area showed up Nino 3.4 at the surface in winter. Then, in early 1993, more warmth surfaced and El Nino returned.

[raindancewx]

We've fallen off the pace of last year, except in Nino 4. Still West-based overall, but the heat is getting to Nino 1.2 now.
SOI 11/1-11/25 is about -10 - solidly El Nino by that measure.

Also, the European has been showing 9.0 inches of snow for Albuquerque (last two runs) through Thanksgiving morning. 
Don't really buy it, but if I'm wrong, that's a season of snow, and that is correlated to lower snow in the NE US in El Ninos.

              Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1
 02OCT2019     20.0-0.6     25.1 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.0
 09OCT2019     19.7-1.0     24.8-0.1     27.1 0.4     29.5 0.9
 16OCT2019     20.6-0.2     25.3 0.4     27.5 0.8     29.7 1.1
 23OCT2019     19.7-1.3     25.0 0.1     27.3 0.6     29.7 1.0
 30OCT2019     20.8-0.4     25.4 0.5     27.4 0.7     29.6 0.9
 06NOV2019     20.7-0.6     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 13NOV2019     20.9-0.6     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.6 0.9
 20NOV2019     21.7-0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.7     29.5 1.0

 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9
 21NOV2018     22.6 0.8     26.3 1.3     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.0

[raindancewx]

Weaker and more West based than last year, but certainly a Modoki El Nino at least for Fall (we seem to be transitioning to a basin-wide look though for actual winter).

Japan uses 165E-140W, 10N-10S as their Nino 3.4 ("Box A") - that zone is definitely in an El Nino look. The waters by Peru are colder too. So more of a Modoki than last year. Will be curious to see if the +SOI the CFS continues to show for December has to do with the Indian Ocean Dipole flipping this month, hard to get the Australia part of the +SOI without that. 

[raindancewx]

For anyone curious, here is a list of the major Indian Ocean Dipole events in Sept-Nov for 1880-2004. This is built into my analog system when I look at the Pacific to some extent, although I don't give it much weight in winter, except as a tie-breaker. It's more important in Fall. Part of how I had 1994 last year.

https://iri.columbia.edu/~blyon/REFERENCES/P38.pdf

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

We've fallen off the pace of last year, except in Nino 4. Still West-based overall, but the heat is getting to Nino 1.2 now.
SOI 11/1-11/25 is about -10 - solidly El Nino by that measure.

Also, the European has been showing 9.0 inches of snow for Albuquerque (last two runs) through Thanksgiving morning. 
Don't really buy it, but if I'm wrong, that's a season of snow, and that is correlated to lower snow in the NE US in El Ninos.

              Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1
 02OCT2019     20.0-0.6     25.1 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.0
 09OCT2019     19.7-1.0     24.8-0.1     27.1 0.4     29.5 0.9
 16OCT2019     20.6-0.2     25.3 0.4     27.5 0.8     29.7 1.1
 23OCT2019     19.7-1.3     25.0 0.1     27.3 0.6     29.7 1.0
 30OCT2019     20.8-0.4     25.4 0.5     27.4 0.7     29.6 0.9
 06NOV2019     20.7-0.6     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 13NOV2019     20.9-0.6     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.6 0.9
 20NOV2019     21.7-0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.7     29.5 1.0

 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9
 14NOV2018     22.2 0.6     25.8 0.8     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.9
 21NOV2018     22.6 0.8     26.3 1.3     27.9 1.3     29.6 1.0

Well it looks like the NE may be getting some snow Sunday-Monday.

[raindancewx]

SOI is -9.8 for the past 30-days, -9.3 for the past 90 days, and -10 for November to date.

I've got 7.5 inches of snow in my backyard, with near record precipitation for November (1.65") through 11 am 11/28. A lot of that near record precipitation is snow...which is certainly more of an El Nino thing than a Neutral thing here -

PDO still looks somewhat negative to me for November - you can have warm waters on the NW North America coast if they are relatively cold compared to waters off to their West and have a -PDO month. It's a relational calculation, not absolute like ENSO, where warm is El Nino, cold is La Nina.

Subsurface still looks warm to me. The little cold pocket is going to get its ass kicked in the coming weeks. The warm waters continue to surface by Peru as we transition out of the Modoki El Nino to a basin wide event.

[raindancewx]

The CFS is still showing a +SOI look for December. Part of me thinks some kind of reigning in of the subtropical jet stream is due. November 2019 has just topped 1991 to become the wettest November in over 100 years in Albuquerque - and it happened in essentially two weeks.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian Model has the El Nino for winter now.

I don't think this is right, but it has the "Nino 4 warm" pattern, with the US roasting in December, except the SW. Interestingly, it has the NE somewhat cooler. I think there will be more cold in the middle of the US than shown, a lot of snow pack is coming to the middle of the US and western Canada from what I can see.

11.30 run for Dec

10.31 run for Dec

The winter look is a drier 2004.

Last year, the November idea for Dec-Feb wasn't completely wrong, for what its worth.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/29/2019 at 3:32 PM, raindancewx said:

The CFS is still showing a +SOI look for December. Part of me thinks some kind of reigning in of the subtropical jet stream is due. November 2019 has just topped 1991 to become the wettest November in over 100 years in Albuquerque - and it happened in essentially two weeks.

Didn't the end of November 1991 have  a big snowstorm in Minnesota, similar to what's happening now?  I remember reading that many are comparing the two events.

 

[raindancewx]

The 10/31 forecast from the Canadian for November, as well as the 11/30 forecast for December both look like a blend of 1965 & 2018 on that model.

The Canadian forecast from 11.30.18 for December 2018 was actually pretty bad, unlike the winter forecast.

The subsurface data for November came in for 100-180W, top 300m. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

Best blend I could find was this -

100-180W	Sept	Oct	Nov
1986	0.65	0.95	0.52
1986	0.65	0.95	0.52
1991	0.60	1.41	1.22
1991	0.60	1.41	1.22
1991	0.60	1.41	1.22
1991	0.60	1.41	1.22
1998	-2.15	-2.35	-2.33
2005	-0.33	-0.14	-0.57
2005	-0.33	-0.14	-0.57
Blend	0.10	0.55	0.27
2019	0.00	0.70	0.26

Crazily enough...it looks identical to last year? So I am skeptical. I tried to respect the subsurface features though - big warm up in October and then the big cool down in November.

 

 

[Hoosier]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't the end of November 1991 have  a big snowstorm in Minnesota, similar to what's happening now?  I remember reading that many are comparing the two events.

 

There were big storms there at the end of October and November in 1991.  The first one was bigger though.  

[raindancewx]

Nov 1991: 1.93" precip in Albuquerque. Nov 2019: 1.99" precip in Albuquerque. (1991 was the record for Nov here for the past 100 years).

I think because the IOD is enhancing the response you'd get from the subtropical jet-stream for an El Nino this weak, 1991 is probably a good precipitation analog nationally. Not really convinced for temperatures.

The models depicting a positive SOI for December may not be too wrong - it looks neutral to positive for most of the next ten days on the European, although their might be one big drop in a a couple days which would support a big storm in the SW mid-month, and then maybe a pattern change nationally.

The Canadian may actually be trying to do 1965, 2018 for its forecasts because of the SOI pattern.

SOI        Sept     Oct        Nov
1965     -13.5    -11.0    -16.7
2018     -8.5      +2.6      +0.6
Blend    -11.0    -4.2       -8.1
2019    -12.7     -5.2       -9.5

[raindancewx]

SOI has popped positive...

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
2 Dec 2019	1012.38	1007.35	6.80	-9.07	-8.48
1 Dec 2019	1012.31	1007.80	4.10	-9.40	-8.74

QBO is still positive. Looks like 2002 more than 1995 now.

1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57

2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50

2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25    7.27    5.07 -999.00

Solar activity for the six months to Nov 2019, was the lowest six month average (0.8/month) in any six-month period since Jun-Nov 1823 according to the SILSO data. The 12-month average to November 2019 was down to 3.8, lower than the 5.5 in the period ending November 2008.

PDO still looks slightly negative in November. Warmth east of Japan shouldn't be there in a warm PDO, and the ring of warmth right along the Western North American coast isn't there, the warmth is in the 'east of Japan' area and it fades toward Alaska & Canada. Compared to last November, I'd say the PDO is more negative this year, and it was -0.05 in Nov 2018.

Nino 1.2 has popped positive, right in time for Christmas, as our Peruvian friends have been observing for hundreds of years. The reading for Nino 3.4 is probably going to be about 27.25C on the monthly data, which I would consider an El Nino reading, given the 1951-2010 November average SST in Nino 3.4 is 26.5C. CPC uses 26.75C as their baseline (it is the 1986-2015 average) in November. So it's real close either way. The little cold pocket of water that has been showing up below Nino 3.4 does seem to be surfacing as the warmth to the east surfaces, so this is becoming less of a Modoki El Nino by the day at this point for now.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1
 02OCT2019     20.0-0.6     25.1 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.0
 09OCT2019     19.7-1.0     24.8-0.1     27.1 0.4     29.5 0.9
 16OCT2019     20.6-0.2     25.3 0.4     27.5 0.8     29.7 1.1
 23OCT2019     19.7-1.3     25.0 0.1     27.3 0.6     29.7 1.0
 30OCT2019     20.8-0.4     25.4 0.5     27.4 0.7     29.6 0.9
 06NOV2019     20.7-0.6     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7
 13NOV2019     20.9-0.6     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.8     29.6 0.9
 20NOV2019     21.7-0.1     25.6 0.6     27.4 0.7     29.5 1.0
 27NOV2019     22.5 0.4     25.4 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.3 0.8

[UniversesBelowNormal]

2019 ENSO cancel lol

[weathafella]

Raindance, regarding the Boston correlation, seasonal total now 7.1 on 12/3.

[raindancewx]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Raindance, regarding the Boston correlation, seasonal total now 7.1 on 12/3.

I saw. My analog blend of 1953-54 (x2), 1983-84 (x2), 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-10 (x3), 2018-19 had Boston at 8.5 inches in December, and about 40 in total. So I don't see any big issues for what I had yet.

CPC has ONI at +0.3C now for SON.

They raised October as I expected, from this -

2019   8   26.91   26.91    0.00
2019   9   26.77   26.80   -0.03
2019  10   27.19   26.75    0.44

To this -

2019   8   26.91   26.91    0.00
2019   9   26.77   26.80   -0.03
2019  10   27.22   26.75    0.46
2019  11   27.23   26.75    0.48

Not much. Keep in mind, long-term averages for Oct-Feb in Nino 3.4 temps are 26.5C - so this borderline event in ONI sense is warmer than several events considered El Ninos historically.

1977   9   27.11   26.51    0.60
1977  10   27.34   26.48    0.86
1977  11   27.18   26.46    0.72

1969   9   27.15   26.34    0.81
1969  10   27.34   26.33    1.01
1969  11   27.11   26.35    0.76

1968   9   26.72   26.34    0.38
1968  10   26.75   26.33    0.42
1968  11   27.20   26.35    0.85

1958   9   26.40   26.15    0.25
1958  10   26.45   26.03    0.41
1958  11   26.75   26.10    0.65

1953   9   27.00   26.14    0.85
1953  10   26.87   26.01    0.86
1953  11   26.88   26.06    0.82

1951   9   27.22   26.14    1.08
1951  10   27.20   26.01    1.19
1951  11   27.25   26.06    1.19

In more recent times, we're pretty close to 2004, 2006, 2014.

2014   9   27.01   26.80    0.21
2014  10   27.16   26.75    0.40
2014  11   27.46   26.75    0.71

2006   9   27.32   26.80    0.52
2006  10   27.42   26.75    0.66
2006  11   27.70   26.75    0.95

2004   9   27.52   26.80    0.72
2004  10   27.44   26.75    0.68
2004  11   27.36   26.75    0.61

 

[weathafella]

Good luck.  It will have to be a pretty quiet rest of the month to be that low but it certainly can happen.  Obviously I hope you’re wrong  but I respect the methodology.

[raindancewx]

If you weight the four Nino zones equally, Sept-Nov, these are the top matches. It's probably not the right approach since Nino 4 and Nino 3 make up Nino 3.4, and all the other zones are much bigger than Nino 1.2

Year       Sept    Oct         Nov      Sept      Oct         Nov      Sept        Oct       Nov     Sept      Oct         Nov    Blend
2019    29.34    29.52    29.46    26.76    27.22    27.23    24.64    25.14    25.42    20.03    20.27    21.43    0.00
1977    28.95    29.04    29.02    27.12    27.35    27.19    24.87    25.25    25.30    19.61    20.54    21.19    3.23
1990    28.98    29.15    29.20    26.94    26.93    26.81    25.02    24.84    24.90    20.24    20.31    21.00    3.76
2003    28.94    29.12    29.07    26.99    27.14    27.04    25.05    25.38    25.75    20.28    21.25    21.94    4.41
2012    28.97    29.07    29.00    27.10    26.98    26.86    25.24    25.00    25.08    20.79    20.65    21.24    4.64
1968    28.57    28.69    29.10    26.72    26.75    27.20    24.82    24.96    25.15    21.05    20.87    21.56    4.88
2004    29.45    29.46    29.45    27.53    27.44    27.36    25.35    25.52    25.73    20.46    21.16    22.37    4.96

Left to right, the data is Nino 4, then 3.4, then 3, then 1.2. The blend of the years above is a warm East cold NW look for December, which I don't really buy.

Here are the top Nino 4 matches - blended this is essentially what the CFS/Canadian had for December

2019

1994

2004

2002

2006

1987

2018

Here are the top Nino 3.4 matches - its literally the exact opposite look of the CFS/Canadian, as well as last year.

2019

2003

1951

1977

2014

1968

1969

My winter forecast had a cold middle of the US in December, with the coasts warm, and the '0' line around the mountains - Appalachians and Rockies. We'll see.

 

 

[raindancewx]

Here is monthly SST anomalies in Nino 3.4, through November 2019, using the stable 1951-2010 base I prefer. If you notice, the US roasted in Aug-Sept when El Nino conditions broke by this standard. Once they returned in October, ferocious cold returned to the pattern immediately - it's part of why I tend to look at 27.0C in the Oct-Feb as the 'on' switch for tropical forcing from Nino 3.4

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I saw. My analog blend of 1953-54 (x2), 1983-84 (x2), 1992-93, 1995-96, 2009-10 (x3), 2018-19 had Boston at 8.5 inches in December, and about 40 in total. So I don't see any big issues for what I had yet.

CPC has ONI at +0.3C now for SON.

They raised October as I expected, from this -

2019   8   26.91   26.91    0.00
2019   9   26.77   26.80   -0.03
2019  10   27.19   26.75    0.44

To this -

2019   8   26.91   26.91    0.00
2019   9   26.77   26.80   -0.03
2019  10   27.22   26.75    0.46
2019  11   27.23   26.75    0.48

Not much. Keep in mind, long-term averages for Oct-Feb in Nino 3.4 temps are 26.5C - so this borderline event in ONI sense is warmer than several events considered El Ninos historically.

1977   9   27.11   26.51    0.60
1977  10   27.34   26.48    0.86
1977  11   27.18   26.46    0.72

1969   9   27.15   26.34    0.81
1969  10   27.34   26.33    1.01
1969  11   27.11   26.35    0.76

1968   9   26.72   26.34    0.38
1968  10   26.75   26.33    0.42
1968  11   27.20   26.35    0.85

1958   9   26.40   26.15    0.25
1958  10   26.45   26.03    0.41
1958  11   26.75   26.10    0.65

1953   9   27.00   26.14    0.85
1953  10   26.87   26.01    0.86
1953  11   26.88   26.06    0.82

1951   9   27.22   26.14    1.08
1951  10   27.20   26.01    1.19
1951  11   27.25   26.06    1.19

In more recent times, we're pretty close to 2004, 2006, 2014.

2014   9   27.01   26.80    0.21
2014  10   27.16   26.75    0.40
2014  11   27.46   26.75    0.71

2006   9   27.32   26.80    0.52
2006  10   27.42   26.75    0.66
2006  11   27.70   26.75    0.95

2004   9   27.52   26.80    0.72
2004  10   27.44   26.75    0.68
2004  11   27.36   26.75    0.61

 

I wouldn't worry yet if I were towu, either....we saw what happened after one early storm to kick off last year.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The QBO value is nearing the -5 to +5 range. The QBO value as of November 2019 is +5.07. Let's see if the QBO can go a little lower for December. 

[raindancewx]

SOI has dropped some again after starting off pretty positive in December. Should be a big storm around 12/14 or 12/15 over the SW. New European ENSO plume from 12/1 should also be available publicly soon. I remain convinced that the +9 SOI last December is responsible for the warm-east/cold-west February look in 2019. If the SOI doesn't pop, a more canonical El Nino February is likely. 17 out of 18 years with an SOI over 8 in December see a warm February in at least parts of the South, all the way back to 1931. 

5 Dec 2019	1012.70	1010.55	-8.15	-6.53	-8.09
4 Dec 2019	1012.06	1009.10	-3.95	-7.41	-8.12
3 Dec 2019	1012.67	1007.20	9.08	-8.42	-8.21
2 Dec 2019	1012.38	1007.35	6.80	-9.07	-8.48
1 Dec 2019	1012.31	1007.80	4.10	-9.40	-8.74