2019 ENSO

[UniversesBelowNormal]

I was surprised to see the El Nino's resurgence. +PNA from 2013-2017 did not hold in non-El Nino conditions. These are on models for the next 15 days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, UniversesBelowNormal said:

I was surprised to see the El Nino's resurgence. +PNA from 2013-2017 did not hold in non-El Nino conditions. These are on models for the next 15 days. 

I wasn't suprised at all.

[UniversesBelowNormal]

I'm surprised you all see the same thing.. 

[raindancewx]

This event does look a lot colder than last by SSTs, it's kind of interesting that the SOI response has been better so far. That may just have to do with how cold it is in Nino 1.2 relative to Nino 4. That 29.5C v. 20.2C spread in October has got to be a record.

Nino 4 is literally almost as warm as October in the Super Nino of 2015-16, while Nino 1.2 is literally almost as cold as in October 2017-18. The 2017-18 temperatures in Nino 1.2 reached levels that hadn't been seen since 1980 in some months.

 

[raindancewx]

MJO looks about two weeks faster to reach phase six in November than last year. Will be very interesting to see if it stalls in Phase 1 again, like in October. That would probably warm up the South and make the West / Plains frigid again, although shifted a bit east of the late October outbreak.

[raindancewx]

This event may not last too much longer. I think October will eventually be warmed up on the CPC data to 27.3C or so. After that, Nov-Dec look El Nino warm, safely. Jan/Feb/Mar still kind of iffy. Heat is only down to 100m. I'd say we are about due for a) a Strong La Nina and b) a flat Neutral (26.5C) - will be interesting what happens if the warmth doesn't get replenished.

NOAA PDO crashed in October. Will be curious to see the JISAO/Mantua value for October. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

201907	0.42
201908	-0.16
201909	0.03
201910	-0.81

[raindancewx]

Don't look now, but with the MJO different, 2013 now once again looks completely different to 2019 in November. It doesn't look like 2018 or 2014 either. Passing resemblance to 1951, 1967, 2012 though.

[raindancewx]

Latest European run has Nino 4 cooling, Nino 3.4 and 3 warming through November, then cooling, and then Nino 1.2 warming into January before cooling after. It's kind of a "warmth drains East" look. The dashed line tends to verify at the extreme end of the sea surface temperature plume in most months, so I think it's fairly safe that November and December at least see Nino 3.4 above El Nino thresholds. There isn't much warmth below the surface after that though, so some cooling is likely. This event probably won't count as an El Nino by CPC, but it probably is going to count by the Jamstec definition (165E-140W) definition. By my older thresholds (1951-2010), it will probably count, since 26.5C is the average for me I use for Oct-Feb anomalies, while CPC is higher in Fall. The SOI response, right around -8 for the past 90-days, is also consistent with a weak El Nino Modoki setup.

[raindancewx]

On 11/3/2019 at 10:19 PM, raindancewx said:

Date	Tahiti (hPa)	Darwin (hPa)	Daily Contribution	30 day Av. SOI	90 day Av. SOI
4 Nov 2019	1008.28	1010.80	-34.36	-4.51	-7.07
3 Nov 2019	1010.91	1009.65	-10.31	-4.05	-6.62
2 Nov 2019	1011.56	1009.15	-2.99	-4.37	-6.53
1 Nov 2019	1011.89	1008.60	2.61	-4.95	-6.6

Those 20 pt, single day SOI drops are trouble historically. Need to watch for a big time storm mid-month.

 

This is going to verify...in Mexico, and no it isn't relatively common because of the elevation.

[Snowy Hibbo]

23 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

This is going to verify...in Mexico, and no it isn't relatively common because of the elevation.

It’s interesting that those SOI drops occurred while the MJO phase/signal was still over Maritime Continent. 
You could certainly argue a Nino-esque tropical atmosphere at least at the surface, because that’s certainly not how it is panning out in the extratropics, with a lack of momentum being quite obvious in the GSDM.

 

[raindancewx]

Models had shown Nino 4 cooling. It has a bit. If that continues, a colder December is possible nationally.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1
 02OCT2019     20.0-0.6     25.1 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.0
 09OCT2019     19.7-1.0     24.8-0.1     27.1 0.4     29.5 0.9
 16OCT2019     20.6-0.2     25.3 0.4     27.5 0.8     29.7 1.1
 23OCT2019     19.7-1.3     25.0 0.1     27.3 0.6     29.7 1.0
 30OCT2019     20.8-0.4     25.4 0.5     27.4 0.7     29.6 0.9
 06NOV2019     20.7-0.6     25.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.3 0.7

 26SEP2018     20.2-0.3     25.5 0.6     27.3 0.6     29.3 0.6
 03OCT2018     21.3 0.7     25.6 0.7     27.4 0.7     29.5 0.8
 10OCT2018     21.1 0.4     25.6 0.7     27.3 0.6     29.5 0.9
 17OCT2018     21.1 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.6 0.9     29.6 0.9
 24OCT2018     21.3 0.3     25.9 1.0     27.7 1.1     29.8 1.1
 31OCT2018     21.4 0.2     25.9 0.9     27.8 1.2     29.8 1.1
 07NOV2018     22.1 0.8     25.8 0.9     27.4 0.8     29.5 0.9

 

[raindancewx]

My winter analogs included several years that featured snows in the Southwest around November 20th, way back when I did my winter forecast in early October. I weighted the years 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018. So assumed it was close to 50/50 we'd get snow here around 11/20. Looks promising so far on the models.

https://www.scribd.com/document/429712619/Winter-2019-20-Outlook

The Raw Snow Data: 

2018 6  (Dec 2, Dec 26, Dec 27, Jan 1, Feb 19, Feb 22)
2009 11 (Oct 29, Dec 8, Dec 23, Jan 22, Jan 23, Feb 3, Feb 4, Feb 7, Mar 11, Mar 20, Mar 24)
1995 7  (Dec 17, Dec 18, Dec 31, Jan 1, Feb 1, Feb 2, Mar 6)
1992 13 (Nov 4, Nov 20, Nov 21, Dec 4, Dec 5, Dec 12, Dec 15, Dec 16, Dec 19, Jan 13, Feb 15, Feb 28, Mar 1)
1983 7  (Nov 19, Nov 26, Dec 25, Jan 14, Jan 16, Mar 18, Apr 26)
1953 9   (Nov 18, Nov 19, Nov 20, Nov 21, Dec 5, Dec 11, Jan 12, Jan 13, Jan 20)

Snow Windows Albuquerque:
Nov 18-21
Dec 2-5
Dec 15-19
Dec 25-Jan 1
Jan 12-16
Feb 1-4
Mar 18-20

The SOI support is there too. Over a 10 point drop from 11/8 to 11/10. Should put a big system in the SW US or Mexico around 11/20

12 Nov 2019	1011.94	1010.50	-9.17	-5.76	-8.39
11 Nov 2019	1011.42	1010.05	-9.61	-5.18	-8.48
10 Nov 2019	1011.08	1010.50	-14.64	-4.71	-8.51
9 Nov 2019	1011.85	1010.70	-11.01	-4.37	-8.38
8 Nov 2019	1013.13	1010.25	-0.00	-4.38	-8.23
7 Nov 2019	1013.77	1008.40	15.84	-4.69	-8.01

[UniversesBelowNormal]

Subsurface is pretty classic El Nino configuration. the pattern doesn't feel like a Winter- El Nino above +0.5 though. 

Also colder wave around 160W, -200m may bias short term conditions to more -PNA (vs models)

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My winter analogs included several years that featured snows in the Southwest around November 20th, way back when I did my winter forecast in early October. I weighted the years 1953 (x2), 1983 (x2), 1992, 1995, 2009 (x3), 2018. So assumed it was close to 50/50 we'd get snow here around 11/20. Looks promising so far on the models.

https://www.scribd.com/document/429712619/Winter-2019-20-Outlook

The Raw Snow Data: 

2018 6  (Dec 2, Dec 26, Dec 27, Jan 1, Feb 19, Feb 22)
2009 11 (Oct 29, Dec 8, Dec 23, Jan 22, Jan 23, Feb 3, Feb 4, Feb 7, Mar 11, Mar 20, Mar 24)
1995 7  (Dec 17, Dec 18, Dec 31, Jan 1, Feb 1, Feb 2, Mar 6)
1992 13 (Nov 4, Nov 20, Nov 21, Dec 4, Dec 5, Dec 12, Dec 15, Dec 16, Dec 19, Jan 13, Feb 15, Feb 28, Mar 1)
1983 7  (Nov 19, Nov 26, Dec 25, Jan 14, Jan 16, Mar 18, Apr 26)
1953 9   (Nov 18, Nov 19, Nov 20, Nov 21, Dec 5, Dec 11, Jan 12, Jan 13, Jan 20)

Snow Windows Albuquerque:
Nov 18-21
Dec 2-5
Dec 15-19
Dec 25-Jan 1
Jan 12-16
Feb 1-4
Mar 18-20

The SOI support is there too. Over a 10 point drop from 11/8 to 11/10. Should put a big system in the SW US or Mexico around 11/20

12 Nov 2019	1011.94	1010.50	-9.17	-5.76	-8.39
11 Nov 2019	1011.42	1010.05	-9.61	-5.18	-8.48
10 Nov 2019	1011.08	1010.50	-14.64	-4.71	-8.51
9 Nov 2019	1011.85	1010.70	-11.01	-4.37	-8.38
8 Nov 2019	1013.13	1010.25	-0.00	-4.38	-8.23
7 Nov 2019	1013.77	1008.40	15.84	-4.69	-8.01

Looks like there's a coastal possible around Hatteras in that same 11/20 time frame.

[raindancewx]

It's not perfect, especially in the middle period, but people not including 2018-19 as an analog to this winter are a bit nuts to me. Oct/Nov will probably be ~0.2C different in Nino 3.4? Close to a rounding error. I think the pretty similar to last year honestly, just shifted somewhat east - that's the certainly the impression from the Fall.

Here is 2018 (10/01-10/15, 10/16-10/31, 11/01-11/11):

Here is 2019 (10/01-10/15, 10/16-10/31, 11/01-11/11):

[raindancewx]

Nate Mantua sent out the PDO data for October 2019: https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

So...lowest PDO value since 2013 in any month. -PDO is strongly correlated to a cold NW/warm SE in winter if it continues.

 

2019-01-01T00:00:00Z    0.66
2019-02-01T00:00:00Z    0.46
2019-03-01T00:00:00Z    0.37
2019-04-01T00:00:00Z    1.07
2019-05-01T00:00:00Z    1.03
2019-06-01T00:00:00Z    1.09
2019-07-01T00:00:00Z    1.03
2019-08-01T00:00:00Z    0.38
2019-09-01T00:00:00Z    0.41
2019-10-01T00:00:00Z    -0.45
 

2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62   2.35   2.03   1.25   0.52   0.45   0.56   1.88   1.17
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10   0.09   0.32   0.05   0.15   0.50
2018**   0.70   0.37  -0.05   0.11   0.11  -0.04   0.11   0.18   0.09   0.26  -0.05   0.52

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

It's not perfect, especially in the middle period, but people not including 2018-19 as an analog to this winter are a bit nuts to me. Oct/Nov will probably be ~0.2C different in Nino 3.4? Close to a rounding error. I think the pretty similar to last year honestly, just shifted somewhat east - that's the certainly the impression from the Fall.

Here is 2018 (10/01-10/15, 10/16-10/31, 11/01-11/11):

Here is 2019 (10/01-10/15, 10/16-10/31, 11/01-11/11):

Yea, its not a bad match. I just didn't include it in the composite bc I binned by QBO, but ENSO is similar...just a bit more delayed. I think this warm ENSO event is a bit better coupled with atmosphere, though.

We'll see.

[raindancewx]

Just for fun, since it is pretty rare -

El Nino. PDO in October of 0.00 to -1.00 on the JISAO index (it was -0.45). https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

El Nino	October	Nov-Apr
1951	-0.32	-1.02
1963	-0.52	-0.88
1965	-0.36	-0.44
1968	-0.34	-0.81
1977	-0.61	0.50
2004	-0.11	0.47
2006	-0.05	-0.04

Some very cold winters in the Southwest in that mix. 1963-64 is the coldest winter in 120+ years in New Mexico. 1965 is right behind it. 2006 is very cold too. 2004 and 2006 are also extremely wet. 

If you look at all October PDO values, 1931-2018, that were 0 to -1, November to April PDO values finish between +0.5 and -1.78. There are no strongly positive PDO cases. The years right around -0.45 in October tend to see the PDO stay between -0.5 and 0.0 for Nov-Apr. Overall, 18/24 cases of the PDO between 0 and -1 in Oct saw the PDO stay below average from Nov-Apr after an October value of -1 to 0.

The Neutral/Negative PDO + El Nino composite is a cold West composite - we'll have to see what happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Just for fun, since it is pretty rare -

El Nino. PDO in October of 0.00 to -1.00 on the JISAO index (it was -0.45). https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO

El Nino	October	Nov-Apr
1951	-0.32	-1.02
1963	-0.52	-0.88
1965	-0.36	-0.44
1968	-0.34	-0.81
1977	-0.61	0.50
2004	-0.11	0.47
2006	-0.05	-0.04

Some very cold winters in the Southwest in that mix. 1963-64 is the coldest winter in 120+ years in New Mexico. 1965 is right behind it. 2006 is very cold too. 2004 and 2006 are also extremely wet. 

If you look at all October PDO values, 1931-2018, that were 0 to -1, November to April PDO values finish between +0.5 and -1.78. There are no strongly positive PDO cases. The years right around -0.45 in October tend to see the PDO stay between -0.5 and 0.0 for Nov-Apr. Overall, 18/24 cases of the PDO between 0 and -1 in Oct saw the PDO stay below average from Nov-Apr after an October value of -1 to 0.

The Neutral/Negative PDO + El Nino composite is a cold West composite - we'll have to see what happens.

Agree. I expect near neautral or slightly positive PDO.

[raindancewx]

Right is for a -4 to -12 SOI Sept-Nov with a 0 to -1 Oct PDO. Left is El Nino winter + an Oct PDO of 0 to -1.

[raindancewx]

The new Jamstec is similarly cold for the US for winter as in the last run. It has really exaggerated the differences in the SSTs from the West Tropical Pacific and the East Tropical Pacific. I'd call it an El Nino. The West also trended much wetter. The temperature, sst and precip maps look a lot like my forecast now, although I don't expect the cold to penetrate as deep into the Southeast. The warm West/New England look strikes me as about right though.

[griteater]

^ Stronger +IOD look too, which makes sense (I think it will linger thru winter because of how strong it’s been ) 

[raindancewx]

This is why I went somewhat colder in the East than last year. Although I don't think this extent of the cold is quite right, I think it will be less cold and less warm on each end. All the modeling had the warm core of the El Nino around 120W last year, this year, it's shown around 180W.

I think my idea from late Sept/early Oct is still about right in the tropics - 

[raindancewx]

El Nino with a -PDO November. Indian Ocean is kind of nuts compared to last year too.

In real +PDO years, you have the warm ring around the cold waters.

[jaxjagman]

That is not a -PDO look right now

[jaxjagman]

There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down

[raindancewx]

As long as the waters away from the coast are much warmer than next to the coast, it is just a warm version of the negative PDO. It's not like October was that different but it was -0.45 on the JISAO index. I'm not disputing that the waters along the West Canada coast are still somewhat warm, but relatively speaking, they're colder than the waters south of Alaska.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

There has been some good rises in the SST's in the NEPac recently,just what the EPS is showing in it's 10 day forecast you should see the PDO uptick and not down

I think he's just pointing out that it wont be another 2015, which I agree with.

[Typhoon Tip]

Keep in mind ... 

PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation.   These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral.   They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature.  By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO.

Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. 

In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths.  In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.      

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Keep in mind ... 

PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation.   These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral.   They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature.  By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO.

Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. 

In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths.  In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.      

stuck this in the subforum also:

I also think the various indices (ENSO/PDO/AO, etc.) are resulting in different outcomes and we should be very cautious when we use analogs older than about 30 years.  There are some warm blobs in the oceans that seem to hang around from year to year.  The gulf stream is also warming more quickly than other parts of the ocean (more bombogenesis and higher precip outcomes? we're already seeing it.)