2019 ENSO

[raindancewx]

The 2017-18 La Nina was developed by this point. Right now, 2019-20 still looks Neutral. Those waters north and northwest of Australia should really inhibit any major cool down in the Nino zones. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 3.4 back to near 0, with Nino 1.2/3 warming back to cold-neutral from La Nina territory.

There is a lot of warmth set to come up in the West now too if you look at the 9/25 frame.

[Cerakoter1984]

So it would be a safe bet to say that any warming in the eastern Niño regions is temporal at best and should likely see more warming going forward in 3.4?

Also, do you know where a fellow could find SST reanalysis maps going back throughout the 1900s? I used to have a link to them years ago, but I cannot find it now. Thank you. I'm not on here much but I always like to pop in and read your creative, unique, and intelligent approaches to oceanic/atmospheric matters, raindancewx.

[raindancewx]

ONI weeklies all shot up again, and the weekly ENSO update PDF from CPC/NOAA has the subsurface above average again for 100-180W down to 300m.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04SEP2019     19.8-0.6     24.9 0.0     26.6-0.2     29.1 0.5
 11SEP2019     19.1-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.4-0.3     29.0 0.3
 18SEP2019     19.1-1.3     24.2-0.6     26.5-0.2     29.3 0.6
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1

The weeklies imply 26.68C or so in Nino 3.4, which is +0.15C for September, against 1951-2010 averages. Nino 1.2 would be -1.0C, Nino 3 -0.1C, Nino 3.4 +0.15C, and Nino 4 +1.0C, all against 1951-2010, assuming the monthlies match the weeklies - and they tend to except in Nino 1.2. The SOI finished around -13 in September. CPC uses different averages for differet time frames, my table below does not. The table linked here goes to the 1800s for estimating ONI from different data.

 https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Using actual SST data, not anomalies from CPC, 1992 remains a very strong match to 2019 so far in Nino 3.4 My winter analogs also look like what CPC is showing nationally for October, which I find encouraging.

[griteater]

17 hours ago, Cerakoter1984 said:

Also, do you know where a fellow could find SST reanalysis maps going back throughout the 1900s? I used to have a link to them years ago, but I cannot find it now.

You can get SST reanalysis maps back into the late 1800's here - https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/printpage.pl

[raindancewx]

The Canadian update for 9/30 still looks dramatically over cooled after October for the global oceans, with nearly all of Earth's cold/in blue. However, the air temperature maps and precipitation maps still look reasonable to me. October is depicted to retain the coolish Nino 1.2/3 with half of Nino 3.4 cold and half of it warm, and then Nino 4 warm.

The NAO went pretty negative in late September, will be curious to see what the final NAO value is for September. The PDO also looks less positive for September. If Nino 1.2 is near average in October but the PDO is still positive in September, it is likely that the PDO will remain slightly positive through winter, but not probably positive enough to drive cold into the far SE US persistently. 

I have my snow map ready for the winter forecast - a lot of places in the West that had heavy snow in late Sept/early Oct show up in the analogs. If I'm right, most of you will be pretty happy, outside of some areas in the Ozarks and Lakes that may get jacked. Neutral composites for snow are pretty interesting, but do "bend" a bit to ENSO order if that makes any sense. Generally speaking, I think the heavy snows move around a lot this cold season. Heavy snow events in Fall/Spring for the NW and Northern Plains, with SW in Nov-Dec and Feb-Mar, and then the NE/MW probably due well in Jan/Mar. Anyway, I'm fairly excited, it looks like a fun winter nationally. I do think parts of the West will be pretty warm, but not to the extent of 2013-14, 2014-15 or 2017-18. I looked at snowfall in my analog years for around 25 cities in the lower 48, most places do well or are near average, not many that are well below-average.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Some thoughts I had on ENSO....looks modoki to me at the moment....but last season is fresh in my mind. Very open to alternative lines of thinking.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html

Of course, the elephant in the room is that the most likely outcome is probably neutral, but I am not ready to discount the shot of a last moment, meager el nino.

[raindancewx]

These are the top SOI matches for July/Aug/Sept since 1931:

1946

1948

1951

1963

1969

1991

Outcome as a blend is a cold NW / warm East look for October, which doesn't seem too far off from reality, the models / CPC and my analogs all had that too.

1963-64 is a pretty extreme winter in December for the US, but it should drop out as a top SOI match soon, unless the SOI is around -15 again in October. If you look at October 1963, it is also the mother of all blow-torches for everywhere but California, so not exactly likely. Like last year, different MJO background in all likelihood.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, raindancewx said:

These are the top SOI matches for July/Aug/Sept since 1931:

1946

1948

1951

1963

1969

1991

Outcome as a blend is a cold NW / warm East look for October, which doesn't seem too far off from reality, the models / CPC and my analogs all had that too.

1963-64 is a pretty extreme winter in December for the US, but it should drop out as a top SOI match soon, unless the SOI is around -15 again in October. If you look at October 1963, it is also the mother of all blow-torches for everywhere but California, so not exactly likely. Like last year, different MJO background in all likelihood.

1969-70 has been high on my list all fall.

[frd]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some thoughts I had on ENSO....looks modoki to me at the moment....but last season is fresh in my mind. Very open to alternative lines of thinking.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html

Of course, the elephant in the room is that the most likely outcome is probably neutral, but I am not ready to discount the shot of a last moment, meager el nino.

IOD continues to climb and looks to go even higher. Implications for early winter seem likely.  

[raindancewx]

The subsurface data for 100-180W, 300m down, has finally broken (warmer) away from 2017. This is the closest match I could easily come up with for July-Sept.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

100-180W	July	Aug	Sept
1984	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37
2003	0.53	0.03	0.10
2013	0.41	0.32	0.38
1984	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37
2003	0.53	0.03	0.10
1984	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37
Mean	0.12	-0.05	-0.09
2019	0.13	-0.08	-0.05

1984 (x3), 2003 (x2), 2013 as a blend actually kind of looks like what I have for winter in the US, but from completely different analogs. Look at how much colder 2017 was by this point in the subsurface data. If you plot 1979-2018 September subsurface data against Nino 3.4 DJF temps, you'd expect about 26.6C give or take a few tenths of a degree at pretty high certainty.

100-180W	July	Aug	Sept
1984	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37
2003	0.53	0.03	0.10
2013	0.41	0.32	0.38
1984	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37
2003	0.53	0.03	0.10
1984	-0.25	-0.22	-0.37
Mean	0.12	-0.05	-0.09
2019	0.13	-0.08	-0.05
2017	0.16	-0.40	-0.79

[raindancewx]

European has the drop in Nino 3.4 for September.

 

 

[raindancewx]

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1

Nino 3.4 is still tracking very close to 1992 for recent months.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

1992   6   28.30   27.60    0.70
1992   7   27.51   27.19    0.33
1992   8   26.91   26.84    0.07
1992   9   26.66   26.78   -0.13

2019   6   28.19   27.65    0.54
2019   7   27.65   27.26    0.39
2019   8   26.91   26.91    0.00
2019   9   26.69   26.80   -0.11

For July-September, this is what I have as the top six objective matches in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, Nino 1.2: 1994, 2001, 2018, 1990, 2017, 1977.

For September alone: 2005, 2013, 2001, 1990, 1981, 1994

Keep in mind, Nino 4 was 29.3C in September - as warm as last year. Very hard to get a cold December in the East when Nino 4 is very warm, even if the NAO is negative.

Against 1951-2010 averages, this is what you get for the four zones in September:

Nino 4: +0.92C

Nino 3.4: +0.14C

Nino 3: -0.16C

Nino 1.2: -0.42C

Nino 1.2 is as cold as it was in 2017 in September, but Nino 4 is a warm as it was in 2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Year	DJF	JFM	FMA	MAM	AMJ	MJJ	JJA	JAS	ASO	SON	OND	NDJ
2010	1.5	1.3	0.9	0.4	-0.1	-0.6	-1.0	-1.4	-1.6	-1.7	-1.7	-1.6
2011	-1.4	-1.1	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.9	-1.1	-1.1	-1.0
2012	-0.8	-0.6	-0.5	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0	-0.2
2013	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3	-0.3	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.2	-0.2	-0.3
2014	-0.4	-0.4	-0.2	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.7
2015	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.2	1.5	1.8	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.6
2016	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.0	0.5	0.0	-0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-0.7	-0.7	-0.6
2017	-0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-1.0
2018	-0.9	-0.8	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	0.9	0.8
2019	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.1

Nino 3.4 is still tracking very close to 1992 for recent months.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

1992   6   28.30   27.60    0.70
1992   7   27.51   27.19    0.33
1992   8   26.91   26.84    0.07
1992   9   26.66   26.78   -0.13

2019   6   28.19   27.65    0.54
2019   7   27.65   27.26    0.39
2019   8   26.91   26.91    0.00
2019   9   26.69   26.80   -0.11

For July-September, this is what I have as the top six objective matches in Nino 4, Nino 3.4, Nino 3, Nino 1.2: 1994, 2001, 2018, 1990, 2017, 1977.

For September alone: 2005, 2013, 2001, 1990, 1981, 1994

Keep in mind, Nino 4 was 29.3C in September - as warm as last year. Very hard to get a cold December in the East when Nino 4 is very warm, even if the NAO is negative.

Against 1951-2010 averages, this is what you get for the four zones in September:

Nino 4: +0.92C

Nino 3.4: +0.14C

Nino 3: -0.16C

Nino 1.2: -0.42C

Nino 1.2 is as cold as it was in 2017 in September, but Nino 4 is a warm as it was in 2018.

3 of your 6 best ENSO matches went on to become el nino events.

Interesting that you link mild Decembers in east to warm region 4. When region 4 is above +0.5c in latter September as it was this season, the odds are very high for el nino since 1990. I listed the data set in my blog. Full of strong Ninos, and weak ones that were cold in the east, save for 1994.

[raindancewx]

The matches for the three months show up as El Ninos because July was still warm in Nino 3.4, and so it looks like a developing El Nino. That's why by September alone, the matches don't look like an El Nino. Most of the modelling had been showing a warm-rebound in Fall since the Summer, I don't really the big deal. Nino 3.4 needs to reach 27.0C for an extended period just to be a weak El Nino, it has has been dropping in absolute terms and by anomalies since Summer. There is still cold water below the surface from about 120-140W, and Nino 1.2/3 are still around average, despite Nino 4 being very warm. It looks like a flat-Neutral to me by CPC designation, with some warm weeks and some cool weeks.

Look at the Nino 4 years that are around 29.3C (29.1-29.5C) in September - its a very warm signal for the Northern US. (the image should say 29.1-29.5C in Sept)

We went through this last year, and Nino 4 is nearly identical. Nino 4 is a only weak signal for warmth in the North, but near record values with a weak signal still implies warmth. Also, the big -SOI in September supports a warm East in December. I personally don't care if an El Nino develops, Modoki El Ninos and +PDO Neutrals behave similarly here. With last year included, the NE corridor still tends to not do well for snow in low-solar El Ninos if that is what is to happen.

These are the closest Nino 4 years for September (29.1C-29.5C). They are all El Ninos - but keep in mind Nino 4 is warming much more rapidly than the other Nino zones. That's part of why you guys in the East have had such trouble getting a cold December since Nino 4 is correlated to December in the East for temps. 1989-2018 Septembers in Nino 4 are 28.75C on average, compared to 28.11C in 1950-1979. If the 2017 Nino 4 reading was applied to the older average, it'd be +0.6C, but a La Nina still developed, one that had the coldest Nino 1.2 readings for a while: 30 to 40 years in several months. My interpretation is if we had data for 2005-2035 in Nino 4, you'd find it was only +0.2C, instead of +0.55C. There are plenty of years when Nino 4 is +0.2C against the "centered climate average", that do not become El Ninos.

2004	29.45
1997	29.44
2006	29.40
2002	29.37
2018	29.34
2009	29.33
2019	29.32
1994	29.30
1969	29.16
2014	29.16

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not opposed to a relatively mild December and I still definitely favor a warm-neutral ENSO. My point was I don't think the ship has entirely sailed on a marginal el nino.

As far as the sst anomalies go, a +.55C in 1950 is means the same thing in 2019...sure, overall temps are warming, but anomalies are relative.

[raindancewx]

Some of your old friends are showing up as MJO analogs, i.e. the MJO getting stuck in phase 1 in October (1994, 2012, and even 2018 are fairly similar):

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Some of your old friends are showing up as MJO analogs, i.e. the MJO getting stuck in phase 1 in October (1994, 2012, and even 2018 are fairly similar):

2012 ended up being a fine winter out here. 

[jaxjagman]

I usually just post on our sub-forum every once in awhile post  here,but why do ya'll keep thinking this will be a west based Nino and not a wide spread Nino,the subsurface to me is just brutal warm to suggest this

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I usually just post on our sub-forum every once in awhile post  here,but why do ya'll keep thinking this will be a west based Nino and not a wide spread Nino,the subsurface to me is just brutal warm to suggest this

Its probably not going to be an el nino at all, but the surface and subsurface warmth is definitely biased west.

[jaxjagman]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its probably not going to be an el nino at all, but the surface and subsurface warmth is definitely biased west.

Not sure if that is going to be  right,these SST'S seemingly keep getting warmer east of the IDL  into the surface and into the thermocline,guess we'll see.I can see the warmth more basin wide tho

[jaxjagman]

 Think in the long range you should see what this WWB does before a robust  Rossby wave kills it off around 120W into region 3,this could really warm region 3 up seemingly and even spawn up a new Kelvin with this, CFS has been rather consistent with this

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, bares watching....I have not written el nino off. And the modoki rating can change swiftly, as we saw last year.

[raindancewx]

I've been assuming Neutral, but we'll see what the weeklies do this week. If we spike to +1 or something then I've probably got to change my forecast to assume an El Nino. A low solar El Nino winter after a low-solar El Nino would be unprecedented for at least the last 90 years although 1953-54 is kind of close (9.5 sunspots, after a 26.9C ENSO).

My hesitation is Nino 3 - there are no Octobers with Nino 3 as cold as it was last week on the weeklies (since 1990) that became El Ninos. It's possible some of the old Ninos did it prior to 1990. Nino 3 has a lot less warming long-term than Nino 4, so I look at it as a better indicator. The European also has a reversal/weakening SOI signal (high pressure by Tahiti lower by Australia) long term, which may weaken the pulses of warm water moving East soon.

Sometimes the double El Ninos die in the Summer and then re-form in winter. 1976/1977, 1986/1987 had breaks.  

In 1992, the neutral-ish Nino 3.4 held on through winter before developing into an El Nino in early 1993 again. Given the Nino 3.4 match to 1992, I've been assuming the cool waters in Nino 1.2/3 would occasionally spill West and hold off enough warming for winter to be considered Neutral - even if Nino 3.4 is back up to 27.0C or by February.

[raindancewx]

I'm about ready to wave the white flag on a Neutral at this point. My Neutral analogs included three El Ninos anyway, so I just have to re-do my forecast using the new weighting of the six years I like. Still want to see what the October ENSO plume from the ECMWF has. There are no warm-Neutral years in low solar since 1952-53, so I'd bump from 26.5C to 27.0C ish. The US temperature map doesn't even change that much, mostly December impacted, and then generally less blocking and less snow for the NE if I change the weighting. Nino 1.2/3 look like they're getting cold again this on Tropical Tidbits, that may make it to Nino 3.4 before the warmth below Nino 3.4/4 surfaces. Part of why I want to see the European - it did have the warm up in October in Nino 3.4 after all.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 04SEP2019     19.8-0.6     24.9 0.0     26.6-0.2     29.1 0.5
 11SEP2019     19.1-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.4-0.3     29.0 0.3
 18SEP2019     19.1-1.3     24.2-0.6     26.5-0.2     29.3 0.6
 25SEP2019     20.0-0.5     24.8-0.1     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.1
 02OCT2019     20.0-0.6     25.1 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.7 1.0

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, I never understood why some were dismissing chances for weak el nino with region 4 being so warm.

[frd]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I never understood why some were dismissing chances for weak el nino with region 4 being so warm.

Better late than never. 

 

This is interesting as well 

 

image of above for Sept 2019

 

[raindancewx]

There are no low-solar El Ninos after a low-solar El Nino for at least the last sixty years, some debatable cases in the 1950s - (1952 and 1953, but I consider 1952-53 to not be an El Nino). So going against it was pretty sensible. I still have this sense that the El Nino trying to form now will still fail somehow. That being said...my analogs last year were 1953, 1976, 1986, 1994, 2006 - 1976 and 1986 were both followed by El Ninos, and Summer has been fairly close to 1995 nationally.

Last time a low solar El Nino followed a low solar El Nino was in the 1910s if you use 50-sunspots or less from July-June, in both El Ninos as the threshold. That would be the 1914-15 winter, when it hit -7F in January with 27.5 inches of snow in Albuquerque at an observation site lower in elevation and south of the current airport. I believe it is the snowiest winter here and across the Southwest generally since the 1890s. 

The 1913-14 winter actually has a passing resemblance to last year if you lag the timing so that's pretty interesting. The ECMWF plume update for October still isn't up from what I can see. Probably a big change in the forecast.

The MJO similarities to 2018, 2012, 1994 even 2009, 2007, 2004 to some extent aren't real bullish for the NE for winter. 1995 had been a strong analog for me, but it is fading away now, the crappier snow winters for the NE are somewhat stronger analogs now, if an El Nino forms. My old analogs had the warmth reaching 140W in the tropical pacific in Nino 3.4, which is where it is now. It will probably continue to 100-120W over time - question is how soon. It's still very cold in the Eastern Tropical Pacific. The fade of warmth by Alaska is consistent with the PDO going negative by the way. That warm tongue from Japan to south of Alaska should not be there at all in a positive PDO year. Hard to get cold in the Southeast if that setup remains.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Raindance, I have garnered alot of respect for your methodology over the past year, but I'm a bit confounded as to how you interpret a weak el nino as an unfavorable development for NE winter. I get that you weigh solar very heavily, but betting against NE winter in a weak modoki el nino, if that does indeed materialize, is a risky proposition. 

We'll see...maybe you will nail it. You certainly know your stuff.

Anyway, four of the six seasons that you mentioned featured above average snowfall in Boston...of course, 1994 and 2018 were awful. 2007 was epic in CNE and NNE. 2004 was epic in the Boston area, 2009 epic in mid atl.

1994 is actually good ENSO match, but its going to fall out of favor if the eastern ENSO regions don't spike a great deal this month.

 

[Isotherm]

A strict construction of the ENSO-oceanic analysis may reveal neutral tending toward weak nino, but inclusion of the GSDM into the analysis yields a different conclusion. The total sum of momentum additions/subtractions evinces an apparent deficit/easterly momentum dominating the tropical/sub-tropical domains, and as such, retrogressive features will be the mainstay of the short to medium term. Whether the GWO neutralizes, thereby comporting more with the oceanic appearance remains to be seen.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Isotherm said:

A strict construction of the ENSO-oceanic analysis may reveal neutral tending toward weak nino, but inclusion of the GSDM into the analysis yields a different conclusion. The total sum of momentum additions/subtractions evinces an apparent deficit/easterly momentum dominating the tropical/sub-tropical domains, and as such, retrogressive features will be the mainstay of the short to medium term. Whether the GWO neutralizes, thereby comporting more with the oceanic appearance remains to be seen.

 

ah ha ... -1 + + 1 = 0