2019 ENSO

[raindancewx]

Nino 4 is stubborn, but even the warmth there has been getting its ass kicked a bit.

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4

 04MAR2020     27.5 1.1     27.0 0.1     27.5 0.5     29.3 1.1
 11MAR2020     26.7 0.3     27.5 0.5     27.7 0.5     29.3 1.2
 18MAR2020     26.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.1 0.8     29.4 1.2
 25MAR2020     27.0 0.8     27.5 0.3     27.9 0.5     28.9 0.6
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1

[raindancewx]

Subsurface waters in May for 100-180W down to 300m were the coldest they've been (relatively) since October 2017. Huge flip from March to May.

Keep your eyes on the hurricane season - in La Nina years, the ACE Index for the Atlantic is a good leading indicator for whether the West will be cold or not in the winter. Years with low ACE Index values in La Ninas (2007) tend to be cooler than years with very high ACE index values (2017).

 

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 04MAR2020     27.5 1.1     27.0 0.1     27.5 0.5     29.3 1.1
 11MAR2020     26.7 0.3     27.5 0.5     27.7 0.5     29.3 1.2
 18MAR2020     26.9 0.5     27.6 0.4     28.1 0.8     29.4 1.2
 25MAR2020     27.0 0.8     27.5 0.3     27.9 0.5     28.9 0.6
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2

Good old Nino 4 is still stubbornly warm. But Nino 3 is essentially in La Nina conditions.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0

Lots of cooling this week. June may end up being the start of La Nina conditions officially - we'll see.

[Yanksfan]

23 hours ago, raindancewx said:

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0

Lots of cooling this week. June may end up being the start of La Nina conditions officially - we'll see.

That doesn’t bode well for snow fanatics like myself where I reside if those conditions persist into next winter. That would make it three clunker years in a row.

[raindancewx]

For those of you in the NE, I've been playing around with this in La Nina.

In High ACE Atlantic years, the NE tends to see vastly more snow. In Low ACE Atlantic years, the SW tends to do better for snow, while the NE does worse. 1933, 1995, 2005, 2017 are the worst winters in the SW period (hot, dry) in the past 100 years - all low solar, super high ACE, La Nina.

If you had to draw a canonical La Nina snow map, I think it varies like this (La Ninas average 130 ACE). It seems to me that the storms curve up the coast inland in good years for the SW, the Low ACE years with the high more over the SE US forcing that. Opposite in High ACE years - nothing to force the storms to over the SW at all - the storms miss north or south typically (remember all the snow in Monterrey and Houston, etc in 2017-18?).

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Subsurface certainly looks like healthy La Nina.. it won't go there I think officially.. "Nuetral" global conditions are too prevalent (maybe we'll max out -0.5 to -0.7). 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gif

[andyhb]

Still needs to spread west more if we're going to get a stronger event.

[raindancewx]

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2

Some warmth returning to Nino 4 is consistent with the subsurface recently. We're sort of in a 100-150W La Nina instead of a 120-170W (Nino 3.4) La Nina.

[StormchaserChuck!]

^Looks like a Moderate Nina coming, as per the subsurface. Will be interesting to see if the surface 3.4 breaks -0.7 now or in the next 3 years.

(Tao/Triton isn't as strong, I've found better correlation in TAO/Triton).

[raindancewx]

I'm expecting a weak La Nina for winter, but only because it seems difficult to get Nino 4 to be cold for a sustained period. If it ends up at 29.3C again the Fall/Winter, you can pretty much write off winter in the NE, as December will be warm, and then Feb is favored warm for a La Nina, unless the hurricane season goes ballistic.

The warmth from the West if anything seems to be rebuilding. The initial wave of cold will get reinforced to the east for a bit, and then probably mix out a bit. Will need another wave of cold for a La Nina to sustain from Fall on. Nino 3 does look really cold for at least a little while though, maybe -1.0C or colder. Spatially, there just enough that much cold on the subsurface maps, even though it is intensely cold. The little patches of +0.5 to +1.0 are starting to get near the western part of Nino 3.4 again though.

 

[raindancewx]

Nino 3.4 warmed up a lot this week. No La Nina yet. Nino 4 is of course invincible.

                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2
 24JUN2020     21.6-0.8     25.8-0.4     27.6 0.1     29.3 0.5

[andyhb]

The last several weak Ninas (1996, 2002, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2017, 2018) haven't exactly been promising for severe season either with quiet Mays and Junes for the most part. Would be a real downer after this year went completely down the drain post-April.

[raindancewx]

The Canadian has a pretty healthy La Nina in the monthly update. New forecast is on the left. Will be interesting to see what happens. I think this is too cold in Nino 4 at least.

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 01APR2020     26.8 0.8     27.9 0.6     28.1 0.6     29.1 0.7
 08APR2020     26.5 0.8     28.0 0.6     28.2 0.6     29.4 1.0
 15APR2020     25.6 0.1     28.2 0.7     28.5 0.7     29.4 0.9
 22APR2020     25.4 0.2     28.1 0.7     28.4 0.6     29.2 0.7
 29APR2020     25.1 0.1     27.7 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.4
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2
 24JUN2020     21.6-0.8     25.8-0.4     27.6 0.1     29.3 0.5
 01JUL2020     21.1-1.1     25.5-0.5     27.3-0.1     29.1 0.3

 

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0

 

According to CPC's standard, Nino 3.4 was still cold Neutral in June. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

2020   4   28.18   27.73    0.45
2020   5   27.65   27.85   -0.19
2020   6   27.36   27.65   -0.29

[StormchaserChuck!]

Yeah, the global system is not going to go La Nina below -0.8c 3.4 ONI. Weird. Invest in stocks. 

[raindancewx]

There is a lot of warm water now below the surface of Nino 3.4 and Nino 4. I think winter may end up looking like 2012-13, with a lot of cold water by South America, but Nino 4 still fairly warm and Nino 3.4 either cold Neutral or only barely a La Nina. I kind of like 25.8-26.2C for Nino 3.4 in Dec-Feb. To me, below 26.0C is a La Nina.

[raindancewx]

Something to watch in the coming weeks - we've never had a La Nina in DJF, i.e. Nino 3.4 below 26.0C for that period - when the waters below the surface of 100-180W  at the equator are warmer than average in August. 

The June reading for 100-180w below the surface was -0.6, but there has been a steady warming of the cool subsurface waters. I don't know that August is a lock to be below 0 at this point.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2
 24JUN2020     21.6-0.8     25.8-0.4     27.6 0.1     29.3 0.5
 01JUL2020     21.1-1.1     25.5-0.5     27.3-0.1     29.1 0.3
 08JUL2020     21.1-0.8     25.3-0.5     27.2-0.1     29.1 0.3

At the surface, the eastern areas are colder than La Ninas that developed in 2005 and 2017. But the subsurface was flipping colder in those years in July. It is still trending warmer at the moment. Still think a La Nina is possible, but it does have some headwinds going against it at the moment.

[andyhb]

This might help.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Globals a little more solid now. 

[raindancewx]

Looks like the cold east / warm west should continue for a bit in the Nino zones. Not really a whole lot of intense warmth or cold in the Nino 3.4 zone.

The Euro is still more on board with a cold Neutral than a La Nina too -

[raindancewx]

We're still in a non-Nina

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 06MAY2020     24.8 0.2     27.4 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.0 0.3
 13MAY2020     24.5 0.2     27.0-0.1     27.6-0.3     29.0 0.3
 20MAY2020     23.9-0.1     26.4-0.6     27.4-0.4     28.9 0.1
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2
 24JUN2020     21.6-0.8     25.8-0.4     27.6 0.1     29.3 0.5
 01JUL2020     21.1-1.1     25.5-0.5     27.3-0.1     29.1 0.3
 08JUL2020     21.1-0.8     25.3-0.5     27.2-0.1     29.1 0.3
 15JUL2020     20.2-1.5     25.1-0.6     27.0-0.2     28.8 0.0

The 2017 event came on super late though - have to watch for that. The very cold water below eastern Nino 3/1.2 seems to be surfacing now.

 10MAY2017     25.4 1.0     27.8 0.6     28.3 0.5     29.1 0.4
 17MAY2017     25.2 1.1     27.6 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.0 0.3
 24MAY2017     24.2 0.4     27.5 0.6     28.4 0.6     29.1 0.3
 31MAY2017     23.7 0.2     27.2 0.5     28.3 0.6     29.2 0.4
 07JUN2017     23.1-0.1     26.9 0.3     28.1 0.4     29.3 0.5
 14JUN2017     22.9 0.0     26.7 0.2     28.2 0.5     29.4 0.6
 21JUN2017     22.9 0.3     26.7 0.4     28.3 0.7     29.5 0.7
 28JUN2017     22.8 0.4     26.5 0.4     28.1 0.7     29.4 0.6
 05JUL2017     21.7-0.3     26.1 0.2     28.0 0.6     29.4 0.6
 12JUL2017     21.8 0.0     26.1 0.4     27.8 0.5     29.3 0.5
 19JUL2017     21.4-0.1     25.7 0.2     27.6 0.4     29.2 0.4
 26JUL2017     21.3 0.0     25.5 0.1     27.1 0.0     28.9 0.2
 02AUG2017     20.9-0.1     25.4 0.1     27.2 0.2     28.9 0.2
 09AUG2017     20.5-0.3     25.1 0.0     26.7-0.2     28.7 0.1
 16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
 23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2

[raindancewx]

I don't see anything to force big changes in Nino 3.4 at the moment, for say 2-4 weeks. Everything is remarkably near average below the surface down to 200m in Nino 3.4

[raindancewx]

For reference:

Big time cooling from a warm MJJ in 2017 is not happening right now. Instead, there is a warming trend for May. This is consistent with the SW cooling off recently. When there are big drops in subsurface heat, we fry with almost no moisture. When there is a big warm up, it cools off and gets stormier - pretty much immediately. We were very hot here in Apr/May but have cooled off in June, and have trended much colder lately in July. January 2017 was also extremely wet.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Believe it or not, there's more Atlantic tropical storms in negative-Neutral vs La Nina. We are already on "I" in July, which I think is a record. It keeps the strong currents more neutral. 

[raindancewx]

Closer this week. Nino 4 continues to resist cooling meaningfully.

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 27MAY2020     23.3-0.4     26.3-0.5     27.3-0.5     28.7-0.1
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2
 24JUN2020     21.6-0.8     25.8-0.4     27.6 0.1     29.3 0.5
 01JUL2020     21.1-1.1     25.5-0.5     27.3-0.1     29.1 0.3
 08JUL2020     21.1-0.8     25.3-0.5     27.2-0.1     29.1 0.3
 15JUL2020     20.2-1.5     25.1-0.6     27.0-0.2     28.8 0.0
 22JUL2020     20.2-1.2     25.0-0.5     26.8-0.4     28.7-0.1

[The_Global_Warmer]

The equatorial  winds like cant get any better for setting up nine.

 

Given the last 90 days I would expect the sub surface to be much cooler. 

 

Given the wind forecast a deep cold pool should redevelop. 

 

Geezus

[raindancewx]

The heat content of the upper 300m of 100-180W at the equator warmed to near average temperatures in July. Still colder than in 2017 which did become a La Nina late. But, the trend in 2017 was already sharply down by this down by point - not up. In 2017, you had across the board cooling in July. We've had across the board uninterrupted warming since May.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

YR    MON   130E-80W   160E-80W   180W-100W 

2017    4     0.34      0.28       0.06
2017    5     0.37      0.36       0.30
2017    6     0.21      0.22       0.22
2017    7     0.13      0.15       0.16
2017    8    -0.19     -0.21      -0.40

2020    4    -0.20     -0.24      -0.30
2020    5    -0.51     -0.70      -0.92
2020    6    -0.35     -0.54      -0.62
2020    7    -0.10     -0.22      -0.13

[raindancewx]

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03JUN2020     23.1-0.3     26.0-0.7     27.3-0.4     29.0 0.2
 10JUN2020     22.2-0.8     25.7-0.9     27.1-0.6     28.8 0.0
 17JUN2020     22.2-0.5     25.7-0.7     27.2-0.4     29.1 0.2
 24JUN2020     21.6-0.8     25.8-0.4     27.6 0.1     29.3 0.5
 01JUL2020     21.1-1.1     25.5-0.5     27.3-0.1     29.1 0.3
 08JUL2020     21.1-0.8     25.3-0.5     27.2-0.1     29.1 0.3
 15JUL2020     20.2-1.5     25.1-0.6     27.0-0.2     28.8 0.0
 22JUL2020     20.2-1.2     25.0-0.5     26.8-0.4     28.7-0.1
 29JUL2020     20.1-1.1     24.7-0.7     26.3-0.8     28.4-0.4

CPC had May-July at -0.2C. The current weekly data actually looks like a La Nina - we'll see if it continues.